Member Info for terrace

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6053337/Disgruntled-builder-smashes-row-new-build-cottages.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain

The SP is beyond logical analysis as always but the fundamentals are what will determine the market valuation of the business long term,so probably best to focus on that.Presumeably guidance for 18/19 will be achieved but what happens thereafter?.If private sale prices drift lower and volumes ease,IPRS will have to step into the breach,both to cover the private sale shortfall and at least maintain EPS.Because of lower margins,IPRS income needs to be more than like for like in value terms.So we need to hear of more IPRS deals and soon.The BODS coped well with the last downturn when the business was somewhat smaller.It is now a hungrier beast so it is not going to be easy.We are blessed with a group of very wise experienced minds on the Board,management and staff,so we have the skillset to cope with the difficulties ahead.The market will respond accordingly over the next few years as it evaluates the success or otherwise in meeting our aspirations.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/london-housebuilders-launch-big-recruitment-drives-ahead-of-brexit-a3904621.html

Bellway signalling more difficult times ahead for homebuilders,no problem for long term investors but those looking for short term returns might be better looking elsewhere.TEF SP has been a little more robust than their peers over the last year which may result from their intention to focus more on IPRS income.Their oft hinted at imminent announcement on the subject is a while coming though.TEF look ok to meet EPS expectations in the current year but it is going to be a struggle to make progress beyond that in the shorter term.Homebuilder SPs are probably up with the game now having retreated from more exuberant levels reached last year and probably realistic with the hurdles now on the horizon.Posters are commenting on other homebuilder boards are claiming shares are at bargain levels and well undervalued.Cheap yes but undervalued,maybe not.

BWY update http://www.bellwaycorporate.com/sites/default/files/2018-08/trading-update-8-august-2018.pdf

http://www.bellwaycorporate.com/sites/default/files/2018-08/trading-update-8-august-2018.pdf

CRST 36%
BDEV...…23%
BWY …...22%
RDW...…..21%
TW...……..18%
PSN...……..15%
BKG...……...14%
BVS...……….13%
TEF...………...12%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45095021

https://extranewsfeed.com/50-dumb-****-reasons-for-leaving-the-eu-66a40c72c1da

A recent independent survey has indicated that if the vote was retaken today,knowing what we now know,59% would vote to remain.We need to do want the people want now,not what they want a couple of years ago,thats democracy is it not?.

Dean...Have asked the question many times of leave voters and never once got a sensible answer.Still now,nobody knows what the outcome will be.

meant to say undervalued,not overvalued.

Hi tom....actually,you do regularly recommend TW SP as a good top up opportunity at most price levels under 200p which might have influenced some readers here at those higher levels.I am a huge fan of the long term prospects of home builders but at the moment,they are cheap,but maybe not overvalued.Announcements this year have put a brave face on the immediate outlook (well,they would do wouldn't they?) but many factors are now indicating that EPS growth is going to be much more difficult from next year onwards,not least oif thew reasons is the shambles surrounding Brexit.Even so,on several levels,TW is more expensive than some of their peers.The much heralded dividend amounts to little when the SP falls by a larger amount does it?.TW is everything you say it is,but the SP direction could well be downwards for a few years.

The whole thing is a complete shambles,what did the "vote leave" people think they were voting for?.There has not been one bit of positive news about Brexit since the referendum,it is all problems and cost rises,we should call it off.

Jimmy...just being realistic,not negative at all and the markets opinion of PURPs value over recent months has not been positive has it?.There is no collusion between my posts and those of others.

dividend...all the ingredients are in place to indicate a further slide in homebuilder SPs is likely and despite a brave face being put on recent announcements( not to do so would alarm the market and cause rapid further pressure) life is becoming increasingly difficult and they will struggle to increase EPS beyond 2019.TW shares are cheap right now but are they a bargain?.

What yield?...the SP is falling more than the dividend.

http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?SharePrice=tef

Although minimal,any increase takes money out of most pockets,personal and corporate,so just another small factor to add to mounting housing market difficulties and another little cap on SP valuations.Rate rises are never a positive influence on home builders,however small and most pressures on inflation in general are from external factors rather than domestic exuberance.Perhaps home builder market valuations will see additional pressure in the months to come and those who consider them presently to be at bargain levels,might face disappointment for a couple of years.