Member Info for TakingMyTime

"Minimise dilution
Maximise shareholder value
Sell the 5% to cover their costs

Looks like we hold till mining chaps. this is going to rerate to stupid amounts eventually"

Maybe. But if he wanted to sell, he'd be saying the exact same thing. He wouldn't be saying, "Oh, we want to sell." He'd be playing hard to get to maximise the buyout price.

"Will people be up for queuing for 6 hours waiting for results before going on holidays?"

For a weekend in Paris? No. For a week in America or a fortnight in the Caribbean? Sure, if that's what's required.

Would you give up a long-awaited week-long holiday just because you didn't want to wait six hours at the airport? Buy yourself a good book or book into an airport lounge and have a nice snooze while waiting.

Oh, and make me pay for the test, too? Well, let's see. A fortnight for two in NY is going to cost, hotel, meals, transportation, something like £7-8K, maybe? Am I going to be bothered by paying a few quid for the test? Not likely.

Theoretically they could pull a dividend at the last minute. A lot of companies did after the shutdown hit. Practically, there would have to be major (bad) new events happening to justify it or you lose credibility with your investors.

For instance, PSN declared a dividend which hadn't been paid before the shutdown, and they pulled it. Some investors certainly weren't fans of the decision, but most understood that a housebuilder that can neither build nor sell houses needs to conserve its funds, and that if the lockdown had been known in advance, no dividend would have been declared.

For BP to pull their dividend after declaring it, they'd really need to have something new and very significantly negative happen.

Probably time to do a deal. Intu probably needs it more than ABF right now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52704216

@944 "I do apologise, what I was trying to say was. Newcrest will want all the gold that they get out of Hav."

Of course. I would like to have my neighbour's car, it's better than mine.

But, I suspect if I asked to buy it from him he'd want more for it than I'd want to pay.

If GGP said, "Here's the other 30%, give us $1," they buy. If it's "Give us $10bn" they probably don't buy.

It doesn't matter what Newcrest wants, everyone knows what they want. It's what they are willing to pay and what GGP is willing to accept. And, if there's no agreement, would they attempt a hostile takeover?

The latter seems unlikely but may be part of why GGP engaged H&P, to try to get the SP up to better defend against a hostile takeover.

Yeah, there's injustice in society. So what? Your lockdown, if anything, is making it worse.

The elites aren't being hurt by the lockdown. Most of them are still being paid. The politicians and the civil servants and the BBC all have gold-plated pensions, it's not their pensions that are being destroyed. Every journalist writing a scare-mongering article or heart-breaking article about someone who died from covid19 is on full salary. The lockdown isn't hurting them.

It's the people who work hard and don't have massive reserves who are being crushed by the lockdown. You can't get away with both whingeing about the lockdown being lifted and then spouting class warfare. It's working people and small family businesses that are being destroyed here. The lockdown needs to be lifting, fast. Yes, it will cost lives. So will keeping it, probably in the long run far more.

So, duster, you want to keep quarantine and no doubt lockdown. First wave has cost 400 lives under the age of 60. Do you know how many lives the lockdown is costing? Might think about that.

Suicides. Domestic murders. Alcoholism and drug abuse, which leads to more deaths. Deaths due to delayed medical treatment. Deaths due to people not seeking medical care due to the lockdown. How many of those are acceptable? How come those lives matter less?

Clear correlation between poverty and shorter life-span, and the lockdown is inflicting massive unemployment and poverty. Some of that poverty will be permanent. People in their 50s & 60s may be unable to start again. Employers will have their pick and they'll pick younger. Older people who lose their businesses don't have enough years to build another one. Many of these people will live out their lives in poverty, and some will die earlier than they would have.

Don't be so quick to claim the moral high ground over keeping restrictions going. Look at the average life-span in countries with strong economies vs countries with weak ones. These restrictions are killing people and will for years to come.

"With regards housing, yes demand for a roof is there, but we have already witnessed government wants an ever bigger share of the pie."

Well, you make some good points about housing, to which I could respond, but I probably shouldn't have started that conversation here, there's enough here without it. If you want to discuss on the PSN board, glad to do so.

"can someone tell me ho to avoid this without recoursing to Real time priice subscription"

One way would be to walk away from your computer and get a life, but opportunities like this can take over our lives, right?

"I think we are heading into a perfect storm. Trouble whichever way you look!"

I think so, too. Governments have decide that the way to respond to the pandemic is to destroy massive amounts of wealth. Whether necessary or not, I don't know.

"Gold - traditionally a safe haven, but known to be prone to political diktat - confiscation, nationalisation of mines, taxation etc etc."

But presumably this is not likely to be an issue with this investment, and that's why when my wife said she wanted to do this, I went along. There's so much risk in this kind of investment but this one doesn't have the same kind of political risk that a lot of others have. If inflation eats all our other investments, it won't eat this one, and this one isn't going to be nationalised, I guess.

I'm also in BP quite a bit now in part because I think oil is an inflation hedge and I don't think BP is extremely vulnerable to nationalisation. Also in PSN because no matter what we'll have a housing shortage in this country and PSN builds more affordable homes than some others do. Most people may not see PSN as a defensive investment but it might help counter some of those things you described.

FWIW. It's hard for me to picture a world where GGP isn't a good investment if there's as much gold at Hav as we think, even if everything else turns into a dud.

Thanks, Epsadrilles, didn't know that about Hannam. I agree, it doesn't change my view. If Hannam has had his fingers burnt before, he'd be likely to either keep his hands well away from the fire or only take a risk that is really worth it. This doesn't fall into that category. And we already thought they were being conservative anyway.

"You also aren't the sharpest knife on the block if you remotely believe Trump means anything he says, his words of wisdom change by the minute"

Trump intentionally contradicts himself to keep people guessing as to his real intentions. It's all in his book. He thinks he'll get better deals if his counterparties don't know what he's really after.

If anyone invests based on things he says, they are likely to make big mistakes. Look for what he actually does.

I'm not saying he isn't crazy, but he's also intentionally making himself appear crazy as a negotiating tactic. Next week, he'll be saying how great his relationship is with China's president, and that things are going great in negotiations, and the following week he'll say how he's going to be sending the entire US Navy to the Taiwan Strait. None of it means anything.

One of the reasons the US press hates him so much, they try to read between the lines and predict what's going to happen, and with Trump, you can't read between the lines of what he says, because what he says isn't even on the same page, and probably not even in the same book, of what's actually happening. And he does it intentionally. He's the biggest internet troll the world has ever seen.

@Chippy6, no one thinks you misled, you reported. I hadn't seen it.

@schlemiel "So is Hannam advising Greatland or not?"
Yes. We don't know in what capacity. I'd hope no one would be surprised, though, at GGP getting M&A advice at this point, since it's reasonable to think an offer might come sometime in the next year or two. And it's reasonable to think that advisor might be making suggestions of ways to maximise that offer if it does come.

@Sanboy "Is that not price sensitive news and as such distributed information via company RNS?"
Depends on what "that" is. If there's a formal offer, of course. If they simply have the brains to look at the situation and say, "NCM may want to buy us out, or may want to do a joint venture on Scal, let's strengthen our position," of course not. If it's somewhere in between, it depends on where things are.

@Academy
"Acceptable minor non-monetary benefits shall be reasonable and proportionate and of such a scale that they are unlikely to influence the investment firm's behaviour in any way that is detrimental to the interests of the relevant client."

Right. H&P has to be very sure that their note is in the interests of their clients, or they would risk falling foul of this regulation. If an investment firm isn't getting paid, then they are just giving advice. When they give advice when they have been paid to do so, it sets a higher ethical and regulatory bar, and they have to disclose. To overcome the conflict of interest concerns, they have to ensure that they are not giving advice detrimental to their clients. Otherwise, the clients come back and say, "You told me to buy, you set a target price of 12.9p, it only went to 11p. That was detrimental to me because I could have bought something better. AND, you were paid by them to give that advice. You've taken advantage of my trust."

It explains their conservatism. They believe it's worth more than 12.9p, but because of the MIFID II situation they have to be very careful.

Premise for my post is this from Chippy at 8:29 today. I've still not seen the report, I'm taking his comment at face value, because I'm assuming he wouldn't have made up the MIFID II part, that's not something people would usually pull out of thin air.

Chippy:
"H+P is a retained advisor to Greatland Gold. The cost of producing this material has been covered by Greatland Gold as part of a contractual engagement with HP
This report should therefore be considered an “acceptable minor non monetary benefit “ under the MiFID II directive.

That was on the report so make of it what you will"
***end of Chippy comment
@Lenz, re: whether GGP needs to raise capital. Of course they don't. But the threat of walking away from a proposed deal and raising capital can certainly strengthen a negotiating position.

Astounding. To think his/her deramping on a chat board is going to have any impact on the SP of a company with a multi-billion pound market cap.

Especially that kind of deramping.

But I'm happy he/she got the desired price, maybe will be a slightly happier individual going forward.

In a previous post I poured cold water on the suggestion that H&P might be advising on a merger/acquisition involving GGP, because the initiation note would be a conflict of interest.

The existence of the MIFID II note/disclaimer means they've covered themselves on that. So it's a real possibility that something is in the works and that they are involved.

Further to that, let's just ask ourselves why GGP would pay for this? How does it help the company make money? It's obvious how a higher SP benefits us, but how does it help the BOD accomplish THEIR goals? They've paid for it. Why would they do that? Just because they like us?

I see three likely reasons:
1. They want to be able to issue more shares to raise more funds, and if the SP is higher that means it will take fewer shares to raise the funds. I guess the reason for this would be if they wanted to become miners rather than just explorers.
2. They are in, or expect to be in, takeover discussions and a higher SP strengthens their argument that a buyer has to come up with more money.
3. They are in, or expect to be in, discussions about the buyout of their remaining share in a current joint venture OR entering into a new joint venture, and a higher share price strengthens their negotiating position because they can just threaten to do #1.

Those are the three reasons that stand out to me why they would pay H&P to do this. Note particularly my suggestion #3 -- it's possible that this is not about Hav at all, it's that NCM (or someone else, for that matter) wants to joint venture Scal, and they are positioning themselves to say, "You'll have to pay a higher price, we can do this ourselves now if we want."

All of this is pure speculation, of course.

@Paddy "I think we are all pretty confident that the HGZ will be extended to the NW as the step-out drilling continues..."

Not me. I'm clueless on this stuff. I looked into it and decided I didn't understand enough to invest here, so passed on it a while ago like a fool. Was telling my beautiful bride about it and she decided she wanted to take a flyer on it (she doesn't know anything either) because people like you sounded like you really, really knew what you were talking about.

So totally contrary to my usual practice, we're not really "investing" here, we're flying blind. But I'm learning! Enough to know they were conservative in this note.

Thanks for all your help on this board. If this works out like we think it might I'll owe you and some others a lot!

"Does anyone have a rough idea how much itll cost to pay off 12,000 employees?"

Yes. Willie Walsh does.

"''US$50m for our non-Havieron assets...interesting''

Don't you mean laughable!!??"

No, it's conservative. They've done their research and gone conservative on almost everything. It's perfect for them. If their conservative estimates come true, their investors will still make a killing. If it works out even better and they start to walk the target up, their investors will love them even more.

If they hadn't been conservative and had gone to, say, 16p on their target, and it only came out to 12-14p, they would have disappointed clients.

This is a broker's dream, they can push their clients toward a huge opportunity without the risk of overplaying their hand. So they went conservative on almost everything here. Smart people.

If they made the target 13p, I'd bet they really think it's in the 15-20p range, maybe even better.

No, I didn't buy more shares. Not that big move.

I filtered two posters. Half of the board disappeared, it's glorious.

I didn't filter everyone who has a negative view of this share. I'm happy to hear other views, that's why I come here. But when someone uses two-day old news, which the market has obviously already factored in, to keep on deramping, I'm done.