Member Info for taufour

If anyone here is in contact with the company I suggest letting them know that only the insecure (http:// rather than https://) version of the website appears to be there.

"No comments about not being able to access the website, or it it just me. Lol"

No it is not just you. Everyone is going around on tiptoes to find out how long it will be before the company notices.

It's not stagnating it's just relaxing

Why do you have to be so negative

Dry season began pretty sharply around 19th May

Well this is wild speculation. But since there is a paucity of information, people can hardly object if wild speculation ensues.

There is a new world stirring, characterised by local initiative.

The Bank of Namibia represents this new world, and along with other Namibian institutions wishes to increasingly call the shots about what happens with Namibian resources.

Orion represents the old world, where the shots are called in distant London.

These two might not be able to agree, unless one side essentially surrenders, which neither side might wish to do at this point.

So which side do we cheer for? Go Orion, or Go Bank of Namibia?

Pekingduck, "is Namibia really the 'perfect' African mining jurisdiction..?"

I'm getting the sense that Andrada's long-term strategy is to be a good corporate citizen of Namibia,

... so one of the main things they would be looking for with the help of Barclays is a bidder who would invest in local refining capability.

Hi. Interesting.

The phrase "Zero human rights complaints" only occurs in the summary.

In the body of the report, it is "Zero legitimate human rights complaints".

Hi cat7

The rogue trade at 138.75p on 15th May (the only trade less than 140p since 5th April) was 54,600 shares (gbp 75,759)

Trade was timed at 8:02 GMT, published after 8:21

But ... "Can you recall" ... ?! Well I gotta say I'm not doing this from memory, I have a cron job (running on a google cloud instance, completely free of charge, it has now been running for about 5 years) which logs the trades each day. Here is 15th May,

2023-05-15 07:02:49.720 --:--:-- (GBX) 140.6 9 12.65 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 07:43:26.393 --:--:-- (GBX) 140.02 11 15.40 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 07:56:54.753 --:--:-- (GBX) 140.02 7,147 10,007.23 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 07:57:18.683 --:--:-- (GBX) 140 7,148 10,007.20 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 08:02:55.550 08:21:25 (GBX) 138.753 54,600 75,759.14 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX

2023-05-15 08:03:19 ... --:--:-- (GBX) 140.5 336 472.08 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 08:06:17.557 --:--:-- (GBX) 140.6 755 1,061.53 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 08:21:25.850 --:--:-- (GBX) 140 78 109.20 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 13:50:27.190 --:--:-- (GBX) 140 1,426 1,996.40 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 14:58:16.830 --:--:-- (GBX) 140 350 490.0 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 15:20:00.430 --:--:-- (GBX) 140 1,000 1,400.0 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 15:25:36.503 --:--:-- (GBX) 140 1,067 1,493.80 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

2023-05-15 15:35:13.890 --:--:-- (GBX) 140 25,000 35,000.0 UT AIMX P

(note, times are in GMT)

The last couple of days have brought about a change of fortunes at the top of the flatness table.

The previous leader KBT (the share which I described the other day as being too boring for words) has collapsed to 4th place owing to an outlying trade of nearly 50 pounds a whole percentage point above the ask on Thursday.

Accordingly, MLI moves up to first place, with HZM now on 2nd and FUL on 3rd.

Another day of suspended animation and I took the chance to re-do the mechanism at https://www.luku.org/flat/ to make the statistics a bit beefier.

Even with the inclusion of that single rogue trade at 138.75p on Monday morning, HZM is number 3 in the overall rankings for flatness.

Top is KBT (a share which looks so boring that it is hard to see how it even exists)

Second is MLI (subject since 14th April to a Recommended Cash Offer)

Third is HZM, and FUL has dropped to 4th place.

Well it looks like some joker decided to try and ruin the picture by making a single rogue trade at 138.75p on Monday morning.

However, if we strengthen the statistics, we should be able to ignore such obvious provocations.

As I mentioned, that first attempt at measuring flatness was rather simple-minded, just comparing each stock's maximum share price over the whole period with its minimum.

I think what we should do to get a more realistic picture of flatness is look at the standard deviation of each day's volume-weighted trading from the average over the whole period.

Unless the current state of suspended animation ends tomorrow and HZM starts getting some movement, I will have a look at that.

Here is a first attempt ... https://www.luku.org/flat/

As it says,

"Share prices are meant to undulate or wobble. Lack of wobble shows up as flatness in the share price graph. A simple way of measuring flatness would be simply to take the ratio of max share price to min share price over a period. Less means flatter. This page compares the flatness of shares on the London stock exchange over the period of 31 days up to 13th May 2023 (list of shares from LondonStockExchange.com/reports with price and volume data from Yahoo finance) omitting ultra quiet shares that on most days have zero trading activity."

Well obviously I carefully chose the period of 31 days until 13th May to match the time when HZM has been unusually flat.

But even so, the results if I may say so are pretty stunning.

Over this period, HZM was the flattest share on the market.

The second flattest is FUL (Fulham Shore), and that is flat because it has been subject since 5th April of a takeover bid which looks likely to succeed.

Obviously that's not the case with HZM but who knows!

According to yahoo finance, the last time HZM traded outside the range 140-142p was on 11th April.

It's all very well for people to say that nobody wants to buy or sell, but given that there are actually trades happening, this amount of flatness is excessive and unnatural.

I'm thinking of making a list of all shares on the London market and seeing how many if any are as flat as HZM.

(Ignoring the ultra quiet shares that barely trade at all).

If anyone has any ideas for other measurements which it would be worth making while I'm about it, please let me know.

Worth making the point that Michael Rawlinson who recently joined as NED was previously Global Co-Head of Mining and Metals at Barclays Investment Bank.

I think the dry season is starting this week. Hard to be sure, but I think that looking back to this week after a couple of weeks from now, it will be clear that the dry season started this week.

Anyway, presumably more important that whether it is raining or not, is how damp the ground is. If anyone has local contacts who can give an opinion on that, please say.

Nice presentation on Monday

Compared with previous presentation (BMO conference, February) just a couple of amendments to the project schedule:

Engineering (detailed design) extended slightly to end of 23Q1 (now hopefully finished)
Water Dam completion pushed from 23Q2 to 23Q3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y60ioicdcuQ at 4m06s

The script says, "Solid state battery production was until recently a science-fiction concept, due to how difficult it was to accomplish. Then a group of brilliant Stanford scientists and academics joined..."

Wowzer. At this point, an image pops up. It looks as though the video editor asked Google Image search for an image of a Stanford seminar.

What they might not have noticed is that the seminar is entitled "Science and Spirituality in Conversation", hosted by the Stanford School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences.

"According to recent polls, most Americans are supportive of science and also identify as religious or spiritual. However, some scientists are uncertain about how to foster dialogue about science or their specific research interests with individuals who hold religious perspectives and faith-informed worldviews. This winter, please join us for a conversation between Dr. Willis Jenkins and Dr. Nalini Nadkarni, moderated by Stanford Earth Dean Stephan Graham, on developing discourse between researchers and religious publics."

Great stuff indeed.

I added percent-of-time-raining to the weather widget at http://luku.org/rain/ ... it gives a better idea of conditions.

The transition to dry season is proceeding similarly to last year, should arrive at the nickel project area early to mid May.

"Wet season ending any day now ." Appreciate the thought but be a little bit patient.

Round about now one can see the beginning of the dry season in the upper reaches of the Araguaia river but it is still rainy at the nickel project area, where the dry season arrives in late April or early May. Looking at weekly rainfall data for January to June last year (data from open-meteo.com) at Araguaia Nickel South, the second number is rainfall in mm for that week, and the third number is the fraction of time that it was raining (e.g. 0.58 means it was raining 58% of the time overall during the week).

2022-01-02 62.90 0.58
2022-01-09 56.20 0.51
2022-01-16 24.80 0.30
2022-01-23 35.00 0.39
2022-01-30 40.40 0.33
2022-02-06 45.00 0.51
2022-02-13 44.00 0.51
2022-02-20 31.10 0.41
2022-02-27 48.00 0.44
2022-03-06 69.60 0.51
2022-03-13 26.20 0.38
2022-03-20 22.30 0.26
2022-03-27 60.70 0.46
2022-04-03 23.70 0.32
2022-04-10 21.50 0.28
2022-04-17 88.70 0.63
2022-04-24 1.10 0.04
2022-05-01 30.30 0.15
2022-05-08 1.70 0.08
2022-05-15 7.10 0.10
2022-05-22 2.50 0.05
2022-05-29 10.90 0.12
2022-06-05 2.90 0.05
2022-06-12 7.10 0.14
2022-06-19 0.00 0.00
2022-06-26 0.00 0.00

The rainiest week was the week of April 17th (88 mm, raining 63% of the time). The week immediately following was the first properly dry week of the year, though rain continued, but much less, into May.

"rainy season due to end soon I think"

Yes it's the time of year to crank up the rain-reporting software.

Last year and the year before the rainy season ended between 1st and 15th May. Instead of gradually tailing away, there was a fairly sharp transition between wet and dry over about 2 weeks ... March and April were just as rainy as Jan and Feb.

But just to note, in presentation a few months ago JM mentioned that remaining as productive as possible through the rainy season was going to be one of their priorities.

New near neighbour, Askari Metals

"The Uis Lithium Project is located less than 5km from the township of Uis and less than 2.5km from the operating Uis Tin-Tantalum-Lithium mine owned and operated by Andrada Mining Ltd, within the Erongo Region of west-central Namibia"

https://www.askarimetals.com

They have progressed from collecting surface samples (Sept/Oct) to exploratory drilling (Nov) to detailed mapping (Feb)