Member Info for terrace

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-28/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-advanced-at-slower-pace-in-june?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

persimmon 7764
taylor wimpey 5600
barratt 5525
berkeley 4852
bellway 3596
redrow 2045
bovis 1529
countryside 1519
crest 1011
gleeson 389
telford 317
abbey 296
inland 133

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/28/call-to-stop-landowners-making-huge-profits-from-speculation

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/aug/27/londoners-selling-up-in-record-numbers-to-move-north

Cyber...As anticipated by Sain at the beginning of 2018,homebuilder SPs have been falling to reflect the markets expectation of more difficult times ahead,whether that has now run its course is not knowable.All their SPs are now well below 52 week highs and if you look at other LSE boards,TW for example,posters are claiming that SPs are cheap and a screaming bargain.Cheap maybe but bargain?,difficult to know.Substantial share sales this year by Directors elsewhere indicated an expectation of lower SPs at the time.Long term holders will not be concerned though as this is all part of the passage to eventual bigger and better things,nothing goes in a straight line.We have all been spoiled in recent years with monster EPS growth which obviously had to moderate at some stage.A big uplift in the volume of modern,well managed and maintained institutionally owned housing for rent is required but competition for that work will increase and margins on that will tighten.So now might be a good time to invest further in homebuilders whilst the market is taking a dim view of their short term prospects.As the man says,"you cant do well by buying what is popular"

Strictly and Steph....In isolation,turnover or units produced increasing as you suggest,matters little to our pockets,it is EPS that we should focus on isn't it?.After the March 2019 results,EPS growth will slow significantly for a while for reasons discussed here at length previously.Perhaps you are both getting carried away with your expectations for the next ten to twelve years.It could be another 7 to 10 years (looking at previous cycles) before sales volumes and prices are on fire again.If our BOD can achieve average EPS growth after 03/19 of 5 to 7.5% ,they will be doing very well,so doubling EPS in the next ten years looks a real struggle.

https://www.suredividend.com/warren-buffett-quotes/

Dartmoor is a stunning part of the country though isn't it,even in the rain,you are most fortunate to live there.

for "think that give" read " think that we give"

Strictly.you said " So,I would say that where I differ from Terrace,Sain,steph,et al is that they might hint at forthcoming price movement but I very much don't..."
Well you have really lost me there when the whole basis of your trading system is regularly switching from one homebuilder to another in order to exploit mainly short term temporary SP relative misappraisals.These decisions you make on the basis of mainly relative PBV comparisons when we are in the dark as to how the companies value their landbanks from one accounting period to the next and how realistic those valuations are.I think I am right in assuming that Steph Sain and myself focus on operational matters going forward and don't have our heads turned by other homebuilders,neither do I think that give a Donald Duck about short term SP movements albeit that we might discuss them from time to time here when we have run out of other ideas.Atrocious weather here today so stuck on the laptop.

A much higher % of people rent their homes elsewhere in the world rent their homes rather than own them and demand for housing remains very substantially higher than supply.Good quality,well managed and maintained,modern institutionally owned housing has to be better than unreliable,often substandard private landlord alternatives.TEF decision to embrace this genre has to be applauded and may well eventually exceed private sales,at least in the near future.Whether that work can be undertaken at anything like the net margins possible with private sales over the long term remains to be seen.

HPI in London has come to a grinding halt,incentives are becoming necessary to try and tempt buyers to commit to a purchase,buyers are nervous about Brexit and how their employers will be impacted,christmas is 16 Saturdays away,the government is in disarray so there is absolutely no momentum behind new home sales right now.The second hand market is moribund preventing owners from moving on to maybe a new home.Builders announcements have been putting a brave face on the situation,not to do so would further unsettle the market.Beyond the next half year,we can expect most homebuilders to announce a halt in EPS growth, at anywhere near the levels they have enjoyed in recent years.SPs are reflecting this reality and they may have a little further to fall before fully catching up with the game.We have seen all this numerous time before though and long term holders will not be overly concerned.As far as Brexit is concerned it is difficult to see what benefits it might bring and perhaps we would be better off without it.High street retail is knackered and being replaced by coffee shops,fast food outlets and empty plots,manufacturing is moving overseas,thank heavens for the world class banking,insurance and finance operations that are centred in London.|Anyway all this points to a few years of SPs staying in the doldrums.

Strictly...BKG has bought in a total of 2,152,265 of its own shares in the last six weeks alone,so Pidgley must believe that doing so at the current SP offers the opportunity of increasing shareholder value,but probably that applies to all homebuilders right now.In the long term,these repurchases should turn out to be a very shrewd move,but not many others are following his example,why is that?.

BKG have been buying in relatively large chunks of their own shares on an almost daily basis for some weeks now.

Every business goes through difficult periods,look at high street retail right now,and homebuilders are entering a period of choppy conditions.There are those investors who consider themselves to be capable of jumping from one company to another or in and out of cash to mitigate the loss of capital ,but successful operators using that system are very few and far between.Might be best to do nothing and let our BOD navigate a passage through what ever difficulties face them on their journey and hope that our belief in their abilities is well founded.Eventually,that approach should lead to the rewards we are looking for provided we have selected the right business.

The sales by private landlords must be more than matched by the number of IPRS units joining the market and institutions are likely to be much better landlords overall.

TEF began 2018 with a SP of 419.5p and has since paid out two dividends totalling 17p.Based on today's SP of 424p,this equates to a return of just over 5% so far this year.Why is it that the other quoted homebuilders have been unable to show a return in the same period?.

Hi Dako….In what respect do Americans have different expectations?.

Despite most of the recent homebuilder announcements voicing encouraging calming comments,most of them are returning cash to shareholders beyond the normal dividends.Coupled with some fairly hefty Director share sales in the last year,this would seem to indicate that they consider it is not the right time to use excess funds within the business due to the more difficult outlook.It would also appear to be the case that the industry wants clarification of what will happen to the HTB scheme after the present proposed expiry date as a huge proportion of total sales are being made using this scheme.It may well be that HTB will become as long lasting as the period of low interest rates has been,the thought of it ceasing in a couple of years time does not bear contemplation.Current market valuations of homebuilder SPs would indicate that the market recognises these factors and it taking the "everythings OK" messages with a pinch of salt.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/21/persimmon-profits-rise-housing-market-help-to-buy