Member Info for ThinIce

That’s my target too. I don’t think a market cap of £350m to £400m is unreasonable for a company that is at the forefront of human challenge, is in a market it entirely dominates and who appear to be conquering the Asia Pacific region.

If you Google ‘hardman and Cathal friel’ you get a Q&A from August 2020 where he makes his ambitions to grow revenues and exit pretty clear.

I have no doubt this will be sold, it’s CF’s modus operandi. It’s almost certainly in someone’s sights right now and I suspect they’ll want to make a move whilst it’s relatively cheap.

The best part about this RNS is the fact it’s another contract win in Asia Pacific.

I’m after 1.50. That’s the £1B valuation we were promised by the man!

Think you may have the wrong poster. I seem to recall it was your good self that was calling it a ponzi scheme in December.

I may have criticised CF and I stand by those comments. Otherwise I have been in this stock for 18 months and have not sold a single share.

I think you are a bit of an oddball, but I forgive you.

Cheers

Steady stream on 100k and 50k trades going through.

I think someone is building a sizeable stake. Should know soon enough.

Amryt have just been bought for (up to) $1.25B. Wonder if CF kept any of his shares?

Trading update on 25th January on year end figures. No debt, £20M in cash and £80M pipeline. Trading update should help with you other questions.

Revenues do not = profits.

Of course you are right, but conversely, you cant have profits without revenue and the order book here is strong.

This period is about establishing the business and gaining market share, much like Orange did in the 90’s (they didn’t make a profit for over 10 years).

I accept that the share price won’t rise until we see sizeable and sustained profits, but give the business a chance, we are still a very young business.

I came across OO a couple of years back and thought it was is the right space at the right time. Coincidentally, I had held Fastnet shares in the past where CF was Chairman. I attended a Fastnet investor meet where he presented. This was during a drilling operation in Morocco. He absolutely indicated that the drill had been successful, when later it was determined it was a duster. Many at the meet invested in the basis of what he said.

More fool me for investing here you could say. That said, the guy does not have day to day involvement in the business and has handed the reigns (it appears) to someone more competent.

I think however we are living with CF’s legacy. He is not considered trustworthy and this was echoed at another Amryt presentation I attended shortly after he moved on from there. He is always looking for something else (an admission he made himself), and this coupled with his ‘quick win’ mindset does nothing for stability.

So, am I missing something here:

1. Razza is saying that covid is not really a problem (he’s provided good links);
2. Flu is more of an issue;
3. Current Challenge Studies are not based on Covid (nor will they be);
4. We have a flu vaccine potential (with SEEK (49%);
5. We are doing Challenge Studies regardless of the above…..

Years ago (25+) I held two shares; Pacific Media (PCM) and Tadpole Technolgy (TAD). I used to subscribe to a site called MarketEye. That site was the first of the bulletin board sites I believe. There were two posters (Shed - PCM, and KFM2 - TAD). Anyone that disagreed with these tow tw&ts were immediately pounced on by their followers (or other ill informed tw&ts). Yet many just asked genuine questions. Both shares are gone now. Mostly everyone lost (me included - about £30k overall). Point is, no information should be relied on, on any BB. Everyone is faceless and everyone has an agenda. As soon as some poster starts to insult another poster, there is an agenda!

There is no AIM corruption here, it's a combination of (in order):

1. CF Bullsh*t (damaging) legacy
2. Very low margin business (albeit niche for now)
3. Market (PIs) not understanding the potential?
4. II's not understanding the potential
5. Low market cap precluding certain II's.
6. Very low stock liquidity based on the above...

In relation to point 1., he distanced himself from Fastnet O&G and Amryt Pharma having given both companies his special kind of 'blarney' along the way (I was there!) and investors were left out in the cold (as good as bust in relation to Fastnet).

Forgetting the corruption argument, if it was a great business, someone would buy it at this price. They are not! It's £60M to buy (potentially).... peanuts for a company that has just paid 13M for one study!

Why are there no buyers?

1. Liability (maybe?)
2. Debt (sure there isn't any?!)
3. Scalability?
4. Intellectual property conflict?
5. Association (CF and AIM)?

Not sure....

Comments welcome......

The guy is worth over £100M.

I found it very underwhelming, but don’t ask me why! I just wasn’t very excited by anything that was said. Slow and steady….

There was no new information that I heard, but happy to be enlightened.

Anyway, I am not selling as conversely, there was nothing said that would convince me selling would be a good idea…

It depends whether you think his involvement is a force for good or bad. He promised many things that simply did not materialise:

1. The doubling of share price every 6-months.
2. Dividends
3. Spin-outs
4. Selling the technology to the Chinese for $50M

That was why the price went to 40p+.

The non-delivery of ALL of the above is why we are where we are! IMO, in relation to this company, he should be nowhere near a microphone again!

I think the point is only that there is a number of metrics that people use to gauge value. EBITDA is a relatively old method of providing advice to board members and private shareholders. Often profit share is based on it.

It’s not so widely used by financial analysts (in fact not really at all), but can be a good measure, just depending where you sit, and ultimately what you understand. We all tend to look at and interpret data that we think we understand.

In the same way chartists would not usually use PE ratios.

It’s not a ‘one or other’.

Not sure if it’s been discussed here, but I do recall CF saying he was in discussions with China about how they could run successful trials (based on the OO model).

He mentioned selling them the know-how and IP for £50M.

Does anyone else recall this and if so, do we think it’s still ongoing?

TIA.

As we are in the relatively early growth stages of the business, it would be interesting to know which costs are non-recurring (such as capital expenditure). As a large amount of money was spent during this period setting up trial facilities, I would expect to see margins significantly increase over time.