RE: 27p17 May 2018 14:42
My 2 pence on valuation....
The 7.40 mln tonnes of CuEq as per initial MRE, ultimately pushed the valuation to 20p, or about 1% of resource or also 0.03 USD per lbs of copper.
Leaving temporarily aside the fact that there is gold and there are other tenements, and just focussing on price action vs. official resource information, we are already seeing that there is an expectation built into the current price (around 27p) as the new MRE approaches and other tenements are being drilled.
So if now we project a new MRE, say a not particularly aggressive 50% increase of overall grade, associated to a similar increase of high grade core, which brings the overall Alpala grade into more "economical" range and therefore more unequivocally appealing as investment for both majors and institutionals, we should at the very least see a re-rate to about 37p, which is 1.33% of resource and also 0.04 per lbs copper (which itself if SOLG's peer average valuation).
Again, i think "at the very least".
Achieving a resource description which can be universally be interpreted as "economical" officially opens up the doors to a T/O scenario, where the multiple then moves to 2-3% of resource if now higher.
And this is just Alpala, before we look at Aguinaga, Trivino, or any other SOLG's assets.
So, where does that leave us?
Unless this is all a big misunderstanding, and despite NM himself stating two days ago that the new MRE will be "significantly bigger", this is just a matter of waiting for the SOLG team to continue their great work and get us to that beautiful new number that finally tips the scale.
I think this is not a sell until we reach 15mln tonnes and a 2% multiple, which puts us at around 75p.
in the world of possible outcomes, I see this as an achievable level some time in 2019.
whatever happens after that, who can tell, I am trying to not be drawn into the "sky is the limit" daydreaming, however this really looks like the real deal, SOLG being the largest exploration play and first mover in Ecuador, too much interest on this region to not eventually monetize on it.
DYOR and GLA.