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What do you make of the comments about the London market included in the BKG final results?.

https://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/m/6/berkeley-group-FY18-Results-Announcement-June-2018.pdf

The 5 main board Directors have recently been awarded a total of 289473 nil cost share options which vest in three years time based on undisclosed EPS achievement.It is always good to see Directors rewarded on a performance basis,but a shame we don't know how high the bar has been set.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MCS&ArticleCode=ebhx1ft6&ArticleHeadline=Trading_and_strategy_update

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/market-for-london-homes-over-1m-hits-alltime-high-as-buyers-shun-vanity-prices-a3863971.html

Turnover is forecast to be in the region of y/e open market IPRS total 03/18 242m 73m 315m 03/19 300m 140m 440m 03/20 313m 165m 478m 03/21 333m 195m 528m 03/22 356m 230m 586m 03/23 384m 271m 655m so IPRS turnover to increase faster than open market as guided.

On its own,the number of units produced is interesting to know but that's all.EPS ,ROEand NAV are the numbers that affect our investment value here.If we assume that a realistic plan is to increase those numbers by 10% per annum,those numbers should double in seven years.A 50/50 mix of open market/IPRS will make that a sensible aspiration.

NAV/sh p....340/380/423/470/522 EPS p..........55/59/64/69/76 ROE %...........16/15/15/15/15/15 are those the numbers you are using?.

Your figures are on a gross margin basis.To the open market % you must deduct interest and selling costs,which are substantial.According to Katie Rogers during a recent BRR media interview,build cost savings result in gross margins of 28% for open market sales and 18% for IPRS,once you deduct the open market market costs as above,the difference between the two net margins is probably plus or minus 5%.We have been guided that TEF plan is to reach a 50/50 mix between the two markets in due course.Whilst the proposed increase in units produced is interesting,it is EPS growth that matters financially.JDS has accountancy background and focuses on the sanity of financial returns rather than the vanity of the number of units built.

The vibes coming from CRST are that the outlook is for slowing EPS growth and that they consider perhaps a lesser focus on London will be in their best interests,we shall see but the slight negativity there is discouraging.We have been guided that EPS for TEF for financial year 18/19 will be in the region of 56p,a third of which will be paid out as dividends.That means a forward p/e of 7.8 at the current SP which is very attractive.Perhaps more importantly,we need significant IPRS work for EPS after that date to increase by more than 10% per annum.To double EPS over a 5 year period requires growth of an average of nearly 16% each year,a big ask with the current outlook.We have been guided that several IPRS deals are being considered and that an announcement can be expected in the coming months.We need that to happen to keep us excited together with a start this year on Nine Elms.

Closing their London office and increasing their presence in the Midlands....do Crest know something we don't?.It is likely that IPRS development in London may be more attractive than private sales in London for the next few years though.London is a BIG place with a huge population and for a good reason.

With 60,000 new homes a year needed in London and only 30,000 being built,Crest's departure should help the remainers shouldn't it?.

The guidance appears to be �50m plus PBT for the current financial year.Beyond that,significant IPRS deals will be required to maintain that level and move on to the next phase of growing the business further.Because of the time involved with those schemes,we should expect news of deals/strategic partnerships to be aannounced between now and the end of Autumn this year.It might be a while ( 3 to 5 years),before the private sales market sees the buoyant conditions we have become used to in the last five years.There appears to be more demand for rental housing than private sales developing in London in TEFs price range and institutions are inceasingly keen to become a major supplier of that product.Doesnt really matter to TEF whether they build for that market or private sales in terms of net margins.

CRST sp has taken a serious hit this morning because ,despite the dividend yield,the market thinks the company will struggle to make progress going forward.Do you disagree with that?.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BWY&ArticleCode=4lz4vr8j&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Update

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=CRST&ArticleCode=r50yylo0&ArticleHeadline=Halfyear_Report

Retail looks awful,manufacturing struggling,perhaps we ought to prepare ourselves for a more difficult couple of years,but it would be amazing if interest rates increase with the miserable backdrop.As for Brexit,when will we know what we voted for?.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/07/house-prices-rise-by-15-in-may-halifax

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-5771875/Landlords-offload-4-000-buy-lets-MONTH.html

Have been 100% in TEF since 2006,They are just a tiddler really and I like their growth prospects over the longer term (10 to 20 years ).TW are 18X their market cap albeit a top drawer home builder,but too mature for me.