Member Info for TakingMyTime

Your guess is as good as mine. My guess, if there's a dividend, it will be small. It will return to more normal levels once the company is making profit. No idea what the SP will do.

Primark not open, and when it is open it will be limited. Unlikely to move much until Primark gets rolling again.

So PSN didn't furlough their workers but paid their staff and contractors. Even our resident nutter can't claim they were bailed out, they've taken nothing.

By rights, they could have furloughed people. But this company (and somewhat legitimately based on past stupidity) has not had a great reputation for being a responsible corporate citizen. They've been looking to rebuild that reputation and this is a good move, by my thinking.

@Otto, ABF may take a while. Even when Primark opens it will be with limited # of customers in the store. Well-managed company with good reserves, though. I'm holding it for the long term, but I'm not counting on the SP to recover quickly. Could be wrong, of course, by the autumn this could all be in the past and the economy could be rolling.

"CEO says it'll take SEVERAL YEARS to recover from this event - and that's assuming they don't go under first."

Yes, so it may take SEVERAL YEARS for the share price to get back to where it was before this event.

Triple my money over several years? Sure, that works.

I have a small stake in TW. My main housebuilder is PSN, I have a larger stake there. I like their cash and land bank, seems to me they are well-positioned. Also, they aren't in the southeast, and if we have a recession, expect house prices in the southeast to hurt.

But there's still a housing shortage, and PSN is well-placed to profit. I'd encourage anyone thinking about housebuilders to give them a look. They also seem to "get it" as far as needing to sort out their build quality and governance issues, they seem to have come a long way.

"Hi mate, I was just wondering what the rest of us are meant to learn from what you just said?"

Loads of comments on here that provide nothing for anyone to learn. But in regard to the one you asked about, I was just being polite in response to this: "And a question for all investors: Does that make any difference to your investment choice in BP?" I quoted that question in my comment, so I thought it was obvious.

"And a question for all investors: Does that make any difference to your investment choice in BP?

If the SP does drop below £3, along with me, who is increasing their holding?"
This dividend, and the current SP, makes no difference to me.

No, I won't be buying more. I've already topped up, I'm happy with my mix of investments right now, don't want to reduce my cash further. Even if it drops even lower, I'm already, if anything, a little heavier on oil than I'd like to be. Buying opportunity has been too good to pass up but I'm done now.

"Ggp is not a long term investment for me cos will probably be bought out by Newcrest in next 6 months (for at least double current price)."
Off-topic, but told my better half about our discussions and she decided to take a flyer on GGP, more for the fun of it than anything. So if you're right we won't totally miss out on it.

Stay well!

"Is a dividend possibility priced into this SP?"
Some think the dividend will be maintained. Some think it will be cut. Some think there will be no dividend.

No one knows. So all of those possibilities are priced into the current SP.

Here's another thing to consider. Some in the market think the dividend should not be paid, and that it will hurt BP if it is paid. So they might sell if there is a dividend, and might buy if it isn't paid.

So the direction of the SP might be counter-intuitive.

I personally would rather see them chop this dividend. If there are spare funds available, I'm guessing there are some assets, especially in US shale, that may be coming available soon at incredible prices. So I'd rather see BP not pay a dividend right now, and keep the cash handy. If no appealing acquisitions pop up, pay a special or increase dividends later.

My opinion, FWIW.

The problem is that if Trump sneezes and decides to tweet about it your charts go out the window.

Or if there's a big new outbreak in China (and they don't manage to suppress the news), Monday will be full-blown panic and your charts mean nothing.

Or, word gets out that Kim Jong Un has died of coronavirus, the entire market could shoot up in hopes that Korean troubles could disappear, or down in fears of more spread of the virus.

Too many macro events in too many places driving sentiment to be able to use the charts these days. It's not normal times. Resistance and support matter in normal times, though they get broken all the time, of course, but right now it takes nothing to blow through them.

Thanks, Nige. Low cancellations is no surprise to me.

If we thought there was a housing shortage before, what's it going to be with the builders all having been shut down for a while? That many fewer houses available.

Sure, there will be those who lost their job and can't go through with the buy, but anyone who can make it happen is likely to do so. And IMO PSN, since they target the lower end of the new build market, will not be hurt as much as those building expensive houses in the south east.

All only my opinion, but that's how I read it.

Stay well!

I expect a brutal trading update. I do think most of the gloomy news is priced in, but I also think the shorters love this share, and if the update is as bad as I expect they might pile in and drive the price lower temporarily. Can only last so long, though -- this company is not going out of business, the cycle will turn, and when it does, the high dividends will roll. The shorters know that and will take their profits quickly and close out those short positions.

No guarantees when the world comes out of lockdown, but once it does, I expect this to go.

@wheremymoneygone I agree, I think it's a great stock at a great price, too.

@tacet, LOL. If the only problem is the length of my screen name, on PSN and some other boards they just use TMT. No complaints here!

Good luck all and keep well!

August last year didn't make sense. Price was artificially depressed then by fears over political turmoil, Brexit uncertainties, etc. That's why the price is higher now, because the price back then was way too low. Now, we have fears over coronavirus and its medium to long term impact, but we don't have fears over Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM, years of hung parliament, and years of political fighting over Brexit.

We still have some Brexit uncertainty but it's going to be resolved one way or another within a year, and the economy and the markets will adjust. It's not even uncertainty that kills value and business, it's prolonged uncertainty.

All that stuff was going on last August and for various reasons it scared people off of housebuilders.

@Nige, you're probably right about short- and medium-term. I keep forgetting when I post on PSN that not everyone is in for the long term like I am. Thanks for adding that perspective.

Re: ggp, I've decided it doesn't fit in my risk profile. Perhaps an odd thing to say for someone holding EVR. :) Glad it's done so well for you and others. If I'd bought it when you guys first tipped it I could retire now.

Stay well!

Bretton Woods has been literally dead since before it started since it agreed a gold standard which was immediately thrown off. It's been fiat currency for more than half a century. BW continues to exist only to the extent people want to pretend it's there.

None of that is new. It's been that way since it came into existence. If you are saying that you think the pretence will stop, well, maybe if Trump is reelected. The European powers-that-be specialise in pretending that internationalist things that aren't true (and haven't been for a long time) are still true. Trump specialises in pretending the things that he wants to change are certainly going to happen, but he doesn't seem to care much about propping up historical internationalist fictions. So maybe he'll force others to stop pretending. Wouldn't bet on that one, though.

Sorry you don't like my screen name. Weird thing to say, IMO, but whatever. I do my research and I have a long investment horizon. Means I miss some opportunities, no doubt. But I'd rather take my time and be confident I'm getting it right, or at least (when I take big risks, as I do sometimes) that I really think I've got a good handle on the risk-reward ratio and think it fits well within my portfolio. To each his own.

Several builders are restarting their building ops, expected that PSN will soon follow.

"The point is that we are going through a complete break up of the current financial system set in Bretton-Woods (1945) & Jamaica (1971) and dismantling US$."

Cable is closer to 1.20 than 1.30 and nowhere near 1.50. Euro is well under $1.10. USD/JPY is under 110. If this is dismantling USD, I'd hate to see what happens when it strengthens.

As much as people hate Trump, and sometimes with justification, everyone knows that he's likely to have the US economy rolling before the European economies. Europe's politicians are afraid of media criticism if too many people die. Trump views media criticism as helping his reelection chances, and eggs them on. He's already pushing for restrictions to lift in most places. So the US economy is likely to roll before any European economy will, and investors know that and are buying US. I already did, FWIW.

I expect major upheaval in the monetary system but I don't expect the almighty dollar to lose its position. Not yet. It's position is no doubt stronger than merited but the world is an uncertain place and when uncertainty hits, people buy dollars. That's not going to end just when there's more uncertainty. The dollar will lose its position in times of stability and wealth. The big players who drive it aren't going to take that kind of risk right now.

'but.... the situation is unique and thus favors "quick profit" scalping.'

No doubt. But if I were playing that game I'd be nervous that A) they cancel the div and the price drops and B) the virus takes off in some of the places that are lifting lockdowns, scaring everyone else into keeping their lockdown.

If those two things happen the quick profit scalping might take more than a year to recover. If someone wants to play it that way they have to accept that risk.

I'd probably take that risk if I wanted to play that game, seems like an opportunity indeed. But the risks are there.

But for me, looking at the longer view, this seems like pretty much a one-way bet. The risks are almost nil for the long view. Sometime within the next five years, this share is going to be over £5, and is going to have paid some nice dividends along the way.

"Penny off 300p. Who expected that with all the doom and gloom about concerning this share?"
Difference between day trading and buy-and-hold investing.

Anyone who wanted to turn a quick profit has to be concerned about the risks. Anyone who is looking at a long term hold expects the lockdown to end, people to start going back to work again, driving again, and the oil price to rise. Even if we think this dividend might be cancelled, we expect dividends to start again before long and a share price recovery as well, there's both income and capital gains to be made here for anyone willing to wait. Great buying opportunity if you are willing to leave your money in it for a while.

If the div is cancelled and the price drops I'll buy even more.