Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
They helped to create the speculation with the latest Edison research note (which must have received their tacit approval)! This is the final straw. The manager and BoD must go.
Bottom line, selling individual, secured properties at this juncture is unlikely to generate surplus proceeds to repay the unsecured loan note
I think evidence to date would say otherwise; selling vacant or under-utilised properties is hardly "cherry picking". I think that the sales to date have been more driven by trying to sell properties that are not already pledged as security for their loans because it's likely that the lenders, as part of their requisite agreement to the sale of said properties, requiring the majority, if not all, of the proceeds to be applied to paying down their secured loan (that's how securitisation works).
I hope they do but it won't be the be all and end all if they don't as long as the dividned is on track to return in FY24; after the FY22 problems I'm inclined to be conservative (but quite happ to be proven wrong).
From reading and re-reading the circular, it appears that the the tender offer is intended to be more or less cost neutral for DEC. With that in mind, I think the only logic for the tender offer is that US shareholders prefer capital rather than revenue for US tax purposes; the US tax on capital receipts is a lot less than dividends. I would imagine that there are lot of new US shareholders who would be looking at signfiicant tax liabilties if they bought at the recent lows. From DEC's perspective, it they don't offer the capital option there could be a lot of share price turbulence as the ex-dividend date approaches (with US shareholders perhaps looking to sell before and buy back after) and the last thing the DEC share price currently needs is yet more price turbulence.
Just my thoughts.
Gulfharbour, I think you'll find that the £520m sales proceeds are earmarked to enhance the capital strength of the Group and improve its solvency ratio, not pay an FY23 dividend.
Whether they restart dividends is dependent on two conditions being met. First, an improvement in the capital coverage at the upper end of their agreed range (I think they targeted 180%) and secondly, a return to organic capital generation in the motor line. The first condition should have been met as a result of the £520m sale of their commercial lines business but it was still unclear at the H1 results whether the second condition would be met in FY23 (there were still some losses coming through from FY22 and prior years). The general expectation is that the second condition should be met in FY24, if not FY23.
Quite right too Warthog4. How can you possibly refer to packet of cigarettes in such a derogatory manner! Cigarettes have feelings too you know ;-)
FHS? Did you mean FFS?
Personally, I think IFRS is a complete disaster. When your KPI's are always "adjusted" it tells you volumes about what the finance professionals and markets think about IFRS. As Meconpsis has already pointed out, a direct comparison between AV's 2023 results and their restated 2022 results with their 2021 and prior years results is nye of impossible (without those figures being restated too). Having said that, I think there are some positives for insurers (from the investors' perspective); under the previous accounting regime insurers used to fairly dissmissive of using mark-to-market valuations but I think the pendulum has now swung too far in the opposite direction (there is certainly some merit in the insurers' argurment that where they are intending to hold gilts and bonds to marturity, market price fluctuations in between are fairly irrelevant).
It seems wherever you look these days, IFRS is leaving investors and professionals scratching their heads and becoming increasingly reliant on alternative performance measures that often aren't audited! When a figure in the accounts isn't self-evident, and needs detailed explanation, alarms bells should be ringing loud and clear that IFRS is not fit for purpose and that rather than making accounts easier to understand it's often actually making them a lot more difficult to understand.
Most successful CEOs form a cult following (warranted or not), succession doesn't normally factor that much in the market's thinking until the CEO announces their departure.
Sir John Harvey-Jones used to have a cult following at ICI back in the day (and ICI was highly rated as a result); it took the market a long time to realise that it was all just a cyclical commodity illusion and that JHJ hadn't acutally fundamentally changed anything at ICI (not long after he left ICI's profits plunged and it was unceremoniously broken up - the rump of which subsequently became Ineos).
Sorry if I'm being a bit dull but does anybody actually know what interest Ageas (and its associates) now has in DLG? Initially I thought I could follow all of these Form 8.3s and 8.5s but as the days have past it's just become confusing. It doesn't help that some of the disclosers seem to have as much clue how to complete the forms as I have reading them!
E.g. in today's Form 8.3 disclosure from Norge Bank, are they disclosing the number of shares (relevant securities) that they now own hold in Ageas (Box 1c) or DLG (Box 1f). If Norge Bank are disclosing the number of shares they now hold in Ageas, I guess the information might be of use to DLG should Ageas's bid becomes hostile but it just makes matters very confusing.
Also, why is everybody carrying on as if Ageas has submitted a formal offer for DLG? They haven't. They've wrtitten to DLG with an indicative offer (to see if the BoD would be interested in recommending it to shareholders) and it's been rejected. As things currently stand, there is no offer.
It's like a person walking into a grocer's and saying I'll give you a quid for that box of spuds, the grocer saying "not on your nelly", the person then walking back out of the grocer's and then sending in their their kids (their "covert operatives") back into the grocer's to try and buy the spuds one at a time!
In insurance news today I note that Admiral is "calling time" on the recent premium increases which might have taken the edge off broker's future profit forecasts. I would imagine that other general insurers will have to fall into line in due course.
Bingobongo, that might be true in more cases than not but is never true in every case; it all depends on expectations. If the market's expectations of AV (and Blanc in particular) have changed then the share price can move up (or down) into a new trading range to reflect those new expectations. I think the market still doesn't fully appreciate what Blanc has done thus far but yesterday's results were perhaps a wake up call. Not only is AV now forecasting a mid-single digits increase in its future dividend cash pot but it's also forecasting its operating profits from continuing operations to increase from c£1.47bn in FY23 to c£2bn by FY26; a CAGR of ~11%. That's not too shabby for a dull and dowdy UK-listed company. Of course, it's one thing to promise and quite another to deliver but I think Blanc has now proven (to most people) that she can deliver
Just to be clear. You don't pay any dividend tax on dividends received within your personal pension plan (the dividends are exempt, like an ISA)
Income arising within your personal pension plan is exempt from tax. You can take 25% of your pension pot tax-free; this can either be taken as one lump sum or as multiple lump sums up to 25% of your pension pot. Your pension provider will then compute any tax due on your remaining payments (using a tax code provided to them by HMRC which allows for any personal allowance, state pension and/or other regular income) and deduct any tax due from the payment you receive (like PAYE).
"The BoD (and shareholders) in what Ageas has tabled thus far"
Should have read "The BoD (and shareholders) ARE NOT INTERESTED in what Ageas has tabled thus far.
I'm saying Winslow should ignore the potential offer. If a better (winning) offer should materialise so be it (he'll be well compensated in any event). Winslow should not be in the business of dressing up the results or restarting the dividend before time just to try and force Ageas (or A N Other) to submit a better formal offer. The BoD (and shareholders) in what Ageas has tabled thus far. The ball is in Ageas's court. Personally, I'm not sure that Ageas has got the financial means to get a bid over the line (it's got to substantially improve the cash element of any formal bid for starters) but it's come too far not to submit a formal bid (which would have to be north of £2.50 for starters to be even considered credible).
The aim is to increase UK-listed companies in people's share portfolios (and bolster the UK stockmarket in the process).
In principle that should not prevent people from investing in overseas-listed companies; they would just have to invest indirectly through UK listed investment/unit trusts etc.
On the downside, that might mean additional investment charges/stamp duty but on the upside it might make people's overseas portfolios more diversified and less prone to share price shocks e.g. if people are directly invested in (say) the Magnificent 7 rather than (say) the S&P 500 they may be very vulnerable to price shocks.
IMHO the share price rise of the Magnificent 7, like Bitcoin, is being driven by a "wall of cash" rather than fundamentals and any disruption to that "wall of crash" could result in signficant (paper) losses. Fifteen months ago bitcoian was trading at c$16,500. Today it's trading at c$67,800! Unlike a lot of investors I don't pensonally believe in fairytales, Goldilocks or a new paradigm; I believe in bulls and bears (and just when a bull is running rampant a bear is likely to appear uninvited).
I note that yesterday the IMF warned (again) on US banks and another waive of US bank failures could be just the trigger that some unsuspecting investors weren't looking for. Diversification may not insulate you from losses but it may insulate you from complete wipe out.
PS. You will appreciate that I'm not a fan of bitcoin. I appreciate that there is a limited supply (unlike tulips and conch shells) but it isn't tangible (unlike gold) and has no current use in the "real economy" (other than being a conduit for the proceeds of crime). The fact that the SEC has now approved bitcoin beggars belief; it has all the hallmarks of the next derivate, LDI scandal (in the meantime the US investment banks will rack up the profits before running for government cover).
The "phoney" trades (as I like to call them) are in full swing at the moment. As far as I can see on L2 (not that it really helps much these days), the share price drop seems to be primarily driven by autotrades and I suspect that the MMs may be doing a bit of treeshake as is their wont. There may be "genuine", large delayed trades behind the scenes driving the current share price drop but we will only really know for certain later in the day as the MMs release the data.
It all really depends on your personal outlook. One should never overlook a bird in the hand for two in the bush. You've doubled your money and the US markets opening are unlikely to materially increase AV's share price further today IMHO. If I was to hazard, the share price might re-test 480p again later today but nothing is ever guaranteed.
Don't forget that the CGT allowance for 23/24 is £6,000 and due to reduce to £3,000 for 24/25. So, selling at least some of your shares before 6 April to utilise your 23/24 CGT allowance and transferring the proceeds into an ISA would appear to make sense (if you've not already used your 23/24 ISA allowance).
Unless you already have the cash sitting around, don't forget that it could take 7-14 working days to sell, realise the cash proceeds and then re-invest back into an ISA. Most brokers work on at least a T+3 days settlement period - which in practise generally means that although they might allow you to re-invest the sale proceeds immediately within your trading account they'll require you to wait at least 3 working days before withdrawing the cash and/or transferring the proceeds from your trading account to an ISA, if they provide that facilit). Furthemore, if you have to withdraw the cash before investing it into a new ISA then you've not only got to wait for the funds to clear in your trading account but also wait for the funds to clear in your bank account (most brokers will take 2-3 working days to transfer funds once they've received your instruction). You will also need to factor in the time it will then take for funds to clear in your new ISA account (if you pay by debit card that should be same day but bank transfers will take longer).
Also, don't forget that bed and ISA'ing is likely to depress shares prices the later in March you leave it and likewise raise share prices after 5 April as most people are looking to sell before 6 April, utilise their 23/24 CGT allowance and re-invest post 5 April utilising their 24/25 ISA allowance.
Hope that helps.
I'm not expecting bad news per se. I'm expecting a steady improving progression on costs, underwriting and margins. If we don't meet all of the criteria to restart the dividend for FY23 that won't necessarily be bad news (it was never a slam dunk) as long as we can see the dividend restarting at the FY24 interims (that should be feasible). Winslow needs to show that he is capable of making sound business decisions, regardless of the Ageas "noise". Part of the reason that DLG got itself into this mess in FY22 was it's unwillingness to make sound business decisions (rather than addressing the issues and reducing the dividend, it proceeded to take unwarranted risks). Winslow needs to stamp his authority now, even if he's not seen as "playing to the galleries" (Blanc has ignored the hysteria and stuck to her guns, amd that's now starting to pay dividends for AV). With, or without Ageas, DLG's share price should be able to recover to (say) 250pps in the next 12-24 months once a sustainable dividend has been re-instated. That should be Winslow's sole focus regardless of whether or not Ageas comes back with an improved offer; if he sticks to the nitty-gritty the benefits (and potentially an improved offer if it comes to that) will come. Achieving 250pps should be just the first hurdle. Winslow then needs to focus on how best DLG can replace those profits from its commercial lines business but it has to be one step at the time.