Member Info for TakingMyTime

@Knocky
Mate, if you aren't sleeping it's not worth it.

Stay in, sure, but take some profits and get a good night's sleep for once. Lots of rich people are miserable, why ruin your life trying to get there?

I've sold out of a lot of shares before the peak. You're way beyond what you thought you'd make on this, so take a little bit of it! If you are that nervous you need to de-risk a little by taking some profits. It's no way to lead a life.

Keep enough that you won't hate yourself if it goes to £3, and sell enough that you won't hate yourself if it goes to 3p and never recovers. Life is too short.

@QF obviously you took it in good humour as intended. Surprised others couldn't see it but hey ho.

That "sage advice" on PSN didn't anticipate coronavirus, unfortunately. Still think it's a great place to be, in fact, I topped up on PSN a couple months ago. Didn't quite catch the bottom but happy with the results of that top-up. But not a lot to talk about over there right now. GL

"GGP down to third, must have sold off some shares, wonder why"

Aneka Tambang is now second, their SP has been climbing. Might not have been any transactions, just that the relative SPs changed.

LOL, someone deleted my response to QF. No sense of humour, I guess.

They use plastic and string now?

That should drive the POG higher.

And most of the people supporting this used to call Reagan's policies 'voodoo economics'. The world is a funny place.

Not that they have any choice. They're spitting into a hurricane but at least they're trying to spit.

Agree with WelshF, it would be a nonsense for it to be AUD.

Their tier definitions are here, page 60: https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-10/Briefing_Book_Oct_2019_0.pdf.

Doesn't actually say if it is AUD or USD.

I can. Special relationship. It matters more over there than over here, for some reason I can't really fathom. They actually like us even when so much of our media speaks so poorly of them.

"Look to the bottom right of your post message box"
I'd love to recommend/follow some of the posters on here, but all I see is "Please read our rules before posting" and "Important Message from the Financial Conduct Authority."
@Espadrilles, I'm sort of in a good mood because I finally bought in here myself. Should have done it last week, at least. My problem is that my sense of humour ends up offending people, too. Anyway, thanks for the nice words.

@Goldenl, I should have said I have no hard facts on that. But I do know that every plant / factory will have both fixed and variable costs. For instance, if there's a lease on the land, that's fixed -- really doesn't matter how much ore you process, you pay the same lease. Lighting and security are likely fixed. Some maintenance will be fixed and other variable. And so on.

I don't know anything at all about this to know what things could be fixed and what could be variable at the Telfer processing. I'm assuming Citi knew what they were talking about when they said it would turn Telfer into a Tier 2. If that's the case, then the fixed costs must be quite substantial.

Of course, we don't know (though obviously both NCM and GGP will know) what it is going to cost to get the ore out of the ground and over to Telfer. That's variable. I'm still assuming it is going to be less than the Telfer ore due to the much higher grade.

The other thing is that NCM uses AISC < $800 for Tier 1, and there's been a LOT of chatter about this being Tier 1. If so, that tells us something about their anticipated AISC.

This is my own relatively uninformed thought process. Others more knowledgeable than me may shoot it down. That's why I've put so much detail, so if I'm doing something stupid someone can set me straight.

@schlemiel, it was a joke about politicians and their problems with truth.

Obviously missed the mark, sorry.

@schlemiel "Truth isn't a degree. It is either true or it isn't true."

Just this morning I printed up a letter recommending you as a special advisor to the PM. I've just shredded it.

Two factors will reduce the AISC significantly. The first, as already noted, is that we expect significantly higher grade ore from Hav than from Telfer. So variable costs will be significantly lower.

The second is the fixed costs. Simple explanation: There are some costs that increase as you process more ore, there are others that are just there and will be there, whether you process lots of ore or not very much.

The fixed costs aren't going to increase when you start processing Hav ore. They are going to stay the same -- but now, they will be partly attributed to Hav and partly to Telfer.

I don't know how much is fixed and how much is variable. But I do know that Citi said this was going to change Telfer into a Tier 2. It currently falls short of Tier 2 because the AISC is over $900. So that means they expect the fixed costs attributable to Hav are going to reduce the Telfer AISC by over $300, to below $900. So that suggests the fixed costs are pretty significant.

It also suggests that AISC for Hav is likely to be even lower, because of the higher grade of ore. That will be partly offset by the cost of moving the ore to Telfer but I really doubt that's going to be too substantive.

I expect the AISC for Hav to be below $800 and maybe substantively lower. It was this calculation that finally convinced me to buy here, not just as a flyer, but because I think this greatly derisks the investment and puts it within my investment profile, despite being on AIM.

If POG stays over $1500 and AISC is <$800, then this is a slam dunk, and I think POG is likely to go higher, not lower.

There aren't any AIM 100 trackers, to my knowledge.

It may clear some IIs to invest that couldn't have earlier.

"Logically, with CVD-19 being as rampant over there as swingers are on Saturday nights, the US should be wayyy down the list for airbridges - there's just no US gov't control of the situation."

I'm not so sure about that. CVD deaths here are much higher per capita than in the US. Almost impossible to compare case numbers because of the varying testing policies. And US testing policies vary widely from state to state as well.

"I'm sure some of those big investments were as a result of some knowledge that we are not privy too."

It would be illegal for anyone with the companies to divulge inside information to an institutional investor that hadn't been revealed to the market.

That, of course, does not mean that it hasn't happened. But I'm guessing that the institutional investors have a research department that has looked at pretty much the exact same information that we have available on this board (maybe even by reading this board, can you imagine having that as your job, and having to separate the wheat from yesterday's chaff? LOL).

They can look at all the same info we have and say, 'Looks like an opportunity.'

Which I did today. We've only had my wife's money in here, I bought some at 11.3 today.

Russia has lifted their lockdown. I suspect they are hoping that warmer weather will suppress the virus sufficiently.

Daniel, no one can answer that for you. It depends on so many things. If Haverion turns out to be as good as some people suspect and we get an MRE supporting that, we could blow through 25p before the end of the summer on our way to 50p or more. If it turns out to be no better than we have actually confirmed right now, we might never get to 25p.

DYOR stands for "Do Your Own Research". Since no one knows how much gold is in the ground that GGP owns, there are no certainties. It's all probabilities. You have to evaluate the probabilities yourself.

I think most posters on this board think the ceiling is higher than 25p. But most posters here are probably also somewhat biased. I'm in both categories -- I think it is higher than 25p but I also am somewhat biased. The shares are my wife's and she might lose her nerve before I would but I wouldn't want to sell them below 50p (unless the Board of Directors recommended an offer below that, then I'd follow their advice).

The market as a whole does not think that, though. If they did the price would be a lot higher. If you can only wait a year or two you may not get to that kind of price, though. No telling for sure but the real money might be in the Scallywag and that might take a lot longer than a year or two to materialise.

Not long enough

@Tymers "Takingmytime no disrespect but GGP holders in main do not need to be told the blatantly obvious!!"

No disrespect but it obviously wasn't "blatantly obvious" to the person to whom I was replying. I wasn't writing for GGP holders in main, I was writing for one person who asked a question. If you look at the start of the thread you can see his questions.

And newbie investors who don't know these things should feel free to ask them and should get an answer in layman's terms. Part of the point of a board is to help each other out, isn't it?

Anyway, thanks for the compliment, if it was blatantly obvious then I guess it wasn't wrong!