Member Info for terrace

Nige...I am lost with the talk of yield here with the SP falling more than the dividend paid out.If you lend me £100 and I pay you £15 annual interest but your loan has fallen in value to £85,you have no yield do you?.

https://www.telfordhomes-ir.london/

9th Abbey

11th Barratt

12th Telford AGM

Sain….all recent homebuilder announcements have signalled that the conditions enjoyed in the last 5 years are not going to continue.You are old enough and wise enough to know and understand what we are facing and indeed you foresaw this years decline in SPs.The announcements today will strengthen shorters resolve to keep kicking the homebuilders whilst they are down.If you were working in financial services with your employers threatening to up sticks and move to Frankfurt,would you be looking for a new London home right now?.

Homebuilder announcements recently have signalled that it is not going to be easy to increase EPS in the next few years so why is everyone surprised at the market reaction to their shares.Posters refer to high yields but with the rate of SP decline,there is no yield at the moment is there?.We are guided that the home sale market is difficult and is entering a cyclical phase of stagnation/decline albeit that demand is there,buyers are reluctant to commit with all the negativity around in the media.With that backgound,SPs may well revisit 52 week lows or even lower.Those who have seen all this several times before will not be too worried though about long term prospects ( 5 to 10 years)

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PSN&ArticleCode=sl153q6p&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Update

www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BVS&ArticleCode=3kerqau9&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Update

be very interesting to see what Persimmon and Bovis have to say for themselves in the morning..

all homebuilder SPs have fallen more than their dividends,so,at the moment,there is no yield,is there?.

If the imminent announcements from Bovis and Persimmon are similar to recent comments by Crest and Berkeley,homebuilder SPs may well retreat during the rest of this year to perhaps around 35% below their 52 week highs.There seems little doubt that home sales will be more difficult to achieve over the next few years and the demanding conditions in London will inevitably spread elsewhere.Compared to the wider market though,SPs should remain sound value.

Bovis and Persimmon

Based on current guidance and broker forecasts,TEF has an EV for July of about 557p/564p per share.Some real value there at the current SP for the brave but some early news on further IPRS pipeline would assist.

Cov,yes but the market is very nervous about the short term outlook for homebuilder earnings so there may be even better top up opportunities later on.You obviously think that the market adjustment of SPs has run its course but another 10% or so reduction is not out of the question.

Cov...steady on,you will have Sain blushing.What makes you think this (392p) is a great time to top up?.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/27/uk-house-prices-in-june-grow-at-slowest-rate-for-five-years

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/berkeley-boss-pours-cold-water-on-mayor-s-target-for-london-housing-a3867616.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5861329/Renters-pay-average-MILLION-pounds-homeowners-course-lifetime.html

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2018/05/25/why-this-battered-8-yielder-could-still-make-you-a-fortune/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/20/berkeley-peak-profits-london-housing-market-brexit Just shows how a serious focus on IPRS work might be the factor that lets TEF buck the declining EPS outlook.

Cyber,interesting question and hopefully Strictly's long term records will enable him to provide an answer.