Member Info for TheTrotsky

Anybody else on here pay LSE for premiun services? For the last 2 hours I have't been able to get any Level 2 data. They'll no doubt blame a third party provider as usual but the reality is that their service is far from "premium"; they can't even supply RNS information some days! There's never ever any apology or offer of recompense. Not a happy bunny!

When there's a feeding frenzy PIs (unlike institutional investors) tend to overlook market value and just look at the share price.

You only need to look at what happened to the share price of the Smarter Web Company last year before it listed on the LSE. There are still some PIs over on the SWC share chat who are convinced that its share price will return to £5+ per share in the near term; just a matter of time! They're even convinced that PIs will be willing to pay a large multiple of the BTC price just to hold SWC! A total disconnect with reality.

Personally, I pencilled in FTC reaching £10-£20 over the next 10 years if the satellite and defence markets continue to expand at the current expected rate but there's a lot of hurdles for FTC to clear between now and then (a more diverse customer base being one of them). But the forthcoming SpaceX IPO has added a lot of positive speculation around FTC and if you're looking at for over hype you only need to look at SpaceX's mooted IPO valuation.

I was reading in the Times over the weekend that SpaceX supposedly lost multi-$billions in its latest, unpublished accounts (due to X and significant capex on expanding its space ventures) and it's quite possible that it will remain loss making for the foreseeable future (Starlink might be its jewel in the crown but X is certainly its dirty, little secret - it continues to lose $billions each year). I also read that SpaceX has reportedly entered into a deal giving it first option to buy a Californian AI startup for $60billion before the end of this year! These are crazy valuations but I suspect that won't put off PIs who think that Musk has the Midas touch and can do no wrong (I prefer to think of him as a snake oil salesman). There's even talk of merging Tesla! You've got to give it to Musk; he can sell mutton made up as lamb 😀

It would probably be even nuttier if Dixon and the Newlands weren't constistent sellers. Without them selling (and at some point you'd imagine that they will hold for the remainder of the ride) the free float would be getting a lot tighter.

Yesterday probably also benefited from auto-dividend reinvestment; PIs might benefit from lower dealing charges but they invariably end up paying a higher purchase price. You're often better off waiting a few extra days and manually reinvesting your dividends (if that's what you want to do).

Having said that "... say £40,000 to £50,000 ..." isn't anything like doubling your investment ;-)

If you originally bought LGEN at £2 per share then the current yield on your original investment would be c11% and, if you doubled your original investment on sale, it would equate to c9 years of annual dividends, ignoring future potential dividend growth and IT. Whereas, if you originally bought LGEN at £4 per share then the current yield on your original investment would be c5.5% and, if you doubled your original investment on sale, it would equate to c18 years of annual dividends, ignoring future potential dividend growth and IT.

NervousNelly, Most people, unlike yourself it would appear, will be holding their shares in ISAs or SIPPs, so CGT and IT are irrelevant.

I think that you'll find that it has more to do with other factors that aren't necesarily specific to either TPT or the state of the economy e.g. the current welfare system that doesn't make it worthwhile for some people to work more than 10 hours a week and/or working mothers who need to top and tail their working day because they can't afford childcare. TPT is just mixing and matching i.e. where they might like/want one person to work a 40 hour week they split the job into two part-time jobs of 10 hours and 30 hours respectively.

The latest quarterly update was released earlier this week and didn't seem particularly earth shattering but the share price has responded very positively. Anybody know any reason why?

PS. If you want to see some real ramping I suggest you start reading the Smarter Web chat. At one point it was valued at £5 per share after it announced that it was going to become a BTC treasury company (prior to its listing on the LSE) and some people still cling to the idea that its share price will rebound if the BTC price rises above $100,000 again on the assumption that investors are going to pay a large premium to the foregoing BTC price just to hold shares in SWC rather than buy actual BTC (it is worth a premium but nothing like the premium some people would like to think).

If you think this is ramping you must still be wet behind the ears. Believe me this discussion thread is tame. Wait till you start hearing the term FYB being regularly promoted by multiple posters on a daily basis, then you'll know what ramping really is.

Posters, myself included, may have expressed views, uncorrelated to FTC's current financial metrics, as to where the share price might be going in the coming months but nobody is telling anybody to buy now or miss the boat. My own personal views are based on a gut feeling having been through the dot.com boom/bust cycle. FTC's current share price is already way ahead of the curve but when a market sector starts to become in vogue investors start to act irrationally and I'm personally banking on that irrationality to push FTC's share price higher. I don't know where the top will be in the current cycle but I don't think we're there yet IMHO.

I think that the SpaceX IPO will push this higher. Personally I think the current value supposedly being placed on SpaceX is totally ridiculous but wouldn't be at all surprised to see its share price rise at IPO and in the days/weeks thereafter because of the limited free float and the Musk effect (whether warranted or not). You only have to look at the current Tesla price to realise how stupid the average investor is (the majority of its current valuation is based on the future promise of robo-taxis and androids, both of which looking further away by the day - I certainly wouldn't travel in a Tesla robo-taxi and not would be happy to see them licenced to operate in the UK because their technology is lame and it's highly debatable that they can ever be made safe without using LIDAR).

Sheltie, I've been watching SSIT (and Ensilica) from afar for a while now but have had no spare capital to invest. However, one thing that did leave me slightly quizical about SSIT's recent cash raise was how the C shares would eventually convert i.e. they didn't want to dilute the existing ordinary shareholders so issued the C shares at £1 each with the option (?) to convert at a later date but surely the existing ordinary shareholders will be diluted at the later date unless the C shareholders are obliged to stump up the difference at some point.

Sheltie et al, Calm down. I think everybody has managed to get the wrong end of the stick this morning. I saw nothing in either yours or Villedeas's original posts to warrant 2Buy's response but we're all guilty of misinterpreting posts on occasion. Let it lie and let's all move on.

2buyor2sell, I'd agree that FTC has no need to do a cash raise based on our current understanding unless, unbeknownst to us, it has set its sights on a (say) potential £15m+acquisition. However, I'd point out that the warrants were issued at a much lower exercise price (based on the share price at the time) and would not generate the kind of cash you might think if and when exercised.

I suggest people have a look at the last interim balance sheet. FTC has cash in the bank, no bank debt and has already completed its capital expenditure programme to expand production. Companies don't just raise cash without a purpose and profitable companies don't raise surplus cash to sit on their balance sheet just for the sake of it (it's highly inefficient and will dilute future returns).

If FTC needs to raise cash it will be for a specific purpose e.g. a complimentary acquisition. Likewise, SSIT specifically raised cash to expand its investment portfolio. If its shares were trading at a premium to NAV, SSIT might have done so progressively by periodically issuing new shares to institutional investors, like other ITs do, but it saw the investment opportunity here and now and decided to do a full cash raise all in one go.

Unfortunately you can't (hence my many unintentional typos). It just made me laugh because it had me scrambling to look at the closing trades in disbelief and wonder (and doubt I was alone). 😀

Agray, You're getting ahead of yourself aren't you? You surely meant 400s not 500s? 😀

Warthog, on one level I'd agree with you ("never seen a buyback that's worked") but on another level I would disagree. Firstly, if AV wasn't buying back these shares who would be? We can never know for certain but having a willing buyer in the market usually aids a share price and I don't see that buybacks are any different i.e. the share price performance could always be worse. Secondly, because AV sets a total dividend payout each year (rather than simply a dividend per share like most other companies) the buybacks actually benefit the remaining shareholders (there's more of the dividend pot left for the rest of us) and as result AV is able to pay out a marginally higher dividend per share than it would otherwise. Thirdly, people often forget that share buybacks have been the "currency" of choice in the US for decades (primarily for tax reasons) and, as result, US companies tend to have much smaller free floats than UK companies. As a consequence, US companies are better able to benefit from the leveraging effect of smaller free floats and their share prices tend to benefit more from share buybacks. In the UK, on the other hand, dedicated share buyback programmes have been far less common until recent years and it's probably going to take several years/decades to work through the share overhang until such time it starts to materially affect AV's free float.

Villedeas, I'd love to lay claim to the Newton quote but I will have to concede to Shutts for that one. Praise where praise is due. It is nevertheless a timely reminder that people are currently enamoured with all things space at the moment. I, like Shutts, am riding the waive but am constantly on the look out for the "&bell hop" (that's a reference to the 1928 Wall Street Crash). As 8 say, I think this one still has legs and that there's more to come later this year. In the meantime, FTC remains a volatile share and big rises and falls are to be expected.

Mentioning the South Seas Bubble is hardly reassuring 😀, but I'm with you in thinking that there's more to come.

The space sector started to trend in H2/Q4 last year and it still hasn't entered into investor's psyche IMHO (much like the dot.com boom took c12 months to each fever pitch). If SpaceX is indeed valued at $1.75 trillion in its forthcoming IPO, as is currently being mooted in the press, then I think the whole space sector will become the front and centre of investors' attention in Q3 this year, whether the attention is warranted or not. Plus, although I'm still of the view that SpaceX would want FTC to remain independent and won't be launching a bid, the rumour mill will no doubt say otherwise.

Yesterday's close was a bit more unusual than normal. During the closing auction there were three lots, totalling c2.4m shares, being offered for sale, so I was a bit surprised when the UT was above the closing spread.