Member Info for TakingMyTime

Partisan politics isn't helping anyone make better investment decisions on this share. I suggest you take it to the local pub. There isn't anyone there right now but at least you won't have to hear anyone disagree with you.

There's an institutional investor that has decided it's a big money-maker.

It's not gold, gold prices went up about 1% this afternoon. Other miners (Barrick, Rio) didn't see this kind of action.

NCM ADRs (American certificates that basically let American's buy NCM shares even though they are listed on a foreign exchange) went up about 4% over a couple of hours at the same time GGP shares started to climb.

So somebody started buying both NCM and GGP. If you put over a million pounds into NCM the shares will move up nicely. If you put over a million pounds into GGP it puts a rocket under it.

Somebody did both concurrently, it looks like. That way, the NCM buys wouldn't wake up the market in GGP to what was going on, and vice versa.

Fairly standard practice if you believe in a joint venture, buy both partners heavily concurrently, often done near the close of trade.

10p is cheap compared to what they'll pay in a few months if they want to buy the company.

It's also cheap if they are wanting to buy out GGP's share of Hav and generate a really nice special dividend.

"maybe people moving to metals wondering what trump will do with China later"
I thought that too but we're not seeing that kind of move in the metals market.

@Matty "and chuck it all into GGP"

Well, now we know who did it!

"If there was a leak we would be smashing straight through into double figures with much greater volume than we've seen today."

Yeah, I think this is right. It's not a leak, it's just catching up.

Part of it might be some institutional investors that have now done their research after the news of the last couple weeks and decided, yes, they want in.

There tends to be a lag on that kind of thing with small shares, they aren't usually going to enter this lightly even if it looks really good at first.

"Spy hi,
the 11th is Thursday ??????"

I no longer trust him for time travel. Disillusioned again.

"Not sure the gov't will be seen to lose face and backtrack though, maybe they'll just allow more 'airbridges'. fingers crossed"

That's what I expect. They'll add "airbridges from now until the beginning of July until the quarantine is meaningless, and then scrap it in mid July or so because "it's not needed anymore but we'll bring it back as needed."

My money is where your mouth is.

@cheated
"what about the airlines' part in the spread of the virus?"

You obviously aren't invested in IAG nor do you intend to invest in IAG. You have a thing about IAG but you aren't adding any information that would be of interest to people who are investors. I suggest you take it to a political forum somewhere, you're just boring and/or annoying people here.

Maybe you're the type of person who likes to do that, though, all while posturing about your moral superiority. There are people like that.

Depends on who the broker is.

If the "broker" is Newcrest Mining it will be somewhere between 25-40p.

If it isn't NCM, I don't care, pull a number out of a hat, makes no difference to me.

"Some crazy figures in it, plus a rather accurate guesstimate on the reserves of Hav"

How does anyone know it's remotely accurate, at this point? Maybe I'm just stupid but I didn't think anyone was to that point yet, I thought that was still a month or two away?

"TMT if they can ‘only’ justify £1billion for our part of Hav there is no way they can justify £1billion for the rest - even if scally is solid gold!"

Well, I did say "at least".

GGP has other assets besides Hav and Scally, not least of which is expertise.

If you think it would take a Hav valuation that puts our share at £1.8Bn instead, doesn't change the main point. The main point is that to get to a 50p share price, Hav (or Hav+Scally combined) has to be known to be a monster, and if it is a monster, NCM won't have any trouble raising the cash to buy it and everything else.

"So basically they will add Hav ore to telfur ore and have a teir 2 facility, but Hav would still be a teir 1 mine ?"

I read it as saying that if the costs associated with processing are split between Have and Telfer, that then reduces the cost associated with Telfer and turns Telfer (not Hav) into Tier Two. Key paragraph:

"The combined operation could then turn Telfer into a tier-2 asset. Newcrest defines such a gold asset as more than 200,000 ounces per annum with over 10 years of life at costs of less than US$900/oz."

The combined op reduces the Telfer costs to less than US$900/oz.

It's not saying anything about what Hav is. It's saying that Hav processing means all the processing costs don't have to be attributed to Telfer anymore and makes Telfer look better than it did previously.

"Could they afford to pay 50p though ? (or more for that matter) Genuine Question"

Easily.

I'd say they aren't offering that unless the Hav drilling results justify at least 25p / share on Hav alone. Using rough figures, 4 billion shares, that's £1 billion for 30% of Hav and £1 billion for other assets.

If they can justify £1 Bn for our share of Hav, then they can certainly raise £2 Bn. That makes THEIR share of Hav worth about £2.3Bn.

Without any clear numbers on Hav they easily raised USD 1.5Bn just to refinance higher interest debt. Anyone really think they'd have any difficulty raising another USD 3Bn if their share of Hav is worth almost that much? That's just debt financing.

And of course, they could always use equity financing, either by offering a mix of shares and stock or by simply offering new shares on the market to raise the funds. If Hav is good enough to justify a 50p price for GGP, NCM can certainly raise the funds to pay it.

Whether Haverion is good enough to justify it, whether they would want to pay that or not, and whether GGP would accept it, of course remains to be seen. But raising the funds would not be an issue for NCM if such an offer were justifiable, and if it isn't justifiable, it won't happen.

@Spy"It's called time travel....lol"

Could you just please pop forward a couple years and check the GGP SP, and then pop back and tell me? Check the history for any special dividends while you're at it, too. Oh, and might as well check NCM, too. Just in case.

Oh, and if the news is bad? Just stay in the future, I don't want to know.

Something weird with this board.

Spy's correction is clearly being shown as happening before my post but it wasn't visible even after I posted and saw that someone else had beat me to it.

Spy's response to Prospector is being shown as posted before Prospector's response. Huh? I'm sure Spy knows some stuff before the rest of us but I don't think he knew what Prospector would say before he said it.

If there's stuff being posted that isn't showing immediately for some reason, or some kind of timing mixup in the way things are clearing through for some people, that makes me think that quick on the trigger replies are probably not a great idea here.

I wasted time replying to Spy, and probably annoyed him in the process, on something he'd already corrected. And I'm not the only one. But it wasn't my fault, there was no correction visible.

Does this forum allow editing your posts?

"Well done to all who know and knew this was is a winner and see you at the 300-400 mark"

I'm holding longer than that, I expect to see 6-700, even if it takes 10 years. Hope to see you there!

@Goldenl, beat me to it, LOL.

Is this any different from the one announced on 22 May? Doesn't look like it.