Member Info for TheItalian

sweet indeed!

the Italian @ 42p in March 2019 hope i am being shy

a 25% increase in tonnage and a 16% increase in grade give a 44.2 increase in overall resource.
I was just referencing the previous peak, which leads to this number.
And it's not distant from 50%.
Hope this clarifies.

Another angle, playing with numbers.
The previous peak at 46.8 corresponds to the valuation at 0.05/lbs for about 10.6 Mln tonnes, which in my opinion is a realistic level for the next MRE (i.e. a 25% increase in overall resource and a higher average grade about 16% higher than the first MRE). Perhaps the company and the informed insiders has a good sense that they were eventually going to prove those levels.
Anyhow, if we use that updated resource, the 46.8 at the exploration level would correspond to 75p at the feasibility stage (i.e. 0.08/lbs), 234p at the development stage (i.e. 0.25/lbs), and 290p at the production stage (i.e. 0.31/lbs), all excluding dilution of course.

I have:
1.08 Bln tonnes at 0.68% CuEq, at $6135 / tonne = 48.9 Bln $
Exchange rate = 1.28, 85% owned, 1.7 bln shares, for each 1% of value in ground I get 19.2p.
That makes SOLG valued at 1.25%, which is below the 0.05/lbs average valuation for exploration companies; it would have to be 1.68% to match.
Anyway, clearly undervalue, but probably in view of NM being a resistant one to hostile takeovers, which make a corporate event at a higher price a more distant event.

I am not bothered. Filter button easy to use. My trading strategy is my own. Good posters are read and factored in. Everyone elae is just noise. Good day everyone. Greetings from Greece.

FTJNY, I think you need to factor in the eventual dilution. Even if, as it sounds, SOLG obtains a conditional funding to get to development or production, at some point the funding is translated, in part or in total, into equity.
If and when the funding is agreed, we should be able to extrapolate both the possible amount of dilution and the conversion exercise price.
Having said that, I would love £2.50 as that would be a monumental return for my holding.

Sometimes even I get annoyed by delays. Not sure how this can be still in pending stage just because of TSXV.

My assumption would be that instead of either or, SOLG will go for both the conditional funding in combination and a sale, so that it ends up as a significant minority holder in a vertically integrated exploration-to-production company.
Seems to fit with their previous statements and common sense.

I am trying to model the SOLG valuation should it move to production.
Does anyone have an educated guess about:
1) how many years of production should be taken into account, are 30 reasonable?
2) what would be a realistic annual cost to run the operation?

Thank you e molte grazie.

Ah Ahhh Pad, thank you!

Best NM interview I have seen, very upbeat! Can we get the price to £1 now please?
Where is the 600g/T coming from?

Agreed. GGP are on a rather aggressive exploration campaign, they have got some initial good results, it's a perfect time to raise capital. I don't see the recent deluge of RNSs and tweets as unusual ramps, considering that the issuance would have taken place at a discount anyway.
No doubts this is a share for experienced punters, that can destroy less experienced people's portfolios, but on the positive side the high risk is matched with the likelyhood of a high reward.
As usual, since my money and my mouth are in sync, I have topped up.
GLA

Hopefully still on track for July, but I haven't seen any more news about it.

Filthy, Let me guess, you are projecting a long 3rd wave parallel to W1?

Sav, that's debt issued in place of new equity, where the debtor (SOLG) receives money a and pay interest in it, all subject to milestones and timelines. If sufficient conditions are met, the financing party can convert that debt into equity.
That's my understanding anyway.
have a look here for a recent example, I think this must be roughly what NM is talking about:
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/champion-secures-financing-ten-year-offtake-from-glencore-2017-08-29

...and if I am right, the debenture would have to include a conversion clause with the conversion price, which would indicate where the price would end up once all conditions are met and the financing party can convert into equity.

I might be wrong, but I suppose that a "conditional total funding package" to move forward after the PEA would come from a major, sort of a convertible bond that the major can eventually convert into equity if the economic conditions are favourable, and the benefit of which would be that in the short term there would be no dilution.
Anyone got any more educated views on this?

Thank you Rich, I am salivating!

NM talked about 0.06/lb a couple of months back, so he must have a more optimistic take on valuations.
At 0.06/lb, the value based on the initial MRE alone, without considering any other asset, would be 38.2p, so an updated MRE could theoretically push us to about 60p or higher.
Either way, whatever the exact numbers, it seems fairly obvious that we are going to be re-rated, imho at least to 3-4 times the current price.
The market knowing that NM will not play ball unless offers are very appealing will make the price non reactive until that beautiful day, but that day will be really beautiful.
GLA.