Member Info for TakingMyTime

@Testing " I'd wager this is what caused the rise - https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership"

That update was as of Friday. Not sure how quickly data passes from ETFs to Morningstar but I'd be a little surprised if a Friday update by Morningstar would reflect after-close trades by Sprott.

You could be correct, though. In any event, Sprott has been buying before the big trade on Friday, that big trade was less than 0.3% and they own twice that.

@merc "Schlemiel its Legit, CSFB took the 10m on Friday"

Fund group or private banking group? And how do you know?

Rumours fly in the City. Someone will say it is, someone else will say it's someone else. Might never know.

What does matter is that the rumours make other people look closer. Others are likely to come in. If Hav is as big as expected, a lot of money to be made.

Probably no II's betting on Scal yet, it's all Hav.

Looks like all it took was one institutional investor to take out all the shorts and we're off towards a much more realistic evaluation.

Today, any shorters left are getting massively squeezed. And we've broken through past the "just another AIM flash in the pan" narrative. Can definitely see more II's coming into the picture, now. FOMO kicks in, anyone (PI or II) thinking about getting in is starting to realise it's now or never.

I said Friday we might hit 11p today. Perhaps I was too cautious?

But of course we might see a pullback before the end of the day.

Looks like all it took was one institutional investor to take out all the shorts and we're off towards a much more realistic evaluation.

Today, any shorters left are getting massively squeezed. And we've broken through past the "just another AIM flash in the pan" narrative. Can definitely see more II's coming into the picture, now. FOMO kicks in, anyone (PI or II) thinking about getting in is starting to realise it's now or never.

I said Friday we might hit 11p today. Perhaps I was too cautious?

But of course we might see a pullback before the end of the day.

"T1 or T2, Telfer hardly makes any money"

Newcrest definitions, T1 requires AISC/oz to be <$800/oz, T2 <$900/oz.

Telfer produced 452K oz in 2019, easily enough production to be T1, but the AISC/oz was $1253. It's not producing enough to get the AISC/oz down.

Citi's point was that if Hav ore is coming through, all the fixed costs are shared between Hav and Telfer, and that significantly reduces the AISC/oz, down below $900. Then, Telfer becomes Tier 2 again -- easily enough production, and AISC then low enough.

If POG keeps ascending to where I think it might, NCM might want to reevaluate their Tiers, but with their current definition, Telfer is not Tier 1, not even Tier 2.

Telfer is not even tier-2 currently. Historically, yes, it was tier-1.

Announced today, all Primark stores hope to be open in June. Here we go.

Well, there was already at least one insto involved (Marlborough), and Friday's may have been another.

If someone still had shorts open at the close on Friday, it's not been a happy weekend for them. What will they do, try to ride it out? It might only get worse.

Might be a blue day overall, shares in Japan are up, HK way up. Not likely to be dragged down by the rest of the market, either.

NCM up nicely in Oz, too.

"No that has only been mentioned by an analyst,Citi I think,when they stated HAV ore if mixed with telfer could make telfer a tier two."

I certainly didn't take that to mean that the ore would be mixed.

I took it to mean that the processing costs at Telfer would be split, some attributable to Hav, some to the Telfer mine. That would lower the avg processing cost for the Telfer mine, making it more profitable again, and turning it into a Tier-2.

Attributing some costs to Telfer and some to Hav is not at all the same as mixing the ore. I don't even know why anyone would do that.

I do think that what we've seen in regard to Citi's comments is confusing. I haven't checked to see whether the problem is with Citi or with the reporting of what they said.

Who said the ore is to be mixed with Telfer prior to processing? I don't recall seeing that anywhere.

@stumpy
"It could have been an MM (or maybe 2) closing out a short book on month end - they don't always get it right."

That would be getting it wrong on an epic scale, to leave it until the last hour of the month to try to resolve a 12 mln share problem. That would be 'someone's-getting-fired' level of getting it wrong.

@mickey "who would do one buy at 1m and stop"

A fund investor who had decided exactly how much they wanted to put into GGP. They very possibly might do exactly that.

Probably not this one, though, since they were looking for 12mln shares, not 10mln. So they are probably going to be looking to pick up another 2mln tomorrow. Maybe first thing in the morning, or maybe they'll hold off for a while to see if the SP drops a little and they can get it a little cheaper in the afternoon.

"It’s possible currencies could collapse pushing up the dollar which can be bad for gold, it could be the dollar and gold rise why all else falls. Who knows."

In today's environment I would not want to be without some US dollar assets.

I would not want to be without a significant cash holding, either. But I do admit this share is tempting me to blow up my investment strategy.

Well, I'm going to find Monday fascinating even if there is no RNS. It's that other 2 million shares that I find intriguing. If the buyer just says, "Go ahead, get me the other 2 million as well," it's likely to take out any remaining resistance, and who knows? We might get close to that 12p target by the end of the week, even without any RNS or other news. If they decide they've got enough and don't go for any more, then we could see a drop back. Or, they might decide to pick it up gradually and we could just stay supported right around 10p.

I actually have more professional interest than financial interest in this one. For us, GGP is a side-play, something my wife decided to take a flyer on almost for fun. We've got enough in it to care but we'd have to see a SP over a pound for it to really make much difference for us.

But watching this unfold from the PI side of things, not knowing exactly what's going on but having some good guesses, makes it really interesting. Unfortunately since the stake involved is well below reporting thresholds we might never know who it was and why they did it the way they did. But it's still very interesting / fun. And also exciting to think that for some of my fellow shareholders, it could be the start of something that truly is life-changing. That's a pretty special thing to be part of even in a small way -- lots of people never experience it at all.

"It’s a bit unusual for a big institution to buy like happened on Friday. They usually buy over a couple of weeks stealthily and then a tr1 appears and everyone is shocked"

Except it's still way below the threshold for a tr1, unless they've been stealth buying for a long time.

12 million shares is around 1/3 of a percent, right? It's a large chunk of money, no doubt, but it isn't getting anyone any control or any particular influence. It's the kind of buy you might see from a hedge fund / small-cap equity fund. Or maybe a private bank, to allocate across some of their clients (if the surge in NCM is related, this might be it, they'll have clients who want greater exposure to gold).

A stealth buy happens when you want to build a bigger stake. This investor probably doesn't want to go any bigger than the 12 million shares, at least not right now. You don't want to wake up the market if you are going to keep adding. This investor didn't care about waking up the market, which suggests that this investor is done once they get their 12M.

"TMT are you out of your mind?"

LOL. Wasn't me who first suggested it would open lower. It could happen, but I also think we're heading up, not down.

Like I said, I'm also certain our buyer was an American institutional investor who didn't get all the shares they wanted on Friday. If that's the case, they'll be back for the rest soon. Maybe, just maybe, if American, they'll hold off until later in the day, or maybe even for a couple days, to see if it drops back again.

But I don't think that's what we're dealing with. If you are going in more than £1M, you do that because you think you're on a winner that's going to make you at least 20-25% (far more, in this case, I think), and you don't mess around with trying to save 1-2% on the purchase price, you just buy and get your hands on it.

That's what it looked like to me. This wasn't somebody trying to gradually pick up shares here and there without spooking the market, this was somebody who wants the shares badly enough to be willing to pay even above the current market price for them. So I think they'll be back on Monday for the rest of their shares.

I think something else, too. I think it will happen again. The professionals are starting to pay attention.

@TomE
"Personally I believe the SP will resume back on Monday to the actual closing price around 9.4p and not the end Auction UT figure at 10p. (It will show up as a closing price but it is the UT price and not the actual normal trade price as we know it as)."

That crossed my mind, too, but I'm not so sure. The buyer wanted 12 million shares and got just under 10 million. If they come back for more after the weekend, that's a buy of 2 million shares that's going to be hitting.

And the MMs likely don't have any left after yesterday.

Many looking to take profit above 9.5p will now be taken out.

Anyone still short will be scared and most will be looking to close out their short positions.

You could be right, but if our buyer still wants his other 2 million, and maybe if he doesn't, I think we'll stay clear of 10p. News is coming soon, it's a bad time to be getting out of this share.

I think it was an American institutional investor. The share started to move not long after they opened up in America. Might have been one of the groups in that NCM II meeting a while back. The debt guys told the equity guys, the equity guys did their research, and boom, here we are.

Lots of discussion about if you enter a sale at £1 (or whatever) you can stop your shares being loaned for shorters.

Three things to remember.

First, there are closer to 4Bn than 3Bn shares. Not everyone who owns them cares if there are shorters -- it has no impact on anyone holding for the long term. If holders did have the power to stop their shares being used, you would never get enough of them to join in to have any impact. 10 million, 100 million, even a billion shares, would have no impact.

Second, it will take a LOT of shorting to significantly impact the share price. It would probably take an institutional investor doing it, and I doubt any are that stupid as to short this share right now.

Third, if shorting is really going affect share price, so will the closing out of the shorts, in the other direction.

Unless you really, really need to sell, you shouldn't care about shorting. If you want to top up, shorting may be to your advantage in that the shorters may help you get a marginally lower price on your top-up.

By the time they'd sold a third of it they would have driven the SP down to where they would start to take losses.

If the SP goes above 10 they might well take some profits but you can't move the market with a buy and not move it with a sell. No institutional investor will make this level of investment in AIM shares unless they are intending to hold most of it for a while.

And this is almost certainly an II, unless it is NCM trying to get an inexpensive head start on a buyout by picking up some shares at a much lower price than they'll pay later. If that's what's going on, they won't be taking a profit.

But since NCM ADRs moved at the same time, it's got to be an institutional investor taking a stake in both companies simultaneously.