Member Info for taufour

"6 months ago the tin price was 25,000 and ATM was 5.7p.

Since then, tin up nearly 40%, ATM down around 15%."

True but there is a simple explanation.

Six months ago, i.e. on 17th November, there had been 5 RNSs in the preceding 45 days. Today there have been 0 RNSs in the preceding 45 days.

I would guess the initial offers were Chinese but the company has decided to go a more Europe-oriented route

which takes longer, not least because it's impossible to read the EU documentation without falling asleep by about the middle of the second paragraph; try this for example:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_24_1807

"Today, the EU, the US, and other Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) partners, joined by Kazakhstan, Namibia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, announced the launch of the Minerals Security Partnership Forum (or MSP Forum). The forum will serve as a new platform for cooperation in the area of critical raw materials (CRMs) vital for the global green and digital transitions.

The Critical Raw Materials Club announced by the European Commission now becomes a full part of the MSP Forum. This will create a greater, more ambitious joint initiative zzz linked to the Minerals Security zzzzz Partnership, where the zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

" ... got over excited when I saw “Funding Agreement” :-)"

... looks like the market makers also got over excited, first thing this morning they enthusiastically lifted the ask to 5.20 p but now drifting back to more normal levels

It's a lovely aerial pic of a mine at the top of that article ( https://ibb.co/RyHKWbx ) ... one can see the whole thing laid out.

It would be great if someone who understands how it works could lead us through it step by step.

Spot the word he shouldn't have said (and certainly there was no need to say it)

"Was hoping to have it by the end of this month but obviously that would be tomorrow - looks like it's going to be delayed a little tiny bit but not alot so I imagine it will come in in the next couple of weeks so - I think some people have expectation that it will be delivered tomorrow but I don't think necessarily we'll get it tomorrow but certainly the next couple of weeks"

"Volume has completely dried up here"

I trade around the edges in order to try to relieve the tedium.

Somehow I am responsible for 29.8% Of today's turnover.

Hi Deffo "A 1m shares, off-book, buy trade (must be) at 7.50 showing 20 minutes ago " where do you see that?

ALso please could you explain why mention "off-book" ... I thought ATM is always off-book? Thanks

Frankly I don't know whether to buy or sell. And I'm amused to note that the market appears to agree with me.

Hi pekingduck, "ATM have had a weak finance strategy from the outset - relying on a high tin price to generate free cash..."

I think the words "relying on" are not quite appropriate there.

The strategy was along the lines of:

"If the tin price is extra high, we might use some of the cash to explore new-fangled opportunities like lithium; if not, then our aspirations are to be reasonably profitable tin miners."

This strategy used to drive Matt Gordon (of Crux Investors) up the wall. The whole ethos of investment banking depends on people not thinking like AV used to think.

Just to check my understanding of the RNS ... is this pilot plant in Copiapo just a temporary installation for evaluation and testing?

Because, eventually I thought the DLE plant needs to be in the same place where the brine is pumped out of the ground, so that the brine can be returned to the ground.

Copiapo is about 240 kms from Laguna Verde ... downhill, fortunately, but still a fair distance to truck brine.

All along they've been saying that line 2 will be financed by operational cash flow, and that's what the website still says.

There are agreements in place which affect how operational cash flow can be used.

We don't know the details but I think we can assume the main point is that a sizeable proportion of initial operational cash flow must be used for repaying debt and debt interest.

If interest rates are higher than expected, this means that the financing of line 2 will be delayed by a corresponding amount.

Well, in the August Q&A, JM made an intriguing remark: "... and I will say that there is a big drive from our major shareholders to advance line 2".

To me this suggests that the company is toying with the idea of an imminent fund-raise in order to get started sooner on line 2. The recent appointment of Barclays as broker corroborates this suggestion.

Well what do people think?

Choice 1 is: continue with the austere path originally laid out, and put up with any delays due to higher interest rates.

Choice 2 is: accept dilution in order to get line 2 going quicker.

Hi wasarunner "Page 10 from the July presentation 'Key Araguaia Line 1 Statistics' has been removed."

No it is still there, they simply transposed the page ordering slightly so it's not where it was before.

The only difference from the July version is

July: "Line 2 feasibility study underway - publication due in 3Q 2023"

August: "Line 2 feasibility study underway"

However, note that this is not a slippage, it is simply an error correction:

the July version saying 3Q was obviously an error because the original RNS for the line 2 feasibility study (6th March) targetted 2H.

How do planned debt repayments compare with projected operating profit?

There should be a graph somewhere showing one overtaking the other at some point.

Interesting change since last September. In RNS last year September 15th,

"It is intended that the Tin Royalty be secured but subordinated to the existing Standard Bank Debt and DBN Debt Financing"

In today's RNS,

"US$12.5 million unsecured tin royalty."

Is this what Orion and the Namibian banks have been arguing about all year (it was explained that it was something about an inter-creditor agreemeent) and does it look as though Orion have softened their position about the tin royalty being secured.

So how do they compare? I'm not very clear with some of these financial concepts, hoping someone will help.

It would be nice to be able to say that today's package sends a message to Orion that their proposed deal was too arduous, but I don't know enough details to be able to do that. Gotta say though that the royalty element always felt extortionate.

"Https ... nice to have but in reality makes little odds on a site you only read the content"

Hello AIMtd, you seem to enjoy trying to defend the hard-to-defend so try this.

On the contact page for the company at the London Stock Exchange

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ACP/armadale-capital-plc/our-story

it gives a link for the company website

https://www.armadalecapitalplc.com/

If you try to follow that link, what happens is browser-dependent but for example Firefox says:

"Secure Connection Failed

An error occurred during a connection to www.armadalecapitalplc.com. Peer reports it experienced an internal error. Error code: SSL_ERROR_INTERNAL_ERROR_ALERT

The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because the authenticity of the received data could not be verified. Please contact the web site owners to inform them of this problem."

Well I'm not in contact with the web site owners but you are so shouldn't you do something about this?

Do people realize that the website problem still is not fixed? Only the insecure version (http) not the secure version (https) is available.

I suppose it's possible that the company is run by hippies from the early days of the internet when everything was built on trust and security mechanisms are to be disdained. If so, tell me and I'll look at the company with renewed interest.

I think more likely, the company either does not know about, or does not know how to address, the problem.

Just to mention that at least one of the recent trades at 7.54 is a buy

There have been several at that price in the past hour ... so it looks like they are all buys, and the trades at 7.5 are sells

HL now asking 8p

I would guess that some of the people who bought during the run-up on Tuesday are now wondering what to do next.

And to help them decide, they are now jiggling things around, to try to find out how much they can influence sentiment and the share price.

Hopefully they will soon discover that ATM is a more sober stock than what they are used to dealing with.

It might be interesting to look at how much volume we are talking about.

If we take the run-up as starting first thing Tuesday, and ending with a single solitary and brave purchase at 7.9p at 9:02 on Wednesday morning,

2023-06-14 09:02:49 (GBX) 7.9 10,098 797.74 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

then by my calculations there were:

126 trades below mid-price, volume 8,192,268 shares

67 trades near mid-price, volume 2,522,051 shares

151 trades above mid-price, volume 6,982,356 shares

https://luku.org/xi/ATM/nqpuuah9/

I hope everyone enjoyed the turmoil. Looks like around 7 million shares bought in that time wondering what to do next.