Member Info for TakingMyTime

"Spratt...never forget NC will own 70% of the company at the point they have to offer. "

No, they will own 70% of Haverion. We don't know if they own any of GGP currently but if they do it is less than 3%. If they wish to buy out GGP's share of Hav, it will be GGP's management / BOD who will make the decision. If they wish to buy GGP in entirety, it will be the shareholders who make the decision -- but in all probability the majority of shareholders will follow the recommendation of the GGP BOD.

Your strategy should be based on what you think the share is worth. You should buy if you think it is worth more than the current SP.

Once it reaches what you thought it was worth when you bought it, then you reassess. If you now think it is worth even more than you thought back then, then you might want to continue to hold. If not, maybe it's time to sell and look for the next bargain.

You might also want to sell part of your shares when you reach your original target price, even if you now think it is worth more. That depends on how much you can use the money, how nervous you are about it, and how much more you actually think it is worth.

If your share has reached its target price but you now think it is worth a lot more, you can take a lot of the risk out of holding it buy selling part of your holding. Now, you've made a nice gain on that part of your holding, so if things go wrong on what you keep, you'll still not have done that badly.

But say you bought GGP at 1p, with a target of 3p, but by the time it hit 3p, you thought it was worth 15p. Well, you could cash out with a killer profit, but where else will you get an investment for 3p that you think will turn into 15p? So your target has moved, and you probably shouldn't sell. But if you think that your 3p is worth 5p, well, that's still a really good investment but there are other good ones, so maybe at that point you want to take some profit.

But when it reached 3p, if you thought it was only worth 3p, you should have sold.

Basically when you buy you make a guess at what you think it is worth, but then you really do need to reevaluate when it reaches there and say, "Has the target changed?" If it has, you probably want to keep holding at least some of it.

That's the general idea.

The other thing is to hope that a bidding war starts between NCM, Barrick, and Rio for GGP, and they end up buying the company for £3 / share. That takes it out of your hands! You take the money and look for the next winner!

Under-promise, over-deliver.

If they said right now, 'no quarantine', and things got bad and they needed to bring it in, that would kill flying more than anything else.

If they say right now, 'quarantine, but we're talking about air bridges', then people will start buying tickets, and in 2-3 weeks, all going well, there will be 'air bridges' or whatever we're calling them then to most of the world.

It's always easier to relax things later than to tighten them later.

What they say the first week of June doesn't matter if you aren't really flying until July. By then, we're going to see a relaxation unless the world goes really bad again.

Most of the market knows this which is why the SP shrugged it off.

It's not, he posted on GGP at least as far back as 2018. I looked before answering him.

Will you hate yourself if you sell and it goes to 25-30p, or higher?

Will you hate yourself if you don't sell and it drops to, say, 5p?

Which do you think is most likely and which would you hate the most?

If you're not sure then, sitting on the profit you've described, you should probably take some profit. Chances are you'll lose some money that way but if you aren't sure, then cash in some of it.

How much should you cash in? That depends on the answers to the questions I asked.

Really good sign if the SP holds up and even increases in the face of a strengthening pound.

The shorters have lost their shorts and are running around feeling exposed.

GGP is quoted in GBP. GBP is way up against USD, while the dollar price of gold has been pretty level (just below where it was late last week).

What that means is that the POG in pounds is down. So we should expect the shares of GGP in pounds to be down a little, too. It doesn't mean the value is really lower, it means the value of the currency in which it is quoted is a little higher.

Which probably nobody cares about, lol.

Yesterday morning 7:24 I said:
"Obviously the future is unknown but the market will assume it's going away by the end of the summer at the latest, and this share is likely to go above 250 and stay there today, and headed higher."

Got any predictions to match it?

Why do you think that the entire market, that can read the same stuff you are reading, is taking the exact opposite message from you? Are you smarter than the whole market? People are paying real money to buy shares at a higher price.

Caitlin is over ramping on BP now, lol. Can you imagine thinking you could move the market on a share like that? The only two people likely to be able to move the market on BP are in the White House and in Beijing.

'Cover' in this context means to issue buy/sale/hold recommendations. They don't do that on GGP.

'Restricted to working with institutional clients.' Not only can he not give you anything for free, he can't take you as a client, either.

And even if he could, he couldn't tell you when a report is coming out, which is what you were asking him.

In other words, on more than one level he can't help you even if he wanted to, and he can't even tell you what he thinks you really want to know -- should you buy or sell GGP. Because they don't make that recommendation, at least at this point.

If it were me, I'd thank him for his courteous reply, wish him well, and recommend he buy some GGP shares. Well, maybe not the last, LOL, but I'd be tempted.

I'd be slow to assume this is right. Morningstar still shows the same ownership (22mln shares).

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership

Perhaps Morningstar isn't entirely up to date. But if they aren't showing it then I don't think you can safely assume that Sprott's holding is increasing.

As an example, a couple weeks ago Caitlin was all over the IAG board predicting 80p over and over again. Claimed that her (or his) deramping got the entry price she wanted on Carnival. It's seriously deluded.

@AKA "Tone it down and stop trying to lead members up the "garden path"."

Caitlin does this all over this forum. No analysis, no substance, just repeated predictions. Ramp, deramp, on and on. I just suggest filtering.

As if someone thinks that ramping a share the volume of BP has any effect. Even if you convinced everyone who reads these boards to buy and to short when you want them to, you'd never move the price on BP. It's not an AIM share.

@MFU "Mickey1122 I was thinking the same some of TMT'S quotes read very similar to OT!"

Definitely not me, sorry!

24 April on PSN board, I wrote in response to a GGP tip there, "Re: ggp, I've decided it doesn't fit in my risk profile. Perhaps an odd thing to say for someone holding EVR. :) Glad it's done so well for you and others. If I'd bought it when you guys first tipped it I could retire now."

Then, on 27 April, "Off-topic, but told my better half about our discussions and she decided to take a flyer on GGP, more for the fun of it than anything. So if you're right we won't totally miss out on it."

So, I'm definitely a newbie here, even if I have the good fortune to sound like a respected former member of the board. Hope he comes back!

No, it's largely irrelevant. £15mln stake in a company with market cap of £65 billion. That's around 0.02% of the shares in the company, will hardly have moved the market.

If they want to be ethical they should look to safeguard contributors' funds rather than moral posturing. BP hasn't suddenly started doing something unethical, it's doing what it's been doing all along. If you've decided that now you don't like it, divest over time in a way that protects the value of the funds that were given to you, in some cases at a great sacrifice to the donors. All my opinion only, of course.

@spy
Thanks, that makes sense. If we weren't next door to Telfer 1.5p might be optimistic, especially since no one knows what POG will do. Telfer hugely derisks the whole thing.

Sorry, Mickie, not me. I'm only a legend in my own mind, but if GGP goes to 0.74, you will be a legend, and I might become a legend in the minds of my children and grandchildren. Which would be unfair because it was my wife that decided to buy here, historically I've been far too conservative for something like this.

@spy "going back to before EG, all of the research was around 1.5p per million."

Thanks for the reply.

Just two things: POG is much higher now than it was then, right? And AISC at Hav (because of Telfer) would be much lower than at EG. Don't those factors suggest 1.5p is a very conservative estimate for Hav?

I'm not opposed to using conservative estimates, I'd just like to know if that is what we're using.

"You oldtimer TMT?"
In years or in GGP holdings?

I'm pushing into the risk zone for Covid, but am a total newbie in GGP. Still trying to figure a lot of stuff out. Why?

"1.5p per 1moz is what you need to work off. too many fag packet numpties on here"
Assuming constant POG at USD 1700
Assuming AISC <$900 (since we're told this will turn Telfer into a Tier 2)

So net per oz $800 (USD). Per moz, $800mln.

We own 30%. $240mln / moz. $0.06 / share, which is about 4.8p at current exchange rates.

Obviously, that's over time, present value (today) would be less than that, POG might go up or down, blah, blah, blah.

But why do you say only 1.5p? Just conservatism? Higher AISC? Or am I missing something else blindingly obvious?

I'd been assuming 2.5-3.0p / moz for Hav.