Early Q224 Apr 2022 20:19
Will there be a ground breaking ceremony? Should there be one? Has it already happened?
Actually what I'd like to hear is that it already happened, in February, when a local school child, perhaps a descendant of one of the farming families that owned the land originally, starred in a quietly dignified ceremony organized by the staff of the office at Conceicao do Araguaia.
Be that as it may, the reason for this note is to make it harder for negative people like contrarian to complain about "shocking delays" or whatever they try to come up with along those lines.
(Contrarian was the one who spent several posts arguing that the management is secretly scared of trying to build a mine and that's why they shockingly haven't started yet. "I still maintain that none of the BoD actually want to be involved in building a mine. They are deal makers, powerpoint guru's and paper pushers.")
But also, I think some positive people might have been a tad optimistic about what "early Q2" means in "The Project is well positioned to start the main earthworks at the start of the dry season in early Q2".
The fact of the matter is that it is still raining at Araguaia Nickel South, just as much as it has been doing since October (and since mid October it rained literally every day except for October 29th), and that this is entirely to be expected and is totally normal.
Rainfall in last week: 77 mm
Rainfall in last 10 weeks: 630 mm
Rainfall in last 20 weeks: 1358 mm
Rainfall in last 30 weeks: 1834 mm
Meaning: it rained more in the last week than it has been doing on weekly average over the last 10 or 20 or 30 weeks.
The transition to dry weather, when it comes, is quite sharp, taking about 2 weeks, and it looks like it could happen this year between 1st and 15th May. That is based on the fact that for the last several months, the pattern of rainfall this year has been very similar to last year, and that last year the transition to the dry season occurred fairly sharply between 1st and 15th May.
I think that when the company says "early Q2" it is dividing Q2 into two halves, early Q2 (1st April to 15th May) and late Q2 (16th May to 30th June).
In which case, start of main earthworks any time before 15th May would be within schedule as so far given.