Member Info for terrace

A fund,with which former persimmon boss Jeff Fairburn has an association,has recently taken a short position in Bellway.

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House builders appear to be available right now at very undemanding prices and it is difficult to imagine that,whatever happens with covid,brexit and interest rates,that the 3 to 5 year outlook will other than spectacular.

We will find out tomorrow

USA house builders showing large SP drops this evening

Taylor Wimpey update on Thursday likely to dictate the short term direction of housebuilder SPs.

Bellway results on Weds likely to have some influence on HB SPs this week.
A solid reliable company that rarely disappoints.

No progress in earnings this year and next is disappointing.

that is an impossible question to answer.

yes not great are they but CRST do seem to disappoint more often than not and are not one of the best performers over the long term.

there is still too much uncertatainty around to be confident about anything.Covid contol,mortgage availability,government support,etc,etc.
All we can do is wait and see.Any ideas now are just guesses.

maybe the market is looking for new measures.

maybe waiting for details of government measures to support housing from April onwards.

If PSNs intention with the wording of todays update was to signal that the industry needs the government to continue support for housing,what they said,and importantly,what they did not say,was spot on.
Afull blown enthusiastic report might make the authorities think that coninuing stamp duty relief and other measures to assist buyers will not be necessary.The employment outlook for the near future is not good and buyers need to feel comfotable that they can afford a house purchase.

Todays announcement provides a degree of certainty and helps with making future plans but it will be interesting to see,when markets reopen,whether this is already in the price.
Over the next few months we should find out what is likely to happen with jobs and mortgages.

Bookmakers rate the chance of an agreed trade deal (eventually) at 70%.Boris is very pro Brexit so to leave without a deal will reflect badly on him.
We will get Covid under control at some stage and,until we do,the trick is to restrict it as much as possible with as little economic damage as can be managed.
Interest rates look like staying at negligeable levels and mortgage lenders will lower deposit requirements if house prices do not fall.Demand for mortgages remains robust.
On balance,housebuilders should be able to achieve earnings in line with their aspirations.

Thriller
Comments made on BBC tv today...dont shoot the messenger.

No deal could result in household Bill's rising by 10bn a year and much reduced variety
That was not mentioned at referendum time.
Daft decision to leave.

OWLS
The economic cost of Brexit to the UK is estimated to exceed the amount in net contributions over the last 47 years by a substantial amount.
It is going to cost us money,not save it.
I accept that we are leaving but finding it difficult to get anyone to explain what we have to gain.

The health of the house building industry has a very significant effect on a large part of the wider economy and it is difficult to imagine that the government will not continue to provide sufficient supportive measures to keep it healthy.
Macro problems worldwide are a risk but barring those,housebuilders should handsomely repay patient investment and eventually overcome the recent buge volatilty brought about by daily news events.