Member Info for TakingMyTime

@spy "going back to before EG, all of the research was around 1.5p per million."

Thanks for the reply.

Just two things: POG is much higher now than it was then, right? And AISC at Hav (because of Telfer) would be much lower than at EG. Don't those factors suggest 1.5p is a very conservative estimate for Hav?

I'm not opposed to using conservative estimates, I'd just like to know if that is what we're using.

"You oldtimer TMT?"
In years or in GGP holdings?

I'm pushing into the risk zone for Covid, but am a total newbie in GGP. Still trying to figure a lot of stuff out. Why?

"1.5p per 1moz is what you need to work off. too many fag packet numpties on here"
Assuming constant POG at USD 1700
Assuming AISC <$900 (since we're told this will turn Telfer into a Tier 2)

So net per oz $800 (USD). Per moz, $800mln.

We own 30%. $240mln / moz. $0.06 / share, which is about 4.8p at current exchange rates.

Obviously, that's over time, present value (today) would be less than that, POG might go up or down, blah, blah, blah.

But why do you say only 1.5p? Just conservatism? Higher AISC? Or am I missing something else blindingly obvious?

I'd been assuming 2.5-3.0p / moz for Hav.

@Higbert
Investopedia is a US-centric site, but it has lots of good basic info in layman's terms. It talks about dividends usually being quarterly, that's much more the case in America than it is here, though it is the case with BP.

Anyway, they have a nice little article on dividends that you might find useful: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/dividend_implications.asp.

Good luck!

Billy is correct.

Dividends are a very significant portion of return on investment for shares like BP. You really should learn at least the basics. Everyone else who is trading BP is very, very aware of how the ex-dividend date affects the share price. So even if you aren't holding for dividends, you need to understand them or you will make mistakes that cost you money.

"#shortersheaven"

Just wondering, given your interest in heaven, are you intending to go there anytime soon?

Purely a matter of academic interest, I'm not suggesting anyone hasten your journey there.

To be fair, recent events can bring LTH who were always lurkers out of hiding -- it can get exciting when you suddenly have a ten-bagger! Almost enough to make you stop lurking!

And some of them may not have been part of this forum until recently, anyway.

I never even joined this forum until last year. I'm not a LTH here but I've owned RDSB for years and never commented on their board here. And had held BP for 8 years before commenting on that one.

If you believe:

1. GGP other projects are only worth £30M
2. The poster's interpretation of Citi that Hav is Tier 2
3. GGP only owns 25% of Hav
4. Hav is merely a stop-gap for NCM

then the person who posted that is probably right that GGP is overvalued, and you should sell any shares you hold and certainly not buy more.

I don't believe any of those things. Neither does H&P, and they seem to have researched the matter a little more thoroughly than the poster has, since at least they do know how much GGP owns, LOL.

Sprott thinks the poster is wrong and they've put £2Mln of their money where their mouth is. If the poster puts £2Mln of his money into shorting GGP, then he will have more credibility.

It's going to be a blue day for this share.

I think most people have assumed the quarantine wasn't going to hold for long but now we're getting dates.

Obviously the future is unknown but the market will assume it's going away by the end of the summer at the latest, and this share is likely to go above 250 and stay there today, and headed higher.

I'm in ABF too and it's been plenty volatile recently.

This is a pretty stable investment if you just ignore the price swings and bank the dividends every quarter.

Yes, it is too late. The market is closed.

Try again tomorrow. You may have to pay more than you would have paid today, which is more than you would have paid Friday, which is much more than you would have paid six months ago.

But it still might be a lot less than you will be able to sell it for in a few days/weeks/months. Or maybe not, maybe you'll lose it all. The market is like that.

But most of us think it's going to be a lot higher within a few months, which means you'd do well to buy tomorrow. We might be right, we might be wrong. Good luck.

@singer67
Please be sure to tell us which High Street to avoid when the time comes.

4.39% of their holdings.

What made them jump? Havieron.

NCM was up Friday and up again today. Somebody thinks they are worth buying, too. Havieron.

Why they became convinced now? Perhaps they are hearing rumours about the next results and thought they needed to get in before that.

"Haha! 50p dividends and 5.50 a share, I'll be retiring before I'm 35 if that did happen!"

If you can prove it won't happen, then I'll concede the "potential" isn't there. LOL.

Hi, Gigi. In layman's terms, the short term potential varies from:
1. Next results disappoint everyone, the market turns sour, price of gold falls, and we're back down below 2p
To
2. Next results are stellar, price of gold shoots to $2500, Newcrest Mining says, "We want to own this," and pays 75p / share for GGP.

Medium term potential varies from
1. Havieron disappoints, Scal is a bust, nothing else really works out, eventually drops to 1.5p.
to
2. Hav is bigger than Telfer, Scal is bigger still, 5 years from now we're mining both and discovering gold elsewhere. Share price is £5.50, paying 50p dividends annually.

Where will it fall on that spectrum? Nobody knows. Do your own research to decide where you think the risk/reward picture lies and how it fits with your investment needs/horizon/temperament, and invest accordingly.

Lot of discussion as to who the big buyer was on Friday.

Am hearing, without being able to confirm, that it was Credit Suisse buying on behalf of Sprott as their UK agent.

What this means is that we still haven't cracked the big fund houses. Sprott is an institutional investor, yes, but they are specialists. Arguably the Marlborough fund is, too.

It's possible that the Sprott investment will draw the attention of some of the really big boys. For now, though, all it really means is 12 million more shares in sticky hands, some very happy people took some really nice profits (and might regret it later), and a bunch of shorters got taken out, hopefully rather painfully for them.

I think it would be a mistake to assume the momentum is going to continue, unless/until we see non-specialist funds get involved. We've re-rated and I won't be surprised if we never look up at 10p again, but the rapid climb to 11p is not likely to be repeated without major news or another major investor coming along.

I expect this to bounce around but trend up towards maybe 12p or so before the next news.

I am often wrong, of course.

"They are here because of perceived risk that us mere wee investors know nothing about."

I think we probably know all about most of the perceived risk here. There's no secrets.

The fact is that some of us are less risk averse than others. For those who aren't risk averse, this one is very appealing. We also have greatly differing perceptions on the likelihood of the risks playing out. Some are very worried, others see the risks as relatively minor, but that doesn't mean everyone doesn't see them.

And also, we have different investment horizons. For someone who is retiring and needs their money later this year, there's a huge risk here. A second wave of the virus could drop BP much lower and destroy them. For someone who can lock their funds up for 10 years if necessary while waiting for a recovery, the risk is much lower -- chances of a recovery some time in the next 5-10 years (or less) is very , very high.

The price is low because a lot of market participants have a view that the risk is not worth it. That's an opportunity for those who think it is worth it and are ready to wait it out.

@schlemial
Worth noting that this was happening at the same time the NCM SP was going up on the open market. Existing investors were buying at AUD 25 and the SP was going up over $30. So someone who wasn't an existing investor was putting a lot of money into NCM as well.

Which means there's getting to be more and more belief out there that Hav is huge.

"I have Bloomberg . no credit suisse Greatland gold cross reference that i can see immediately."

I hope to have Bloomberg access later today. I do have Refinitiv Eikon. It has no indication of Credit Suisse buying Greatland.

That doesn't mean they didn't, but they aren't listed on Morningstar yet, either. If it were the private bank division rather than the funds division it might not necessarily be listed on Morningstar.

At this point my default assumption is that it wasn't them. We already know who purchased even more than the 12 million shares that day. It's not impossible that there could be two IIs active on the same day, of course. I think it's very likely that someone is picking up some shares today. Maybe even CS. But I don't think they were the big buyer on Friday.

Like I said in an earlier post, rumours fly in the City.

@FlyingMuel
There are almost 4 billion shares issued. It's going to make no difference at all if you stop yours being loaned for a short. They will just loan someone else's.

The people who shorted on Thursday and Friday are paying a high price today for having done so. The short squeeze is almost certainly part of the reason the price is going up so much today.

You should not worry about this. You are a new investor, that's obvious from what you've said. There is so much you don't understand, and this is one of them. You are on a winner with this share and the shorters will only have a temporary effect on that, and probably help you as much as they hurt themselves. Don't mess with stuff you don't understand, you can end up making a big mistake, and in this case, you'd be messing with stuff you don't understand that is likely to have no detrimental effect on you at all if you ignore it. I would strongly recommend you ignore it.