Member Info for terrace

Rapper.....have been waiting 20 years for that to happen.

https://news.sky.com/story/govt-pledges-to-get-more-people-on-housing-ladder-in-shared-ownership-changes-11795777

https://news.sky.com/story/mortgage-approvals-at-highest-level-for-a-decade-ahead-of-brexit-deadline-11795275

and so it will.

well its only a 9.4% yield if the SP is at todays level after it goes ex dividend for the final dividend.

Rapper...CRST have indicated that the interim dividend will be one third of the total dividend for the year.

Rapper...CRST are paying a dividend of 11.2p on 4th October to holders with an ex dividend date of 19 September.

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=TW.&share=Taylor-Wimpey

see cm45 post 12.39 pm

James
Never known a fund manager to recommend cash instead of equities.

Strictly
This calendar year,including dividends,TEF holders have seen the value of their holdings increase by just under 29%,nothing glum about that is there?.

Strictly...both Bellway and Redrow down 6 or 7% in last couple of weeks,TEF holders awaiting CBRE payment very fortunate at the moment to be out of the market.

macro comment.
https://news.sky.com/story/bond-markets-flash-warning-signs-not-seen-since-financial-crisis-11785293

Re TEF Orphans
The relative correlations between different home builder SPs and homebuilder value verses other market sectors is indeed an absorbing topic but so should equities verses cash be,particularly in the short/medium term with so much uncertainty facing markets.
Since the beginning of July,TEF holders have seen the value of their holdings frozen at 350p (plus the 8.5p dividend paid in July )and this situation will persist until the end of September at least when CBRE are due to pay holders for their shares.
Although many holders are unhappy with the 350p takeover agreed,time may well show that they are better off than had the funds been invested elsewhere for the July to September period.
On receipt of the proceeds at the end of September,holders could well find themselves at a disadvantage if they quickly reinvest in other homebuilders,because indications are that SPs could be somewhat lower by next Spring than they are now.
So whether Redrow,Bellway or Persimmon are best value is a worthy topic for discussion,so if equities versus cash.

COV....hope very much to see you on the Bellway board

Maybe the problem is that recent homebuilder announcements have indicated the likelihood of lower margins in the next couple of years and that combined with global macro issues is causing much caution amongst investors.Against the wider market,homebuilder stocks look cheap but it is difficult to argue that the SP declines will not continue for a while yet.

Strictly
I agree with just about everything you post here and elsewhere,homebuilder shares are cheap compared with the rest of the market,but hasn't that been the case for a very long time?.Perhaps though,SPs are set to become even cheaper as the reality of declining margins sinks in.Cash produces virtually no return but perhaps even that will exceed the possible outcome of holding homebuilder shares for a good while to come.I know that you don't like cash so that is where our opinions diverge.

There are so many factors weighing on the downside of homebuilder SPs ( albeit that their p/e's are low compared to the rest of the market,but whats new there? )that it is difficult to imagine what could stop a slow decline in SPs over the coming months.Some posters have voiced an opinion that current SPs are "ridiculously cheap" right now,but maybe they are headed lower still.It looks like CRST and PSN in particular will need to cut dividends by about 50% and the rest of them might moderate dividends to reflect tougher trading conditions ahead.We all know that housing is cyclical and we could be looking at a good few years before the market is on fire again.Those investors remaining involved but switching between homebuilders looking for best relative value might mitigate the reduction in overall portfolio value but cash might be an idea for a while.

https://moneyweek.com/prices-news-charts/performance-tables/

Rapper...Most of the top 10 homebuilders look pretty sensible bit Strictly picks out Bellway and Redrow at the moment.Perhaps more importantly,most of them are indicating more testing trading conditions ahead and possibly lower margins than have been achieved in recent years.So that being the case,we may see lower SPs in the coming months to reflect the real world in which these businesses operate.Nobody can consistently time the markets successfully,but personally,I don't see any rush to convert cash into homebuilder shares.

Rapper,hope to see you on the Bellway board.