Member Info for TakingMyTime

Great post, Coach, re: the two paths ahead. There's actually a third -- stay in the joint venture on Hav through the mining stage.

I suspect preferences for the different scenarios cut across both LTH and recent buyers, though.

@notaflipper
ABF closed at 2045 Friday. Year high is 2730. I wouldn't say recovery is fully priced in, not even close.

Also, there's the US expansion of Primark coming. That's a long play, of course, but I expect it to succeed.

Finally, there's what I'll call the "Portland's wife" factor: brand loyalty, and the "buy shares of products / companies you like to use" factor. A lot of retail investors will buy it simply because they know it, and that supports the share, and a lot of people are really wanting to get back to Primark (takes all kinds to make a world, I guess, LOL).

M&S definitely has more upside but, IMO, far more risk. I guess I'm just not persuaded that M&S management has a clue as to what's gone wrong and how to fix it. They certainly do have brand loyalty but even that has weakened some.

@QF, to answer your question:
In the event of a buyout offer for GGP, if GH recommended a sale at 12p, I'd accept it. (I can't see him doing that, of course.) If he opposed a sale at 90p because he didn't think it was fair value, I'd hold. I think at £1 I'd start to become tempted even if he was recommending against the offer.

If there's no buyout offer, I'm holding.

That's based on what I know today. As more data becomes available it is of course subject to revision.

If you are going to hold your shares until you know what is going to happen you will never sell them. There will always be new unknowns. A fair price is a balance between potential upside and potential downside, weighted by the likelihood of each.

@Bellers "Daughters too."

To each his own. But though very high on GGP, am holding onto my daughters for now. ;)

Though if GH were to come calling for one of them I might relent!

You can google "BP dividend" or you can go to the BP website and look for it or you can learn to use dividendmax.com and never have to ask the question again about any share.

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/oil-and-gas-producers/bp/dividends

19 June, may not hit your account until the following Monday.

@Mushroomkid, perhaps some of those small buys have been adding up to big totals. Thinking about the person who puts somewhere between £50 and £300 into GGP every month. Anyone putting £50 a month over the last year would have enough shares to be worth adding to Hydrogen's list.

I also suspect a lot of those are traders moving in and out of the share, trying to make a quick profit without risking too much.

And then there's the big holders topping up when the SP drops a little.

@Portland
GGP depends on the size of Haverion. I think it is huge -- they've kept moving the drilling out further. That's based on Paddy's sat spying. The drilling has gone out further than has yet been formally announced.

The NCM hookup significantly derisks it.

Re: BT, I made a decision some years ago that due to the competition situation it was either going to be a mess or so complex to understand that I didn't want to take the time. I've kept my focus elsewhere. I have no opinion.

You asked about high or medium risk, I wouldn't put pharma in that category. If I were in, I'd be holding. I don't think it's a great time to get in now.

@Smart, thanks for the tip on Lookers.

Portland, you could go mining. If you want high risk, EVR. Russian oligarch controlled and as is typical with such, pays very high dividends when profitable.

Can't believe I'm saying this but I don't consider GGP to be high risk anymore. Never thought I'd say that about an AIM mining share, but they've hit the mother lode and the market doesn't really seem to have figured it out. I could be wrong, DYOR, and then DYOR some more.

With current oil price volatility, you could always go BP or Shell, there's some risk there. I think both seriously underpriced, like IAG, but in the short term they obviously could drop again if we have a second wave of C-19.

I think at current prices ABF (Primark owner) is very, very low risk -- it's going up. Maybe not as much as IAG. C-19 has eliminated some of their competitors, shoppers want to get out into shops (they've been able to sit at home on their computers, a lot of people want to get in shops and see/touch stuff), and people who have been hurt financially are going to be looking for inexpensive clothes -- Primark again.

Another company that got hit by C-19 pretty badly but might have a really nice recovery is Compass Group. I do see some risk there.

I'm big on housebuilders. Doesn't matter what happens, there's still a housing shortage. I'm heavy in PSN -- loads of cash and strong land bank to see them through tough times, also enough cash if other builders go to the wall or land gets cheap to take advantage of opportunities. This may drop in the short term due to no-deal Brexit fears but I wouldn't count on that, and I think it is still underpriced today and so not high risk. Even if it does drop, that's just sentiment -- the fundamentals are strong and the build-quality / customer service issues are getting resolved.

Giving serious consideration to Homeserve right now. Not sure it's high or medium risk, though, but I think significant upside.

Really getting itchy fingers on both TPK and RHIM right now, but haven't quite pulled the trigger to buy them. TPK is similar to IAG/BP/others, price is way off highs but they are going to be making money, and it will rebound. Buying opportunity. RHIM seems more risky but also a great opportunity. It's just that there are so many opportunities....

Good luck, have fun. That's just a few suggestions. No idea if any of them will make as much money for you as IAG, but I'm not an "all eggs in one basket" person.

To me, NCM is a good investment even if Hav "disappoints" and we only get 15-20p out of GGP.

I wouldn't put money into GGP that it would really hurt to lose. I would put some of that in NCM.

Thought about Barrick but didn't like the political risk of where some of their mines are located. NCM feels very safe to me.

@Daveri007
Yes, I'm in NCM, too. Invested about the same amount there as we have in GGP. Think gold is well underpriced, and I think NCM is as well. Bought in the day before the broker note and still trying to decide whether to claim to be brilliant or to honestly admit I'm lucky sometimes. I prefer the former if my conscience would just shut up.

This might be him: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-askins-2a52663a/

@Bellers "This will get very interesting when institutions want in. If we hold 45% and Gh and CB own their share then the price will rocket on next to no volume once the big lads pile in."

We already saw that last Friday. They invested a total of approx £2 million, took out the shorters and blew through resistance. What happens if it's £3 million? £5 million?

Another reason not to trust the charts as a predictor of where we're going. With this share, all it takes is one fund manager to say, "Buy some of that," and you have a wave that can't be charted until after it hits its high-water mark, which will be determined largely by what he means by "some".

Those are PI investors investing through those institutions, including most who have listed their shares here today. With HL? Your shares are included in the HL nominee account.

The other approx. 50%?
1. The few IIs we know about.
2. Perhaps some other IIs with small holdings right now, but nobody with more than 3% or we'd know about it.
3. Mostly probably other PIs who haven't responded yet, don't want to, have a life and don't read this forum on Saturdays, or more likely, don't read this forum at all.

A high percentage of PIs will follow the recommendation of the BOD. I doubt a hostile takeover could succeed.

"What would be classed as a low ball offer, 20/30or 40p or more ?"
If Hav is 70 moz, Mickey's a deramper at 74p, LOL.

Very risky to put money that you can't afford to lose into shares. If it's making you that nervous, it's good you got out.

Keep some reserve free in case of emergencies but you might put some if it into 6 months bonds and get a little better interest than 0.01%.

Don't forget you should still be getting a dividend! Good luck.

to post nothing long whilst this tally is ongoing.

"Charts are ALWAYS useful without fail.

They show the truth of real price and not wishes (companies or shareholders)!"
Useful for saying what was, and useful for saying what is, but not at all useful in these circumstances for saying what will be. For reasons already stated.

Charts are unlikely to be useful with
1. an RNS likely to drop anytime in this coming week, or maybe the following week.
2. institutional investors starting to take notice.

If the RNS is bad, the price will drop through support. If it is quite good, it likely blows through resistance. And it can happen any day. And we saw what happened a week ago when an II starts to put money in.

It's not the time to be messing around with charts. If you believe in the company, buy in and stay in, at least until the news comes through. If you don't, best get out quickly. This share is likely to move.

I agree with his conclusion. But anyone who bases anything on price/earnings right now is crazy. No one has any idea what earnings are going to be. Very few companies have been stable in that regard, and airlines probably less so than anything else.

We're not in normal times. That's why we've got the buying opportunity we still have. But it also means that metrics like P/E are useless.

@SoS, very good post.