Member Info for TheItalian

@Beetham, it's always interesting to see large investors sharing views with the minions in a BB, even when the agenda is mostly self-serving and the communication is mostly a press release dressed down as a post.
If you don't mind sharing your views in less cryptic fashion, where are you expecting to see GGP's markcap once these promising prospects deliver? Despite your earlier comment about you still being here when the rest of us has gone, some of us might be equally enlightened, even when less endowed, and willing to stay around to enjoy the big payout.

https://youtu.be/eHAfnxWGzdA

Another tweet from SOLG about National Bank Canada revised estimates.

Revised target $0.95 from $0.60 = 0.80 of NAV
Expected equity raise in Q4/2018
Initial Capex for the block cave mine $2.5 Bln

Now other than the equity raise in Q4, which is critical, I find interesting that NM had mentioned 4 Bln as NAV, just in September.
Before dilution that translates into a very high share price, and even if shares were doubled, it would still be a very high number, much higher than the $0.95 target from National Bank.

Fundsmith, imho.

And I should have really added:

- Ecuadorian government get the majors engaged and the future tax revenue stream secured

WIN WIN:
- BHP will increase their shareholding and will get the copper
- Newcrest will be the block caving operator and will get the gold
- SOLG will get to play with the big boys
- WE will enjoy a multi-bagger

The morale of the story is that you have to be in it to win it.
GLA!

I have seen that boat in the flesh this summer. Very understated (not)!

About the $4bln NPV that NM mentioned, I modelled a 30 years project, with:
a doubling of MRE to 14.57 Mln Tonnes CuEq
92.70% recovery rate
12% discount rate
Production cost of £1.11 Bln, using $100/Ton
An eventual 1:3 equity dilution
51% taxes

These are all assumptions, but at least I can use a measurable method.

The result is an NPV of £2.11 Bln, which would be $2.78 Bln, a share price of £1.24 and markcap of about £6.3 Bln.

I think the difference with the $4 Bln are partly in the numerical assumption, but also in the typically optimistic estimation before the real costs of production / financing / dilution are fully determined.

But even then, the analysis gives a very good results for us investors.

Have a lovely weekend all.

in the unravelling SOLG drama.

http://prospect.org/article/how-blackrock-rules-world

@schlemiel, you really need to go back to school. Debt does not dilute equity, they are two distinct elements of a company's capital structure. "Dilution", as in equity dilution of the equity capital into a larger number of shares, will happen only when A) SOLG issues new shares and B) the eventual conditional funding agreement turns the loan into shares as it happens for convertible bonds.
What NM is trying to explain is a modelled path to production via an initial conditional funding (=debt) to bootstrap production, producing the remaining part of the cash flow needed to keep going and reduce the risk of actually having to really dilute. This might happen and realistically will happen to some extent, but at this stage the company is only talking about raising debt, not equity, so no dilution.

regarding BHP, I think he clarified that they bought the 6.1 without even doing the due diligence, hence the not calling us is seen as a sign of confidence that the resource speaks for itself at this point.

on Devergoldforum website

wrong BB, apologies

from NM.
On the Denvergoldforum website, webcast menu.

next wave up, 41-42p, methink.

...interview....

This is the John Meyer inetrview, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXJdopjDucI

Nice, talks in such chilled way about a takeover being a 3-4 Bln operation.
Definitely getting a more tangible sense of the £1+ coming to our screens.

And I need to correct myself, I meant W4, not W5 of the minor.

Since we are talking about money, I am very serious.
Does not mean I am right, but serious I am serious.

BNC will probably tell me off for this, but I would venture into guessing that we are in the minor W5 phase of a W1 intermediate phase, if we assume that the primary W3 has started already.