Member Info for terrace

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BDEV&ArticleCode=857opv29&ArticleHeadline=Final_Results

Having researched forensically in the past and alighted here,some posters have a "forever" time horizon for investment in TEF,that decision only being queried if and when the company disappoints operationally as a result of internal decisions

Tony Pidgley still increasing BKG's buy back with another 160,000 shares added to treasury today.

The price of any given stock at any time is basically a "futures" quotation isn't it?,buyers cannot benefit from what has happened in the past.The market is saying that homebuilders EPS performance in the next few years is going to struggle to match the levels we have become used to..Yes SPs are cheap but the market is not stupid,a little misguided from time to time,but not stupid.Sain,who is very experienced in property matters,cautioned at the beginning of this year that SPs were facing downward adjustment and he was not wrong.With the macro issues facing the UK,this mood may persist for some time,but serious long term investors welcome the opportunity to buy more of what they like at a lower price than expected.

Speaking to people " at the coalface",it is a lot more difficult selling homes at a sensible price than anyone is letting on in recent announcements.That situation is not expected to change for some time.

The job of the BOD is to achieve max operational results,not get the SP to any particular level.The market is continuing to adjust homebuilder SPs to reflect the more difficult housing market aheadThat process may not yet have run its course.

Market is questioning the sustainability of RDW results.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=RDW&ArticleCode=atbexw2z&ArticleHeadline=Final_Results

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/03/berkeley-calls-affordable-housing-targets-unviable-as-chairman-earns-174m

Steph....It is difficult to see the end of the market adjustment of homebuilder SPs until such time as Brexit is concluded,one way or another.It does appear to be a strange decision,possibly taken without full understanding of the implications,with endless problems needing to be sorted.Has the UK made a terrible mistake,should we just forget the whole thing,whatever the embarrassing consequences?.

Redrow say that they have built 5415 homes in the last year and that 35% of the buyers used Help To Buy.That scheme needs to be permanent.

TEF has an EV this month of about 570p to 577p,but with current housing market,interest rate and Brexit worries,the SP is unlikely to make much progress towards that in the short/medium term.On a ten year view,the prospects here are mouthwatering for those content to just sit and hold and ignore short term noise.Unless you are gifted with some form of fortune telling genes,it might be best just to do nothing and sit back and watch our BOD deal with the obstacles in their path.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/31/uk-house-prices-record-biggest-month-on-month-fall-in-six-years

bdev/rdw/bvs/mcs

The Directors have no direct control over the SP,all they can really do is get the business to achieve the best possible EPS.The market for new homes is much more difficult than the homebuilders are confessing to in their announcements and the decline in their SPs may not yet have run its course.

What is it about this business that people think it sensible to buy shares at 6X NAV,when there is no likelyhood of any EPS in the next few years?Thats silly isn't it?.

said in a recent interview that he has no idea where any particular SP will go in the next day,week,month or year,but would you rather earn an average of about 3% per annum on a fixed interest investment,or invest in a business that might return 15% per annum in EPS compounded over 20 years?.

Yes....this is a "be greedy when others are fearful" period for fans of homebuilders.What an insightful decision it is proving to be to crank up the proportion of IPRS work to 50% of output.Little doubt that demand is sufficient to absorb any amount of new,modern,well maintained,user friendly landlord institutionally owned housing in London.Only concern is what will happen to contract prices if all the majors target IPRS work to the same extent that TEF are aspiring to.Previous experience would indicate that a good few years might pass before the private sales market returns to the level seen a couple of years ago.Keeping help to buy going much longer than intended will be crucial to ensuring that the housing market does not collapse.Brexit not happening might be a huge relief to the wider business community as well.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-property-poll/london-house-prices-to-fall-this-year-and-next-1-in-3-chance-of-a-crash-reuters-poll-idUKKCN1LE0D6?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6079459/Mortgage-lenders-cut-rates-5-deposit.html