Member Info for TakingMyTime

I don't think they want to drop out of the FTSE 100, and a big cut just might do that. I think they'll find a way to make a significant dividend even if they have to delay some CapEx to do it. I wouldn't be surprised if it is smaller than last years but I don't expect a huge cut. That is a completely uninformed guess based on almost nothing, but since you asked what we think....

Showed up this weekend. On all the charts, if you click on them within the tweet you get a better view.

https://twitter.com/CapitalPmh/status/1228986729023053824?s=20

https://twitter.com/CapitalPmh/status/1228986729023053824

https://twitter.com/CapitalPmh/status/1228986546461839361 (this one shows why I'm not as concerned as strictly is about price/book, because ROE is comparable.)

Helpful side by side comparisons of various metrics, for anyone thinking of investing in a housebuilder and deciding where to buy.

Well, well. Since he posted right after OWLS did, I checked to see if he was a little more succinct, and I see I'm the target. So I'll just try again.

First, exstatex, I'm very sorry you've had to sell your wedding ring. I highly recommend you stop nursing grievances (the world has always been a place where injustice happens) and spend less time on forums and try to find a way to upgrade your circumstances. There are things you can do to better your situation. If you can't see what they might be, please try the Citizens Advice Bureau and other local community organisations. Spend less time thinking about being a victim and more time trying to change it and overcome your circumstances. Many people have done so, including in situations worse than yours.

On to other matters.

"Facts as we know them.
Landlords and crown estate were 90% rescued by austerity"

I asked for this before. You state this as fact. Previously, you stated it as a "bailout." Banks were bailed out, agreed. When were landlords bailed out? Where does the 90% come from? If you want us to accept it as "fact" you need to prove it, not merely assert it. There is no reason that anyone should just take your word or mine for anything. Back up your "facts" or expect us to not believe you. You've not bothered to do so.

PSN isn't even really a landlord. They own some land but they are using it to build houses. FWIW.

"Failed to invest their crooked windfall in the diverse economy which saved them and which they reward with abuse"

PSN is returning hundreds of millions to their shareholders which is being invested in the diverse economy in various ways. That's a fact. Oh, sure, they paid stupid bonuses, too. Do you know how much Persimmon paid in employer national insurance on those bonuses? Do you know how much the recipients paid in national insurance and income tax on those bonuses? Perhaps more than you think WAS returned. Unless you've done the research to find out you have absolutely no credibility. I could tell you but you wouldn't believe me.

If you want PSN to "pay back" you can't just wave your hands and say "90%". 90% of what? Of the value back then or the value now? Where does 90% come from? Does the company get any credit in your world for having paid Corporation Tax on its profits? For having paid National Insurance on everything it pays its employees? For the tax those employees have paid? For the jobs it has created for its suppliers? Or is it supposed to be 90% on top of everything they've already paid, and if so, why is that fair? Just because you are mad at them?

Just for once, try to be specific and actually provide some evidence to back your claims and we could actually have a conversation....

Nige understands the industry more than I do, has followed it longer, perhaps he'll be able to explain May.

I tried to interact with the gentleman and make sense of what he was saying. When I pointed out that he hadn't actually provided any proof of his allegations, and that some simply didn't add up with actual facts, and asked him to explain what he meant, it turned to personal attacks. But feel free to try, maybe you'll have more success in connecting with him than I did.

@pastyc, might want to consider housebuilders. Always makes sense to invest in companies that make things of which there is a shortage. I didn't see you mention that sector and there's dividends to be had if you are looking for income investing, as well. I'm in PSN and it's been flying ever since the Boris bounce.

Should also mention, Fira, if you get tired of reading someone's rants, you can use the filter tab to block them. I think everyone who participates regularly on this board probably does so. You'll see there's a filtered comment but won't actually see the comment itself. If you're the type who is entertained by reading such things occasionally you can always turn off filtering to see them.

I'm not sure why the moderators allow it, he never actually says anything constructive and spouts absolute lies sometimes. If he had a point in any of it, it's obscured by some of his demonstrably false statements.

"FinRes should be closely in line with PreFins so should not affect Sp much. FinRes will include a prospects section (threats and achievements) which will hopefully detail quality improvements that could boost Sp."

The big wild card here is what they say about further returns to shareholders. We have had a nice run on really high dividends. The capital return plan currently says 235p this year and 110p next year. Will they expand on that to add another 125p next year and another 110p the following year? If so, the share will probably rise. If they don't add to it at all, it may drop. If they say they would like to add to it and have the funds but don't want to commit until they see if the coronavirus hits the economy sufficiently to hit house prices, that's probably neutral.

If they promise another 100p next year (rather than another 125p), that might be neutral, too.

Basically, if the cash is going to keep rolling out to us, the price will probably increase. If it is going to stop or considerably slow down, we might get hit on the share price.

In my view there's sufficient cash in the company to distribute more. I don't mind if it slows down a little bit, though.

I think the other key at FinRes time is what is said about build quality / customer satisfaction. If they can give us something substantive, rather than empty words, to show this is moving in the right direction, that will be a win. I do expect that to be the case, I think they get it and are working to sort it.

I think May might be a dangerous time to be heavily invested, not only because of the history of housebuilders but because I think the market may be starting to panic about no-deal about that time. EU deals never happen until near the last minute, so there won't be one in May, and the mid-year deadline for an extension will be approaching, so panic will build. Because that's how the press behaves and that's how the market behaves.

IMO, this is a very good addition to the board.

"and as the saying goes no- one ever made money by overestimating the intelligence of the public."

Indeed. But there's another factor, and that is in a charitable role I have contact with a lot of lower income people. There are a lot of people who simply have a difficult time coming up with the funds to buy higher quality items. Even if they know it is better, they lack either the resources or the self-control to put themselves in a position to do that. It's not necessarily lack of intelligence, it's other problems, unfortunately. Those people will always want a Primark-type source.

I also think pensioners don't tend to put tremendous wear and tear on their clothes and for many, the cheaper option might be better. So an aging population may keep Primark profitable longer than we might think.

I think you are correct that the UK expansion prospects are limited. I think there's decades worth of room for expansion in Europe and the US, however. In the US, Walmart is already in that space to an extent, so it may not go as well there as here, but I still think it will succeed -- Asda hasn't put a squeeze on Primark here, particularly.

I'm interested in Renewi. I'm not in yet but I think you might be on to a winner there. I don't think they are mutually exclusive investments in any respect.

"I think HMG are going to 'use' pollution as the excuse to price the majority of motorists off the road, and, instead, once 5g covers the whole, UK, hence the 'rush' to get it out there, to instead force the masses into using driverless electric taxis."
The brilliance of this is the masses then will have difficulty assembling for any kind of protest when HMG starts restricting liberties. Those who do will easily be tracked, and can be dealt with on arrival or later, as best fits the powers that be. Unsavoury political movements, as deemed by HMG, can easily be traced and spied on, and exemplary prosecutions and imprisonments will be easy.

Make people dependent for transport and you give government immense power. Some demagogue, some day, will get into power and then use that immense power to squelch opponents.

"Go and protest in the countries such as China, India, USA etc where the real pollution is coming from."
US emissions per capita are high but at least they've been decreasing marginally since 2007. Canada's are the same but have been increasing. Luxembourg's are higher, which has to be a little embarrassing to the EU. So are Australia's. America is the whipping boy primarily because of their attitude (which pre-dates Trump, and only changed briefly during Obama's term) to international conventions. But they've been decreasing emissions just like the EU has. China and India are on an upward trend. Russia, another big polluter, is fairly stable on per capita emissions.

In case anyone cares....

New builds are far more energy-efficient than their predecessors. Could this be improved? Perhaps. But short of euthanising hundreds of thousands of people, we need more houses, and it's more environmentally sound to house people in new builds than in old buildings lacking insulation and with single-glazed windows.

"Cannot understand why you did not take a position when it was 350p"

He did take a position. His chart told him to take a short position, and to talk the share down.

I was so close to doing that. Wish I had. A great opportunity for profit taking if you want it, but I really think once the scare blows over this has a lot more gains in it.

Ever heard of debt? The UK, Europe, and the US are swimming in it, individuals, corporations, local authorities, and central governments. Loads of lovely (NOT) debt.

That catches up with people, and when it does, they will be looking for lower cost items, even if the quality is lower. Clothing is an essential, and if you are trying to make benefits, meager savings, or low pension income go further, you look for inexpensive clothing. Even if the cool kids ranting about climate change don't like it -- if you don't have the money for something cheaper, you don't have it.

Aging population, too, more and more pensioners on fixed incomes trying to stretch them.

I agree that the current climate change rage is detrimental for ABF. But there's other dynamics at play that, IMO, outweigh that. Your view may differ and that's fine. If you are right, I'll lose money, if I am right you've passed on an opportunity. We'll find out in the coming years.

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/investors/bp-financial-calendar-2020.pdf

Shows relevant dates.

No guarantee it will drop that much after ex-div. The market knows the div is coming, with the kind of market liquidity there is in BP, the price will generally drop exactly the amount of the dividend. But then, the market moves up or down because the market moves up or down, or some broker sneezes and people buy or sale. So it won't drop exactly the dividend amount because other stuff affects the share price. But no one knows exactly how.

In my view, pretty safe. I actually think we're underpriced, too, so you might get some capital appreciation along the way.

Dividend cover is 1.45, that's not too bad. I don't really like less than 1.5, but it's close to that. Long term, the gearing should be getting lower. I don't expect much if any dividend increases for a year or so, though many people do. But I think the current level is pretty safe.

Thanks, Tom, I've already added it to my "Possible buys" watchlist that gives me updated prices and company news.

When I retire, if I have nothing better to do I'll try to research enough shares in advance and in detail that I may be able to try to time the market, like Nige does. No way that's possible for me right now.

Thanks, Tom, didn't get in yet. Hope to research it over the weekend. I generally can't move that quickly on something unless I've already researched the company.

Sounds like what's driving nano right now is not the financials or performance but the possibility of a takeover. If so, that probably doesn't fit the profile of how I invest -- there's no way for me to measure the likelihood of the takeover or the likely return if it happens. I like to weigh up risk/return possibilities before buying. So this one probably isn't for me, even if I end up leaving money on the table. She who must be obeyed would say it is just gambling. But I'll look at it over the weekend.

Thanks Tom. Will check it out!