Member Info for TakingMyTime

Anyone who wants to can read his book on Churchill. Churchill is his hero, and his book explains what he thought of Churchill's actions. He's just reprising his view of Churchill. If you want to invest in this market, given the power he has, you might take the time to get inside his head, understand what he's thinking and why, and then you'll understand, and mostly be able to predict, his actions.

Churchill wasn't an isolationist, he was an internationalist, but on his terms. He wanted good relations with Europe but closer relations with the US. That's what Bojo is going for.

This provision is something he'll have the power to overturn, if he really needs to, but he doesn't want to faff around, he wants a deal to get done on both fronts. He's going to use US negotiations to strengthen his hand with the EU and vice versa. But if the EU is delaying and counting on an extension, he can't use that as a counterbalance to his US negotiations. He wants to walk back and forth from one room to another and say, 'This is what they've offered me, can you do better?' He wants to close a deal, ideally with both.

And he can't delay on both deals because Trump might not win, and Trump desperately wants (needs?) a deal, but a Democrat might not be quite so ready to deal.

And he'll play hardball right up to the point that he gets what he thinks he needs out of a deal, and then he'll agree.

That's the game he's playing, and the no extension provision is part of it. Whether he'll pull it off or not, I don't know, but I wouldn't bet against it. He's no fool, never has been. He's played a risky hand but so far he's been winning. I don't have to like him or agree with him to see what he's doing, but I do have to understand him if I don't want to mess up the investment opportunities he creates.

Feeling pretty good about PSN holding AND my prediction about it earlier. :) I said if the Tories get a majority it would go up by 10-20% -- didn't expect it all in one day!

"Hi sahid
No of buys always = no of sells. Can't buy anything if not for sale. All No of buys / sells means is that it goes thru as a sell if seller got his sell price or buy if buyer got his buy price. Not worth watching.
BoL"
This. But I'll add, sahid, that I think you have it reversed. It is because the price is so high that there are so many transactions. A lot of people who bought lower, when the price shot up, have taken advantage of it to lock in some of their profits. Some of those people are just waiting for it to drop to 1990 or so and then will buy back in again. It's not that they don't necessarily believe in the company, but maybe they have tax reasons for wanting to go ahead and take a capital gain now.

@caveman, Nige. I still don't think the market loves Brexit, especially since there's still not a trade deal, but a huge dose of uncertainty has been removed. Ultimately, a trade deal will happen because it is in everyone's interest to do so, and money talks. It may be quick or it may take a while. Personally, if I were pulling the strings, I would refuse to extend to concentrate the minds and get it done. Trade deals are not rocket science, and they only take forever if people can afford to stall around and hold out for the very best deal. I'd use the deadline to force getting it done, even if it means giving up more than I want to -- it is better to give up a little and get a deal done, and get the uncertainty out of the way, than to faff around.

Anyway, like you Nige, I expect more up and down until the trade deal is sorted. But I do expect it to be sorted, and not to take years, either, and I think we'll see another leap in share prices when it is sorted. So, like you Caveman, I'm holding. I don't think we've hit a top.

I expect the increase in the NI threshold to add a few quid to some pockets but not really change the affordability picture. I expect stamp duty changes to make a difference, if they come through. And, if Boris keeps even a third of his leadership campaign promise and bumps up the higher rate band to £60K, that will significantly boost affordability for a lot of people, which will help housebuilders.

But the biggest thing is that everyone who was afraid to invest in Britain because of Corbyn will feel free to do so. That means more jobs and more income flowing into the economy. Probably doesn't mean a lot more housebuying in 2020 but it could really boost things in 2021.

LOL. Let's get back to 400p first! But we may have turned the corner. The nice thing here is the pound strengthened and the SP still is going up, the impact of an increasing pound is swamped by other considerations.

Well, I was betting this would go up with the political situation sorted out. Have to decide now whether to hold for longer term, or at what point it is time to take profits. I still think there's more to gain on it.

"I see no logical reason for such a rise.... how is TW worth 15% more today than yesterday?"

1. The threat of Corbyn is removed.
2. The majority is large enough that Johnson should be able to implement a smooth Brexit without domestic trouble, which is positive for housebuilders. Obviously he still has to reach a trade deal with the EU but he's got a strengthened hand for that, too.
3. The majority is large enough that Johnson should be able to get trade deals with others, including America, without significant domestic political problems.
4. There's a possibility of stamp duty cuts and other tax cuts which would be positive for builders.
5. The whole market is up because of the possibility that the US/China trade war is ending or at least settling.

Lots of reasons for the surge in share price. None of them alone can explain the increase but when you add it all up, it starts to make sense. If you don't believe it, sell now and take profits before it drops. But lots of us have been saying this share and other housebuilders are significantly undervalued, in large part due to negative sentiment rather than actual valuation. The negative sentiment just got ratcheted way down. Personally, I think we're still undervalued.

Hi, Gavster. Of course, predicting US politics is a dangerous game to play. But for investing in any company with international concerns, I try to keep an eye on the politics of the nations involved and think through how it could impact the company.

In this case, it's not just the US but Russia and China as well. Chinese politics can be somewhat inscrutable but I still think it is useful, for instance, to try to think through how the Hong Kong situation might affect Chinese behaviour in the trade war. Does it make them more likely to do a deal to be seen as responsible international citizens who have to deal with an intransigent group of protestors? Or does it make them more likely to hold a hard line on the trade deal to prove how tough they are, for internal consumption?

Obviously, the answer has ramifications for EVR. In buying it, I had to be prepared to ride out the trade war for several years, on the chance they do the latter.

I also considered French and German politics before buying heavily into another sector, UK housebuilding. In my view, the German political weakness and Macron's troubles with the protestors convinced me that the EU needed a deal as much or more than the UK did, and thus that a deal would happen. And I was convinced that the UK would not go Corbynista, and so we'd have a relatively business friendly government with a deal with the EU, and thus housebuilders were significantly underpriced. So far, the first half of the deal has come through, the polls indicate the election probably will as well, and I expect (for the same reasons) a trade deal to be completed relatively quickly. I expect housebuilders to surge after the election if we get a Tory majority, and even more so once a trade deal is done. But I was in light before, and I only went in heavy because I was convinced by my reading of European politics.

FWIW. There are many things that can affect company performance and share prices, I manage to think about a few of them and there's a lot more I don't know.

Gavster, don't count on Trump being removed from office. It takes 2/3 of the Senate. The Senate is Republican majority, and not one Republican in either house has broken ranks and said they'll vote for impeachment. Trump's approval is above 50%. He's accused of doing the same thing Biden publicly acknowledged doing, so the Republicans have lots of cover to stick by him as long as his approval ratings stay reasonable. He'd have to lose his support rapidly for this impeachment to come to anything, and the latest jobs report shows the American economy is still doing pretty well.

I think it would be a big mistake to make investment decisions based on impeachment. Even if he is removed, I'm not sure Vice President Pence will do anything different. To change this administration will require an election.

DYOR obviously, but that's my view of it.

Hi, Gavster. You are correct that the S.A. tariffs would help Evraz, but the impact of that is minor. What the tariffs did was stir fears that Trump can't/won't work with anyone and so there isn't going to be a China deal. That, combined with his statements about China was enough. It really is all about the Sino-US spat, and whether it is going to get better or worse. I suspect that this came about because the sentiment swung, in one day, from "some kind of deal is probably coming, even if just enough to stop things getting worse" all the way to "things are probably going to get worse." It jumped clear over the middle ground of "who knows what will happen" in a single day.

I'm still in the "who knows" category. Trump has made statements before that sounded like he wasn't agreeing with someone, only to turn around and make that agreement. His strategy when trying to extract one last concession is to make it appear that he's going to be walking away. He's volatile and unpredictable, but that's intentional, I think.

If the trade dispute situation gets worse, this will drop further before it recovers, even if the company keeps making money, just due to sentiment. If it improves, this will go up even if the company doesn't make significantly more money. To an extent, in deciding to hold this for the medium to long-term, I'm betting on trade resolution. I expect that if Trump thinks he needs a deal to be reelected he'll find a way to make it happen.

If not, it won't happen until after the election. The Chinese will want to avoid concessions in the hopes that Trump's political needs will force him to concede, or that he'll lose the election and they'll get a friendlier President to work with. If Trump loses, whoever is President will do a deal. If he wins, he'll be in a stronger position and the Chinese will recognise it and do a deal. Could happen sooner, I guess, if the polls show that Trump is winning and the Chinese don't want to wait.

This will always be a bumpy ride share. It is even more so with the trade dispute on.

If a director, it should be disclosed, hasn't been yet that I can see.

Oh, dear, it's going up today. If only he'd closed out his short position yesterday rather than waiting for the 2s. Well, maybe he'll have another chance before we drive higher again.

Part of it is the pound. Oil is quoted in dollars, and the pound has been trending up which means the dollars convert to fewer pounds. That's a small factor.

Mainly, the markets are spooked because of US sanctions on Brazil and Argentina and the latest statement from Trump on China. so people are afraid of what comes next. As if anyone can predict what Trump will do next. But trade wars are bad for the economy, and economic slowdown is bad for the price of oil, so bad for the BP share price.

At the very least the 350 floor has held and things are stabilised in the short term. On the broader outlook, yes, I think we're headed back up before long. The company is still going to make money, and pay dividends, with rising coal and steel prices. Absolutely no clue what Trump and China will cook up, but if they do a deal this will go up fast.

Would have to drop another 20% to the 280 range for the FTSE100 place to be under threat.

@johnson, yes, probably all builders. I think the market likes PSN's margin better -- it probably means the high dividends will last longer with PSN. Remember the surge when Johnson's deal was announced? All builders shot up but PSN led the way by a considerable margin. I think there are a lot of people just waiting to jump in on PSN if Brexit is resolved satisfactorily.

@Nige, re quality, that case you cited was obviously a disaster, but their overall ratings have improved substantially. I never expected all the problems to be sorted immediately, if you've had some cowboys working for you its going to take some time to flush that out of the system.

Re: Brexit, what we really need is to have it sorted one way or another. I am of the view that no option is disastrous, that British economy is resilient to whatever. Also believe that an election was necessary, since majority of Parliament was elected on respecting the referendum and then didn't do so. Lib Dems, SNP, PC were true to their manifesto but Labour and many of the Tories were not. Had to have an election where people would say what they were really going to do and let the electorate decide.

Hoping for either a clear Remain or clear Brexit outcome. Could live with either. Just so it gets resolved.

Or the beginning of a reversal with people realising it is oversold?

If the Tories get a majority we'll have a Brexit deal and this will go up by 10-20%, maybe more.

The only truly bad outcomes for this share would be a Labour majority (Corbyn would start confiscating stuff everywhere, everyone loses) or a hung parliament with a Brexit/Conservative coalition. Even then, I suspect enough Labour and Lib Dems would vote for Johnson's deal rather than let the Brexit party force a no-deal.

Would be interested to hear why. Profit growth despite the decline in L4L at Primark, which we knew about, the bottom falling out of the sugar market this year, and the historically low pound. This coming year's sugar results should be at least marginally better than this year, and the pound is also likely to be stronger over the course of this year than it was last year.

What specifically concerned you about the results? The market seems happy with them this morning.

If the political situation straightens out and the pound strengthens, this will go well, I think.

L4L at Primark down 2% being blamed on local issues in Germany, new local mgmt in place. Will see how that goes.

I see no reason to sell this, might add in coming days.