Member Info for ThinIce

There was no negative news when the share price fell 30%, so why does there have to be positive news when it rises 16%? Maybe the book just looks better?

To be fair, some of us have been around for some 2-3 years (Radar included). We thought we were buying into an oil and gas play and there was a time when it looked quite interesting. Then came the demise of the oil price, a duster in Morocco, a fall in the share price and the departure of our expertise. Some of us attended a presentation by the company where we were lied to by the then FD Will Holland and within months, we were re-branded a healthcare company (largely through a premature slip by Cathel Friel to a reporter in December 2014). And... here we are. Some of us LT holders are nursing heavy losses and are now invested in something we don't really understand. That said, I am optimistic from what I have read that we can make a good go of it with orphan products, a fair amount of cash in the bank and some of the best brains in the pharmaceutical industry, but there is no guarantee that this will be taken up by the market on 19th and I share the view that we should be cautious. To assert that the price will rise (or fall) by any percentage following re-listing is unfounded. As someone said earlier, no-one knows. I hope it does rise, but I have heard no convincing argument. Whatever you think of someone's posting history, the initial question is entirely valid. If there was a realistic prospect that this will rise on relisting by a significant percentage, it would not be possible to buy at 3p now. Maybe the price will rise later this week and early next.... Happy to discuss however... After all, we have a week! Best wishes ThinIce

Agreed! Why wait for the RTO? Buy in today at 3p and ride the wave on 19th with your shares re-listed at 24p. If that's what you think will happen post RTO!!!

Apologies, I meant: For that reason, there is no point buying 'above' 3p...

Hi AmoebaSon I was initially confused by this. The share will relist at 24p whatever the share price does in the interim. For that reason, there is no point buying under 3p unless you think it will climb sharply on day 1 of trading (19th) and there is a chance you wont get your entry price. My broker seems to think that we will get an indication of how well it will taken up by the market on day 1, by the price 1-3 days prior to re-listing. If it rises, the market is anticipating a rise above 24p (and vice versa) I too do not understand why it was not left suspended. This would have been much cleaner in my view. I would be interested to hear anyone else's views however. Thanks ThinIce

My understanding is that no value will be attributed to these assets and that they have already been written down within the accounts. Whilst CF did allude to trying to sell the licences initially, in a more recent article, he suggesting they would be handing them back. The Celtic Sea 3D survey however may be useful to someone who subsequently takes the licences on. This survey is valued at some $20 Mill, although I wouldn't hold your breath!

I think anyone buying in has to be a good sign but more particularly someone with intimate knowledge of the business. There is stock available however and very little buying since so Griffiths is clearly in no hurry. Maybe he wants to make a point - I understand his departure from the business was on not too pleasant terms! Yawn!

I think there is a high chance we will get a clarifying RNS (possibly tomorrow). They were very quick to respond to Cathel Friel's daft comments. In fact LOGP may feel the need to explain their rapid rise too.

Yes - its been a long journey Chimp. My average here is about 9p. Still, one good bit of news and I could halve my losses and that would feel a whole lot better! Good luck mate.

Article, not RNS

What about a share based acquisition by Fastnet? Would that not be less complicated? The RNS states that a 'complete sale' is the most likely outcome.

AIM rules state: An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge concerning a change in: 1. Its financial condition 2. Its trading sphere 3. The performance of its business, or 4. Its expectation of its performance which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a substantial movement in the price of its AIM securities. As we are at cash levels, there is nothing factored in for any of the company's assets. The expiration of a licence is unlikely to have any effect on the price. Whilst I do think they will let us know, I don't think its incumbent upon them quite simply because of the position we find ourselves in. ThinIce

Thanks Early Bird At the risk of sounding pedantic, we were not advised of the expiration of the Tendrara licence until after it expired. It expired on 31st December and we were informed on 2nd January. I am not sure they are under any obligation to inform us anyway. Personally, I am not expecting ground breaking news on this. I think something would have leaked by now if it were positive. Perhaps an extension at best! Best wishes ThinIce

Radar I agree that CL will not be sitting on her hands. I am not so sure that an acquisition is right either. Whilst $18 Million could allow the company to pick up a struggling explorer/producer, it is the additional capex requirement going forward that make a lot of these companies/deals look unattractive - simply too high risk. There is not much appetite for farm outs as we know with the majors cutting exploration budgets and so any acquisition would need to be on the presumption that the new enlarged business can not only find oil, but produce it too. I suspect a JV may be the way forward and I (personally) wonder whether they may be furthering the relationships with other Celtic Sea explorers. I know that Lansdowne and Fast have presented together in the past, although the link may have been through PG. With regard to Morocco, other that try to convince SK to take on a second drill, there is presumably not much more CL can do! Good luck.

Providence have a market cap of £16M and an 80% stake in Barryroe (partnered with LOGP - see post before) which has been farmed out. They too will have a rig in the Celtic Sea. Either (or both) would be a good fit!

LOGP have a market cap of £8M and a 20% stake in Barryroe which has been farmed out. They are short of cash and will have a rig in the Celtic Sea. That's a good fit!

Thai The last corporate presentation was 27 January as was the last RNS. That's 2 weeks ago. I wouldn't expect any further news in the short term (2-6 weeks). However they decide to spend our money (return of cash, furtherance of farm out deals, new acquisitions), its going to take a while to crystallise any one of these. And if they do it right, so it should!

I am on the mailing list for a couple of the previous organisers and I have not heard of any. Whilst I was being flippant in an earlier post about cash burn, I do believe they will turn things around. The fall is no doubt a result of the falling oil price and the lack of interest by the major's in exploration. CF's gaff was after all only a symptom of this and the share would have fallen to cash levels (and below) without his input. As we all know the cash balance is what is keeping us here and how we choose to invest it going forward. I am glad that there is no knee-jerk reaction from the board and I would hope that CL is taking a very considered look at the potential that is out there. We all know that there are producers that can be picked up for less than the £18M but I'm not now sure that benefits us. Our game is high risk exploration and thats were the expertise is. I would prefer we took the opportunity to buy up some interesting acreage or looked to partner those that are in farm out negotiations. The majors will have to start thinking about exploration at some point and replenishing reserves. A farm out deal agreed in the next 6 months would not start until later in the year/early next and a Sky News commentator today has said that we may have a recovery in 12 to 18 months. The timing could therefore be critical. Why buy a producer and manage a loss making organisation whilst we await the recovery? Just my view ThinIce

As far as I can tell there are only two people working in the business as well as two NEDs in shared offices. I would think about $25k a month would be reasonable!!

Would be interesting to see what an up to date broker note would now say..... This makes reference to Tendrara which we all believed was the major route to monetisation. Tendrara is no longer in play since the option expired 31 December 2014.