Member Info for TheItalian

What do we think (from the presentation), updated MRE 1.5 times the previous one at 0.3 %, and high grade about 2.5 times?

SOLG as an exploration company is about advanced modelling and better targeted drilling. Once the first target is acknowledged by investors via an offer, the credibiliyy of the modelling is improved and having multiple targets in play makes the entire play more scalable and quicker. I like it. It's noy about how we get to 50p or 100p in 1-2 years, more about where we are in 5. Great strategy.

How bad investors blame the companies they invest in after they buy into them at the wrong time.

Sean, the current valid trendline on the uptrend (as I see it) links the lows from 22/2 and 3/4, so you and the rest of us have to hope that in the short term we don't fall below 20.50-21.00. If that breaks, at least that I can see the next valid uptrend line is at a much lower level so not nice. Unfortunately the long downtrend is also still in play and it crosses the uptrend in September around 21.10. Incidentally, that time is critical for other technical reasons and whataver happens between now and then, in September I expect a relative low, perhaps after another little upward move that will not last long, and before a proper rally after September. But that is me, of course, time will tell. DYOR and GLA.

We are debating a high Beta stock at a highly speculative stage of its corporate development, high volatility has to be expected. we have all at some point gone from profit to loss and back, or viceversa. I have been 70k down at some point, I have endured the pain but I persevered. For those who trade SOLG, there is technical analysis to help navigate the ups and downs, for those who bought into the fundamentals, it's the just the wait. I don't think it's time for panic. GLA.

@Seanhunter, if you have such a bleak outlook on SOLG, what would be a good share to invest in then? Genuine question, I am always on the hunt for good ideas.

Sure, we would all rather like to see SOLG trading at a higher price, however that's as good as wishing to win the lottery as it would be down to pure chance. Even leaving SOLG's fundamentals aside, as they have been kindly highlighted by the other "good" posters here, it's actually a good time for investing in SOLG. The price shows a relatively predicatable pattern, the relative shorter cycle lows after the big minimum of February are presenting themselves where expected (if you have gone through the pain of modelling it). As we are already 3 months into the next long cycle and short cycle amplitude is showing the right behaviour, I think the price is currently spring-loading and by the second half of September we could see fireworks. Just to be clear, since I have filtered half the board, the usual suspects don't need to waste their time responding with their drivel. If you have no idea about what I am talking about, just disregard. GLA!

Q2/Q3 2020, not 2002......

As usual comments can be interpreted in different ways. NM spoke of repeating the 15-fold growth at a time when the share price was around 40p; whether that means that the price could, in his view, get to 600p, or whether that means that the company can repeat the Alpala grown another 15 times, the consequence is the same, the price has a potential to reach very high highs. Having said that, and I made this comment before, IMHO at this stage we are in no position to see beyond the possible highs of the next W3, say anywhere between 75p and 140p. The next big cycle, possibly starting in Feb 2018 according to my voodoo, could complete in Q2/Q3 2002, by which point methink we could have witnessed both the big rise and a W4 retracement, hence my expectation of very exciting times between July/August this year and the summer 2019. At least, this is my current reading, of course do your own research.

@Kivikev, the response has to be subjective. each of us has a different combination of theoretical knowledge, first hand experience, overall approach, aspiration/expectation, and risk appetite. There are always many ways to make money or lose it from investing or speculating on the same share or any other tradable asset. I always find it amusing how some have such a reductive idea of how to invest and discount one method against another, when in fact any method adds something the a proper analysis that leads to a trading decision. Now, obviously the most intuitive way to trade is to study the company fundamentals and try and make sense of price movements and then make a call about whether the current price presents an opportunity because it's judged either too low (then you buy) or too high (then you sell). Or one can trade "special situations" or transient events. However, professional traders are not going to operate as simplistically as that. Whether one has the curiosity and/or the intellectual latitude to appreciate the following, prices present themselves over time in waves, and more specifically overlapping waves of different duration (on the X axis) and amplitude (on the Y axis). Then, this measurable phenomenon makes it more tangible to develop technical analysis methods often ridiculed here, that by themselves and even more when used in tandem with time series analysis, allow the educated investor to reduce the intrinsic opacity of price dynamics and therefore make better trading decisions. One has to remember than on average, about 3/4 of price movements are a consequence of foreseeable market events, so there is a strong correlation between reality and good modelling. On top, one has to appreciate that time is relevant in terms of ROI. If it takes you 5 years to make 50% on an investment based on being patient, you have to consider the possibility you could have used the capital to transact more frequently to generate higher returns. And so it all goes back full circle to knowledge, experience, approach, expectation and risk appetite. IMHO that is. GLA with your research.

Sorry, 28 months, not weeks....

Pad you are a star!

to the full report from Redcloud, published today?

If the updated MRE comes at around 12 Mln tonnes CuEq, the price could be around 43p, so it's not outlandish. Realistically until the resource is priced for sale or production, we won't get the proper re-rate we are all dreaming about..

Welcome TheRouge, and good luck with your investment!

@Quady, what were you broking? I agree with you by the way. There is unnecessary impatience around IMHO.

I like the 6 cents per lbs since NM used it himself. Assuming the 15 bln at 0.9 that was mentioned, we would be valued at almost 70p. Something slightly lower that still extends the high grade area and the overall resource could easily push the price above the previous peak. I suppose that in the large scheme of things we need Solg ready to sell something, and some clarity about whether Alpala has to stand on its own merits or whether there is a dependency on Aggy as both additional resource and point of entry for the Alpala deep block caving operations. It's a great story, but from a potential buyer's point of view imho there are still critical unknowns before a serious offer can be tabled.

Thank you Pad

Does anyone remember where is the recent reference to 1.5 Bln tonnes at 0.9% from?

While this might be technical woodoo and Solg's price is predominantly driven by fundamentals, over the last 8 years the price has moved with a relatively predictable cyclicality. One can easily spot the main 6m cycles from trough to trough, and a bit less obviously the shorter harmonics at 3m and 4m. Going shorter we get more variability but there is a tangible range at 45/55d. With that in mind, should no "fundamental" news pop up, a new trough after the last one on the 4th April could keep us in bearish mode for the entire month of June or even into July, until a new cycle eventually starts. We will soon test the theory anyway. GLA.