Member Info for TheTrotsky

The last quarterly NAV update said that the adjusted NAV was 82.9p, which would imply c75p after allowing for a 10% discount.

We finished up! It would seem that the seller has either sold their quota (I still have some lingering doubts) or at last seen sense and realised that they can't repeatedly come back to the well and expect to be welcomed with open arms.

This isn't, as I understand, the MM's doing. They're just as tired as the rest of us of being mugged after closing (and managing the after effects the following day) and are disinclined to make this any more profitable for the seller than it needs being. One has to hope that the seller has a floor price.

Anybody else get the feeling that we're just being set up for yet another post close share dump? I hope I'm wrong but I just get that feeling.

Whoever the seller is (it could be Dowgate but that's not been confirmed) you'd think that this was a far from ideal situation from their perspective too. I'd normally expect a large seller to come to an arrangement with an MM or another investor (likewise a large buyer) but this seller is willing to destabilise the share price to offload their shares and is prospectively facing diminishing returns to boot (perhaps I'm reading too much into the last two days but I get the feeling that the market is unwilling to absorb more shares at their desired price and that they are settling for whatever they can get volume wise).

It's absolutely killing any hype in the run up to the SpaceX IPO.

They're at it again.

"... broader market headwinds ..."

Given that the Great Orange One (GOO) seems to create new market headwinds every time he opens his mouth these days, so much so that "abnormal" has become the new "norm", one has to wonder what particular market headwinds AI is specifically referring to.

PS. Anyone else see the UFC stage being built in front of the White House to celebrate the USA's 250th birthday? The Secret Service must be doing its nut at the thought of 5,000 UFC guests entering the White House grounds! This is a yet another new low for GOO; UFC becoming the epitome of US culture over the last 250 years. I don't know why he doesn't just turn the White House and it's grounds into the Trump Theme Park whilst he's at it! He's definitely missed an opportunity to rename it the Trump House but there's still time! Crass!

It looks as if we're the ones who've been hoodwinked. The price over on the OTC market has plummeted to $5.35 as I speak. Not a good sign unfortunately. See how it pans out from here. For every seller there must be a buyer; so I'm not sure if 389p draws a line.

I'm not sure that SpaceX have yet met all of the criteria for the warrants to be issued yet. There were certain volume conditions that needed to be met over a period of several years if I recollect.

I think you should re-check your facts. They had a very large one-off order from SpaceX in FY24 to retro-fit their existing ground stations which rather skewed their comparative figures. Excluding the one-off order, orders were up in FY25 and are expected to continue to grow from here on out. In August last year they announced the largest order in their history (from SpaecX), double the size of their previous largest order (from SpaecX). They've also announced several other large orders, both in the space sector and defence over the last 12 months.

It was reported as a trade at 13:26. Delayed trades are normally reported with the time that they are executed, not when they are reported.

I saw those too. I can understand typos when the price is rising/falling fast but it was pretty quiet at 13:26.

Why on earth is anybody being asked to pay 405pps for 15k of shares at 13:26 when the MMs are offering 35k of shares at 390p, 20k at 395p and 10k at 400p?!

One snippet from the SpaceX IPO prospectus (mentioned in yesterday's press) that I found interesting is that SpaceX considers the current addressable space market to be c$28.5 trillion. It might be nice to think that SpaceX intends to corner the whole of this market itself but the reality is that SpaceX is only likely to be one of the largest, if not the largest, players in the space market and is unlikely to benefit in the long run from stifling competition by denying them access to key technology, such as FTC's communication technology. Having first starter advantage is great but to maximise the opportunity Musk will want to see rapid adoption (much like Tesla and EVs).

I think he was voicing genuine concerns about the share price getting out of kilter with the current metrics/valuation; concerns that have been discussed on this chat several times in the last few weeks/months. He wasnt slagging off FTC or totally discounting the possibility of FTC becoming worth a £1 billion+ in time if it continues to get all of its ducks in a row, opens new sales channels in the satellite market and widens its customer base. FTC is doing all the right things at the moment but that's no absolute guarantee of future success.

He listed three factors that they took into account when evaluating their investment in FTC - its near term financial metrics, valuation and market sentiment. I think we can all agree that the current metrics don't support the current valuation and have previously said as much. The big unknown at the moment is market sentiment and the impact of FOMO and he voiced no opinion one way or the other. He might think it daft but knows that sometimes you can't swim against the tide of expectation.

There was one point that probably should have been made clearer - FTC is not perennially limited to just £200m of annual sales. It may currently only have £200m of capacity but it can always invest to expand its capacity further if new demand calls for it. Bottom line you don't invest in extra redundant capacity unless you can foresee using it in the short/medium term and FTC has already shown that it can fairly rapidly expand its manufacturing capacity within 12-18 months if required; its only real limitation is being able to recruit the skilled workforce it requires as and when needed.

Stavely did however slag off some of the US pundits he'd heard and rightly so. We saw the same earlier this week regarding the forthcoming SpaceX IPO (not too late to still turn $500 into $500,000 overnight!). They are the true snake oil salesmen and it never ceases to amaze me how many investors (particularly Yanks) seem to fall for it time and again.

One positive take from the last two days; at least I haven't needed to take my Lactulose 😀

The MMs are concealing their hands. The story of the morning thus far has been BUY or SELL the price drops!

I can only conclude that there's lots of unreported selling and/or the MMs are short of stock.

On days like these I wonder why I bother to pay for L2!

Unfortunately the rises are rarely, if ever, as rapid or meteoric as the falls.

Definitely heart in mouth time there for about 10-20 minutes (gut wrenching in fact).

In reality periodic clear outs aren't a bad thing unless you bought at the peak this moning.

The MMs have tripped stop losses. The share price does seem to be stabilising now as I speak at around £4. This isn't the first time that we've seen large daily 10-15% falls on FTC (MMs like to make periodic tree shakes). The problem is that as the share price goes higher the absolute falls get larger and, when the price drops rapidly, it's definitely unnerving.

Starship is primarily SpaceX's launcher for its intended Mars missions and continues to be a work in progress. It can also be used to launch satellites but it's not the near term focus for SpaceX's existing satellite launch programme. Down the road Starship's heavy lift capabilities could play a pivotal roll in launching the million (?) LEO satellites that SpaceX is proposing to launch but we're not at that critical juncture. So, I don't think that a launch failure tomorrow would have much short-term impact; if it did, I suspect that SpaceX might have delayed the launch until after the IPO i.e. any risk has already been factored in.