RE: Breakout?26 Dec 2025 23:10
Lionheart, Adjusted EPS and DPS are exactly what they say they are. The number of shares in issue at any given time are irrelevant. If you are earning less than 3p per share in issue and paying 3.25p per share in issue, the dividend isn't covered. Also, the cash pile is currently contributing to part of that EPS (investment income) and, as it dwindles, new investments not only need to make up for that lost EPS but still also need to broach that existing EPS shortfall.
The cash pile has been dwindling at a rate of £13-£14m per annum over the last 3 years. Stopping share buy backs may help preserve the cash pile but, assuming that the buy backs have been helping to support the already lowly share price (that, in theory, is what they are supposed to do) then there may be opportunities for Chelsea (and you) to average down even further sub-40p.
Also, as I've said previously, they still have plans to make further acquisitions and a couple more IVS/Sempre sized additions (which may or may not be earnings enhancing from outset) will not only make a dent in that cash pile but will also increase their working capital requirements (funds for capital expenditure, inventory debtors/creditors etc.), which will mean that even more cash will likely need to be retained in the business to meet normal day to day costs and reduce still further the surplus cash available to distribute. I, unlike you, am not working under the illusion that all of the current cash pile is surplus to requirements within the business (I'd imagine that they'd want to keep a minimum of £10m for prudence).
The underlying problem you have is that adjusted earnings (not per share you'll note) have actually been falling faster than they've been buying back shares, so until H2 2025, adjusted EPS had been falling at an alarming rate despite the buy backs.
However, it's not all doom and gloom. The closure of the loss making NZ business looks to have helped in H2 2025 (it remains to be seen whether the potentially lost MC sales in NZ can be made up elsewhere) and, if they don't mess around with the KPIs again (they've been changing and/or restating prior year KPIs repeatedly for the last few years), we should hopefully have a much better understanding of how the business is performing in H1 2026. E.g. whether the increased order book at the end of 2025 feeds through into better comparative MC sales (H1 2025 was a disaster). Also, we should have the first meaningful comparatives for the SM business (I'd like to see at least a 10% LfL increase).
The only cloud on the horizon, from my perspective, is the change of accounting date. Based on Imogen's past record, that'll give her plenty of new opportunities to massage the figures if there hasn't been a meaningful improvement in the operating businesses. She's got to try and justify those new LTIPs somehow ;-)