Member Info for Thunder2040

Netflix trading at all time highs with subscriber numbers at a record. Given Zoo is an award winning supplier you'd certainly expect the pipeline to look fairly promising. The CFO is seeing through the results so I think it's an orderly departure tbh

The potential trading at 0.2x book with profitable book. Well yeah I suppose I should thank the pressure for alerting me to the absurdity in value, I'll check in on my holding after April because I can see this is going to get walked all over the place until then

Dunno why we accept this kind of thing tbh. Lawyers making fat feed on legal cases, shorters hammering prices down for a profit, foreign players shopping in and asset stripping...UK market is a total mess

Are we really going down this route again..yawn lol. So we are going to bust a 100+ year old bank for selling car loans in compliance with FCA regulations and with APRs accepted by all customers in writing. So all the asset backed finance can just disappear along with it. I just don't get the premise of this whole thing. It's complete lunacy..but if we must let's go back and start again from 200p

Doing a pretty good job..someone gets lucky and can buy down here

Wonder who is selling, seems very odd to me

Isn't it trading at about 0.2x book value. So net assets would be circa £2.2b, say £300-400m settlement payments, would give £1.8-1.9b remaining in equity, mcap £450m. So it's very very cheap now

UK is regulating it's finance sector out of existence..it's actually really serious the more I read. I think common sense has to prevail. The consumers accepted the APRs being offered, if they didn't like the price they should have walked away. Why are they then owed redress. I don't get what we are trying to achieve with this.

What I never got about this ruling was how it actually matters. The price was agreed, whether their was a sub commission involved is irrelevant. Think about how many transactions have an element of commission that is paid across unbeknown to the buyer. It's ridiculous that the ruling was made..with an open ended liability. For once government has actually done the right thing. IMO only.

Think shorts think we were born yesterday, good luck getting your 5%+ back here, it's going to squeeze.

How long does it take to sell a few buses. If no disposal news forthcoming when are we to expect a trading statement for Mobico, does anyone know?

I think infrastructure funds pay a premium for lower risk income streams which school bus is. There are two recent comparable transactions of school bus businesses both indicating the multiple involved arriving at $1b + valuation. A private equity company can flip a business like that very easily as it is. The cosmans will take Alsa themselves, the sum of parts here is worth way more than the group as it stands.

How much is the NA bus division likely to sell for, I did run numbers on this one ages ago based on First Group's disposal but can't remember. I think with revenue growth of 11% and current exchange rate a buy out for US company is a no brainer

It's a risk I don't think goes away under current government

I had that down as selling but could be wrong

The current issue here is...labour government will tax anything and everything, so showing a profit is like a come get me flag..which is why evoke is still not in the portfolio currently

I also wondered lately if there is an overhang here from another big holder exiting. Gil said part of the overhang was removed by Aftica Oil by transaction, so was it loose terminology or is there more. There always seems a steady stream of sells whenever this tries any upwards movement beyond £0.12

Theoretically the deal was already known so price itself had already incorporated this as did presumably the broker target which must be based on a successful drill to be that high. Main catalysts here are now 3b/4b drill date and spud and a farm out of other licenses...but I hope it's not another 6 months

Well the share price is flat today so pretty obvious everyone here can see the wood for the trees. Farmouts are the real catalyst so we live in hope

You could be right