Member Info for taufour

Hmm ... ok I did some homework

https://anchor.fm/mining-stock-daily/episodes/An-Introduction-to-Horizonte-Minerals-e1b38mb/

" ... there are no collars, it is effectively priced off LME, which means that our shareholders get maximum uplift to nickel price going forwards ... "

That, to me, and in particular the word "effectively", means that there is some hidden complexity involved in the price formula, and that *tied to* the market price would be a better way of stating it than *at* market price.

Hi Lawrence, I think it would be good if some of the things you say could be fact-checked.

For example, "Glencore Off-take Agreement ... at FULL Market Price !!!"

Do you know that this is true? If so, it would be good if you or someone could give chapter and verse. Apols if someone already did this and I missed it.

As I recall, this bit of the conversation started when someone said that banks are often not impressed with off-take agreements unless there is a floor price built into the agreement.

Then someone else said that in such a case, the off-taker would be in a good position to insist that a counterbalancing ceiling price should also be built into the agreement.

The result was that several people here were terribly worried for several days. (You know how people are.)

Next chance he got, JM explicitly ruled this out. But I don't think he actually said that Glencore would pay the full market price. (Again, someone please correct me if this is wrong). I think his language was more subtle, something along the lines of the agreement not limiting the company's upside exposure to higher nickel prices.

So what that would mean is that there is some formula, based mainly on the market price, which determines what the off-taker pays. For example (I am just making this up on the spot as an example) it might say that the off-taker pays the lesser of the current market price, and the volume-weighted average price over the last n days (for some value of n, say 30). I think that would be a quite reasonable compromise between the conflicting interests of the miner and the off-taker. It would mean that a sudden rise in the nickel price would take up to 30 days to feed through to the company (and a spike lasting less than 30 days would be significantly flattened).

Anyway, that is just an example. Unless you know for sure that the agreement is *at* the market price, I think it would be better if you could say that the agreement is *tied to* the market price.

Or you could say "tied to the FULL market price!!!" if that would suit your style better.

The stock exchange's public-facing trade reporting system went whacky around close of play on 14th December.

Here is what they reported for 16:20 onwards on that day:

2021-12-14 16:20:15.873 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.2 67,853 4,206.89 Off-Book AIMX P
2021-12-14 16:22:48.727 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.2 72,661 4,504.98 Off-Book AIMX P
2021-12-14 16:23:55.393 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.23 10,570 658.51 Off-Book AIMX P
2021-12-14 16:27:29.250 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.2 70,854 4,392.95 Off-Book AIMX P
2021-12-14 17:02:22.857 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.236 1,000,000 62,360.0 Off-Book AIMX P
2021-12-14 17:20:15 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.2 67,853 4,206.89 Off-Book AIMX N
2021-12-14 17:22:48 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.2 72,661 4,504.98 Off-Book AIMX N
2021-12-14 17:23:55 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.23 10,570 658.51 Off-Book AIMX N
2021-12-14 17:27:29 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.2 70,854 4,392.95 Off-Book AIMX N
2021-12-14 18:02:22 --:--:-- (GBX) 6.2362 1,000,000 62,362.0 Off-Book AIMX N

The five trades timestamped from 16:20 until 17:02 are repeated an hour later with the flag 'P' changed to 'N', timestamped from 17:20 up to 18:02

Flag 'P' means "principal, identifies whether reporting counterparty has concluded contract on their own behalf or on behalf of a client"

Flag 'N' means "Non-financial counterparty"

Flag 'HTH' means "hope that helps"

I don't understand where the shares came from that allowed Maven to partially close.

I mean, looking at the data in a very simple minded way, it appears that, yes, Maven made a profit, and it was mainly the market makers who suffered the corresponding loss.

Ought one to feel sympathy for the market makers?

google contagious site:https://tirupatigraphite.co.uk lol

There is no mystery about why the company has organized an open offer for private investors.
At an AGM a year or two ago there was a question asking if the company would make sure to include an opportunity for PIs when they do their major equity placing.
JM answered Yes OK.
So they have made the token gesture because they are obliged.

Freethecat "How would anyone have got them below 7p?"

Presumably the placing agent does not pay 7p to the company for each share placed, but a bit less, say 7p minus commission. So a variety of players could have access to these shares at a price of slightly above 7p minus commission.

We don't know how much the commission is but for a clue we can look in the RNS: "It is intended that the Equity Fundraise, Glencore Subscription and the Open Offer will result in the Company raising total gross proceeds of up to approximately US$205 million (approximately US$198 million after expenses)."

Presumably the rate of commission varies quite widely across the different streams (equity placing, cornerstone subscription, strategic investment etc) and so could be quite high for the equity placing.

7.5p is goldilocks ... just about right for existing investors and incoming investors to feel ok. Look at it this way. Disregarding pre 2013, the HZM share price first made it through 7.5p on August 27th 2020. Looking at the day's closing price for each working day since then, we get that:

it closed below 7.5p on 178 days
it closed at 7.5p on 4 days
it closed above 7.5p on 132 days

How did I work that out? Easy. Yahoo has a handy download button on its history page at https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HZM.L/history

Setting the date range from Aug 27th last year up to today, and pressing "download", gives a csv (comma-separated value) file containing 315 lines, of which the first line is a header. Omit the first line and sort the remaining lines on the 6th field, which is the adjusted closing price:

"cat hzm.l.csv | tail -n+2 | sort -t, -k6"

which gives a file containing 314 lines, where the frst 178 lines have closing price below 7.5, the next 4 lines have closing price of 7.5, and the remaining 132 lines have closing price above 7.5.

Not convinced? Do you think that is looking too far back into the past? OK let's just look at this year, Jan 1st until today. We get

below 7.5p on 99 days
at 7.5p on 1 day
above 7.5p on 116 days.

Still not convinced? Tough crowd. OK let's just go back to the February placing. From Feb 19th this year up to today we get

below 7.5p on 99 days
at 7.5p on 1 day
above 7.5p on 91 days.

If we take that as a plausible date for when negotations for this deal moved into their final and most serious phase, then we have that the closing price has been below 7.5p more often than it has been above 7.5p while these negotiations were in progress.

I hope this isn't off topic ... as it is weekend I'll take the risk.

For some other battery-related (or green-revolution-related) metals, and in the spirit of one-stop-shopping, I have added a metal selection box to the vanadium price info page at http://luku.org/am/

The currency tends to be yuan, so the numbers may not correspond with how one normally thinks of these prices, but they should be interesting in terms of showing trends.

Now the cron job at http://luku.org/am/ has been running for a grand total of two weeks, there is enough data to start giving a continuous table of recent history instead of just the current day.

It is experimentally pulling vanadium price info from asian metal.

Hi DaddyBigBucks thank you for your reply but could you clarify it?

"... when Bushveld agreed to partially repay early this made the initial lock in and orderly sell void. I had this confirmed by Chika. ... should have also said, As some of the repayment was is shares, these were not subject to any restrictions."

Trying to understand this, I'm guessing it means that any shares issued to Duferco as part of an early repayment agreement are not subject to the orderly disposition provisions in the original agreement.

Which would be perfectly reasonable.

But (again guessing) that would not remove the orderly disposition provisions from other shares covered by the original agreement.

Is that right?

Didn't the original agreement include an orderly disposal clause?

If so, then an obvious possibility would be that Duferco has now agreed to take extra shares, instead of cash, in return for the removal of the orderly disposal clause.

"Is the V price around $35 in China or is it way higher than this, as it is getting confusing with the websites ?"

According to asian metal today Ferro-vanadium 80% FOB China $35.50 - $36.50 (+1.41%)
http://luku.org/am/

last bit (did not fit in previous post)
Vanadium Pentoxide Powder 98%min EXW China
2021 oct 19th 1.98% 102000 104000
2021 oct 20th 1.94% 104000 106000
2021 oct 21st 1.90% 106000 108000
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 106000 108000

Vanadium Pentoxide Powder 99%min EXW China
2021 oct 19th 0.91% 110000 112000
2021 oct 20th 1.80% 112000 114000
2021 oct 21st 1.77% 114000 116000
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 114000 116000

Vanadium Pentoxide Powder 99.5%min EXW China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 127000 132000
2021 oct 20th 0.00% 127000 132000
2021 oct 21st 0.77% 128000 133000
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 128000 133000

Note, the software has not yet had to cope with a minus sign, heaven knows what will happen then :-)

I have been trying out a cron job for various vanadium prices from asian metal
Columns are: date, percentage change since previous day, day low, day high
Here is the output so far, starting last tuesday:

Ferro-vanadium 50%min Delivered China
2021 oct 19th 0.85% 118000 120000
2021 oct 20th 1.68% 120000 122000
2021 oct 21st 1.65% 122000 124000
2021 oct 22nd 0.81% 123000 125000

Ferro-vanadium 50%min CIF China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 29.50 30.00
2021 oct 20th 0.00% 29.50 30.00
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 29.50 30.00
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 29.50 30.00

Ferro-vanadium 50%min In port China
2021 oct 19th 0.86% 116000 118000
2021 oct 20th 1.71% 118000 120000
2021 oct 21st 1.68% 120000 122000
2021 oct 22nd 0.83% 121000 123000

Ferro-vanadium 50%min In warehouse Russia
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 1200 1230
2021 oct 20th 0.00% 1200 1230
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 1200 1230
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 1200 1230

Ferro-vanadium 80% FOB China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 34.20 35.20
2021 oct 20th 0.86% 34.50 35.50
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 34.50 35.50
2021 oct 22nd 1.43% 35.00 36.00

Ferro-vanadium 80%min In warehouse Rotterdam
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 31.00 31.50
2021 oct 20th 0.00% 31.00 31.50
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 31.00 31.50
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 31.00 31.50

Ferro-vanadium 80%min In warehouse Pittsburgh
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 31.00 31.50
2021 oct 20th 0.00% 31.00 31.50
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 31.00 31.50
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 31.00 31.50

Ammonium Metavanadate 98%min EXW China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 97000 99000
2021 oct 20th 1.02% 98000 100000
2021 oct 21st 2.02% 100000 102000
2021 oct 22nd 1.98% 102000 104000

Vanadium Nitride N 14%min EXW China
2021 oct 19th 1.90% 159000 162000
2021 oct 20th 1.87% 162000 165000
2021 oct 21st 1.83% 165000 168000
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 165000 168000

Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 92%min CIF China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 6.00 6.10
2021 oct 20th 1.65% 6.10 6.20
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 6.10 6.20
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 6.10 6.20

Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 92%min In port China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 93000 95000
2021 oct 20th 2.13% 95000 97000
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 95000 97000
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 95000 97000

Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 98%min EXW China
2021 oct 19th 0.97% 103000 105000
2021 oct 20th 1.92% 105000 107000
2021 oct 21st 2.83% 108000 110000
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 108000 110000

Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 98%min CIF China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 6.40 6.50
2021 oct 20th 1.55% 6.50 6.60
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 6.50 6.60
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 6.50 6.60

Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 98%min In port China
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 100000 102000
2021 oct 20th 1.98% 102000 104000
2021 oct 21st 1.94% 104000 106000
2021 oct 22nd 0.95% 105000 107000

Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 98%min In warehouse Rotterdam
2021 oct 19th 0.00% 7.80 8.00
2021 oct 20th 0.00% 7.80 8.00
2021 oct 21st 0.00% 7.80 8.00
2021 oct 22nd 0.00% 7.80 8.00

I once saw a bear in the wild without at first realizing what I was seeing and couldn't understand why the hairs on the back of my neck were behaving strangely.

It turns out one has to have a twitter account to send a message to someone on twitter.

An alternative route if Jimbo is around:

I've annotated xlon with my email address and a link - could you send email if appropriate, thanks.

How could a non-member send a message to the telegram group? Sorry to be a bit mysterious, I need advice from them before saying more here.

Hi loudspeaker, "Asian Metal didn't publish through out the Chinese holiday"

Oct 1st thru 7th was Golden Week. Are you suggesting the market could have been unusually volatile in the following week because it had catching up to do? That could help explain it.

Hi loudspeaker, thanks for your reply. "a little bit of detective work and a calculator is needed." OK detective mode

Setcentric has screen shots of asianmetal.com on his twitter for each working day going back to Monday last week, unfortunately for last Friday the screenshot is of a different page showing ferrovanadium; the other days show vanadium flakes and powder so let's look at them.

Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 98%min EXW China (I think EXW stands for "ex-works")

Oct 11th +2.17%
Oct 12th +2.13%
Oct 13th +2.08%
Oct 14th +2.04%
Oct 15th xxx (screenshot is of different page)
(weekend)
Oct 18th +1.98%
Oct 19th +0.97%

If we put 0% for Oct 15th (though that is surely an underestimate) these numbers suggest a price rise of more than 11% since beginning of last week. Is that believable? Alternatively let's try "Vanadium Pentoxide Powder 98%min EXW China" (but the data for Oct 11th is missing, the screenshot for that day shows only flakes):

Oct 11th xxx (screenshot doesn't show powder)
Oct 12th +2.15%
Oct 13th +2.11%
Oct 14th +2.06%
Oct 15th xxx (screenshot is of different page)
(weekend)
Oct 18th +2.02%
Oct 19th +1.98%

Again putting 0% for Oct 15th (surely an underestimate), would give a price rise of more than 10% since Tuesday last week.

I'm not sure if the "Latest" column in asianmetal means can really mean "daily price change"

There is another possible source of info at www.vanadiumprice.com which covers "V2O5 Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 98% Price USD/lb" but it doesn't show anything like 10% rise over the last week in fact it claims to be flat for Oct 11th to 18th

So something is wrong, the question is what.

Hi setcentric, where are you getting your daily price information from?

www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html has a column labelled "Latest" which shows percentage changes, but they don't say what these numbers are measuring

Just in terms of looking at the size of the numbers, they don't appear to be daily changes in the price, I think they must be something else.