Member Info for TakingMyTime

"True, I wonder why Ski dont take out a massive short position"
He's too busy reading his chart and trolling.

Actually, I think he's reading his chart and deciding to take a short position, then coming here to try to talk the share down to get readers here to sell and drive the price lower. That's why he's never here on up days, his chart is telling him it's a buy those days.

"Excuse the ignorant question but how does a company pay a dividend in excess of its profits?"
It pays them out of profits it earned in a prior period and had retained. No sane company will pay out all of its profits every year. They will keep some in reserve, for CapEx, for unexpected expenses, to maintain future dividends, to provisionally reduce debt in future if it isn't needed for some of those other expenses.

Most companies don't want to pay very high dividends one year and none the next, so they'll hold enough in reserve that they can pay something the following year. Eventually, if profit repeatedly falls below the dividend level, dividends will have to be reduced, once reserves are exhausted.

We just got an 8% dividend, with more supposed to come later in the year. That's an incredibly high dividend compared to the rest of the FTSE100. Essentially the market is betting, with the share price, that the dividend is not sustainable and that EVR will have to cut the dividend soon. I won't be surprised if that happens.

But I'm convinced that over the long term / over the life of the economic cycle that EVR is going to be profitable. And Russian mining companies typically pay out a very high percentage of their earnings in dividends. EVR is actually better than most of their peers in that regard, they've been bringing the debt down. Ideally I'd prefer to see it come down a little faster and the div be a little less, but I can live with it.

"If we look at Thomas Cook, we see the shareprice collapsed at roughly the same speed as EVR, plunging -60%."
If we look at Thomas Cook we see that they were actually losing money. EVR has remained profitable even when steel prices were in a down-turn, which to be honest is pretty impressive. Cyclical shares like this often lose money in a down-turn and then make loads in good times.

I don't know if you are actually an investor or just a troll, but if you ever think about actually being an investor, here's a truth that can help you. Share prices don't determine the future of a company. At best, they tell us what investors are guessing is the future of the company, and a lot of investors aren't even deciding based on that, they are guessing as to how they think the share price will move over the next day or week or month.

Here's another truth for you. In some market conditions and with some shares, charts are worthless. This is one of them. This will always be a volatile share because of the nature of the business and the nature of the company. Too many people who own this share don't understand the company or its business or aren't long-term investors, so it bounces like crazy. It always will. Yesterday's price movements are never indicative. You told us ages ago this was headed for below 100 in months, and the next two days it bounced up like crazy. You're here on the downswings with your charts and absent on the upswings.

Companies that are turning a profit do not go to a share price of zero. Never happened. What a moronic statement.

Nor do companies that have asset worth in excess of their debt.

Core value is steady as of right now. Given the current exchange rate, the dividend paid to holders yesterday is 31p / share. It's gone ex-div today. Share price right now is 31.50 lower than yesterday. So core value is down exactly 0.50p. Today's price drop only excites those who don't have a clue.

Could stay blue but the div is a big one to make up, that would be about a 10% daily increase.

Or we could see a huge drop. The whole market is behaving like Evraz these days, bounce and weaving like a drunk kangaroo. Long term, I think this is a winner to hold or I wouldn't have topped up but on any single day what it will do depends on who sneezes or doesn't sneeze in Tehran or Beijing or Washington.

I suspect the markets are happy today that it looks like Sanders isn't going to run away with the Democratic nomination. Biden would be back to business as normal in Washington but a little more leftish than it's been in the past. Sanders would be Corbynism trashing the largest market in the world. Now it looks like a reasonable chance that the Dems will stop him. Investors would rather have him stopped two steps short of the presidency rather than be one step away.

I've been watching it for months. I bought it because I think coronavirus has revealed how exposed companies and manufacturers are to just-in-time delivery of goods and components. I think that means, over time, that companies are going to look to increase manufacturing of critical components locally. That means more factories being built and more demand for Rotork's products.

I also have felt for some time that the financials are very strong and that management knows what they are about. I like the cash the company is holding given what the world is doing right now. Also Hostetler's reorganisation really seems to make a lot of sense and seems to be paying off.

I almost bought at 320 a while back and decided to wait (was doing other things with my cash), but when yesterday gave me an opportunity to get in near 280, I grabbed it.

I had no idea what would happen today. I'd feel like a genius if I weren't kicking myself for not buying more. I had the cash to buy 3x as much as I did, but I got scared by the volatility and decided to sit on more cash.

I'm in for the long term, though. I'd be happy if I'd bought in at today's price, today's results basically confirm all the reasons I bought and give me no reasons to doubt the decision. I'd be happy if I'd bought in at today's price rather than yesterday's, that was just a lucky bonus for me. I think this is a long-term winner.

I see coronavirus changing business behaviour as far as less dependence on real-time deliveries and looking to warehouse more goods here. This seems like a share well positioned to take advantage of that change.

I might be an idiot, but at this price....

Company is still profitable and still spitting out dividends. Expect a construction boom later this year as companies wake up to the fact that trusting just-in-time delivery of components, etc, isn't so great if a virus off in some corner of China can shut down your supplies. So companies are going to start building factories for crucial components. More warehousing, etc. More steel needed.

If I'm right, I'm a genius, if not I'll be poor.

Fascinating share price behaviour today. I'm guessing that the huge price drop early convinced a lot of people to close out their short positions so they aren't exposed if tomorrow brings good results.

Hi, Nige. I'm not being pessimistic at all. I don't think coronavirus >should< affect builders. I just think we need to recognise that the market is going to ding builders' share prices because of it, and understand what's going on. Just because the SP drops doesn't mean it is really going to affect builders. As you said, it primarily just means we have a buying opportunity.

I think there are several reasons this is hitting builders.

1. Some builders are using non-UK labour. If it is hitting Italy, it might hit other places from which builders are sourcing labour. This is unlikely to be significant enough to actually impact builders but it's an excuse to follow the market sentiment and cut prices on builders' shares.
2. Fears that a pandemic could hit the UK hard enough to force lockdown / quarantine of entire communities and so could stop some building activities and sales.
3. Fears that a pandemic could mean loss of jobs and income for enough people to hit demand for housing.
4. Fears that a pandemic could hit economic activity so badly that some lenders may be hampered in mortgage lending.
5. Yield competition -- one of the appeals to housebuilders' shares is the good dividend yield. But if you want to chase yield now, you have other options -- RDSB is over 8%, BP almost 7.5%, HSBA over 7%, etc. There are a lot of shares yielding over 6% with these price drops. So some people who are chasing dividends are looking elsewhere besides the housebuilding sector.
6. Pure sentiment. When the entire market starts to drop, usually even those unaffected by the news that triggered the drop fall, too.

No one of those things tells the whole story but they all probably contribute to it.

"TMT, Dividendmax website has ex-div date as 5/3/20. ;)"
Unless they have inside information (doubtful), they are guessing, just like we are. It's a pretty good guess, though! :)

@treblejohn, yes, and there was no second interim dividend in November like the year before. Did all that money get spent on CapEx or was some of it held over for this dividend?

The only factor that would make me expect a smaller dividend is that they probably feel a need to keep some extra reserve due to the multiple impacts of coronavirus. It won't have hit the earnings being reported but it will be hitting currently. Usually these oligarch companies spin out a very high percentage of earnings in dividends, but they'll be keeping more in reserve this time.

I still expect it to be a good dividend.

"I heard the ex div date would be 5/3/20, anyone concur?"

We'll find out Thursday. This year, the results come out on Thursday 27/2.

Last year, they came out Thursday 28/2, it went ex-div Thursday 7/3. If it's the same pattern, yes, it would be Thursday 5/3. No guarantee it will be the same pattern, of course. But not really any reason it should change that I can see.

" This has been going on for 5 years or more and there doesn't seem an end in sight. "
I presume you do know that:
1. The people who set up the excessive bonus scheme are gone, and the executive remuneration policy has been sorted out.
2. The new management commissioned an independent report themselves, which they themselves made public, to identify where they needed to improve.
3. They brought in a policy to delay sales until further in the process to help prevent some of these problems, despite this reducing profit.
4. They aggressively went after the fire safety issues, resolving many of them before it ever went public.
5. They were first in the industry (and I don't know if anyone else has done it) to implement a retention policy allowing the buyer's solicitor to retain some of the purchase price until snagging items are resolved.
6. They've changed their approach to leasehold.
7. They've seen a steady rise over the last year in customer satisfaction rankings.

All of these have come within the last 12 months. If you don't think that's a good start, well, I don't know what to say. Will it solve all the problems from past years? Of course not, but they have been working through some of those, too. Will every new house be perfect? Of course not, that's not possible. Will the build quality be of the absolute best? No, but then, they aren't charging "absolute best" prices, either. They are making thousands of homes every year, and not at the top end of the market, which provides an important service, because there's a shortage of homes and most people can't afford "top of the market." If they had perfect build quality they'd price out most of the people who are really glad to be able to buy a PSN home to get on the housing ladder. And most of those people are happy with their new home. Hopefully, with the changes they have been bringing in, that "most" will become an even higher percentage.

But Radio 4 will always be able to find PSN homeowners that aren't happy. That's life. I bought a TW home some years back. Someone didn't even know how to use a spirit level. That's life, too.

There he goes again. I wanted to find out about his 90%. I asked. I didn't slam him, I asked what he meant. I asked him to give us just one post that isn't the same old rant about royals and religions and freemasons and climate change and bonuses would actually just explain what he meant about this 90% bailout. Anyone can see his response. Apparently because I actually just asked him to explain I'm now a "climate-change denier."

The site says, "Please read our rules before posting." Those rules include:
4 While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate; rudeness, swearing, insulting posts, personal attacks, or posts which are invasive of another's privacy.
5.h (You will not) post non-constructive, meaningless, one word (or short) non-sense posts.
5.k (You will not) post or otherwise publish any content unrelated to the board or the board's topic.

So, exstatex engages in personal attacks, posts non-constructive posts, and rants against the crown estate and George Osborne and David Cameron and masons, and goes on and on about green energy and about how he isn't going to pay any more tax (hope he never buys anything that incurs VAT!). I'm not sure how ranting about green energy or calling me a climate change denier or bashing on about the royals and religion helps anyone make a reasoned decision about whether or not to invest in Persimmon Homes PLC, so it appears to me he's in substantive violation of the rules of posting here.

That's just my opinion. I'm no moderator but if I were the hammer would have fallen hard by now. It doesn't matter that much because we have the filter so I'll moderate him for my purposes. I'll not bother to read or respond again.

@sunset
Good, you've got out. if that's what you think, you should. I bought in because I believed they were trying to turn it around. There's plenty of evidence that the new management gets it and sees the need to turn it around, and plenty of evidence that things are going in a better direction. Radio 4 can bash on about past problems all they want. Even the Guardian, no friend of Persimmon or the corporate world in general, sees what's going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/22/persimmon-putting-house-in-order-corporate-world--pay-attention

That's not an isolated columnist, that's their Business Leader. They say the corporate world should pay attention. Whether you choose to or not, I have been.

@Dunale "To be honest as far as I am aware PSN were not bailed out by anyone during the banking crisis."

You're right and I've said that to exstatex in the past, and asked where this "bail out" came from. He's now indicated that he's talking about an indirect bailout, that the bank bailout was a bailout of the builders because it kept their property prices up. I'm trying to find out if that is really what he means, and where his 90% bailout idea comes from.

Not much hope of any kind of meeting of the minds but am willing to try....

"There you go again trying your best to characterise and personalise ." No, I am trying my best to get you to match your claims with facts.

At least now, instead of just shooting out "90%" as you've been doing for months or longer, you've explained where you think that number comes from. At least, I think it's this: "The pre-bailout value for building sites was anywhere from zero to 10% and that was a cash price since no bank borrowing was available. "

Is that why you say "90%"? I'm trying to understand your 90%. There can be no useful interaction without that understanding.

If you say 90% for another reason, please explain that. Please give us one post that doesn't get into global warming or bonuses or religions or crown estates and just explains why you think Persimmon (no one else, just PSN, that's what this board is about) got a 90% bailout. Is it the statement I quoted above, or something else? If I understand that, then we can go on to other things.

Perhaps because the market agrees with their view about the sector but not necessarily their view about the southeast.