Member Info for TakingMyTime

We've blown through the resistance around 320.

Your charts might have been telling you to sell at 318, and then after the resistance held and it dropped you'd be able to buy back in at 305/310/whatever.

But resistance didn't hold. And the problem is that shares keep blowing through resistance and support levels because the market is manic-depressive right now.

You might make relatively small amounts on the small moves within the bands for a few days and miss the big moves when they come. Because the big losses come when you buy back in above the support levels and then it smashes through the support levels and you lose badly, or when you sell just below the resistance levels and then it blasts through those.

If it were easy money and reliable, everyone would do it and make loads of money. But one big loss can blow through a bunch of small daily gains, so be careful!

"oh...... didn't notice the price of oil going higher. Not complaining as good for my holdings. XD"
As a rule, if you are going to invest in BP, keep an eye on the price of oil....

"£2000 is for the whole tax year april to april aah I miss the 5k limit"
Maybe put your highest div shares in your ISA (or pension) and hold lower div-paying ones outside it?

"Price going higher for divi on thurs?? Can't see any other reason."
A. Price of oil higher.
B. Market as a whole higher.

"Is it really being savvy though to be reneging on its contractual obligations with landlords and say suppliers."
This is a good and fair question.

In my view, they've treated their suppliers pretty well.

Also in my view, their landlords have been giving many breaks to less well-run companies for a couple of years. A company gets in trouble, the landlords give them a rent reduction to keep them afloat. A well-run company can legitimately ask, if you are going to subsidise those who don't manage their business well, why are we not eligible for the same subsidy? They did ask those questions, but didn't get too far with it.

Now, Primark is losing money, too, not for any fault of their own or because of poor management. So, if you subsidised others who were losing money, can we not also negotiate a better deal now that we are losing money?

I believe it is legitimate to take that approach. I assume that an agreement will be reached, and that some of that rent will be paid. But I don't have see any moral objection to the approach they are taking. It is not as if other tenants have not received rent breaks, they have.

"If you think you will breach your CG tax free allowance, but have not divis, then it makes sense to use up your £2k tax free allowance on divis (in the uk)"
This is a good point. Unless you are operating within an ISA of course.

"testing at security, wow, the idea is sound but imagine the practicality of having to do that in real life. and the cost ?"
Indeed. But consider a world where half of the airlines have gone under, those that are flying can only fill 2/3 of their plane, and airfares have tripled. In that world, air travel is only for the middle class and above, and "frequent flyer" means 3-4 times a year. So you are looking at 1/3 of the current passengers running through security.

Presumably you'd have to arrive four hours before your flight to give time for the test, you go through the test, if you pass it then you check your bags and go to security.

It would require better tests and they would have to become economical. But put the pharmaceuticals on how to develop and mass-produce them, and it could happen, maybe sometime in 2021.

That's only one way to do it, but if it could be done, the best way. Better to catch it before someone flies than after.

Maybe let people get a test the day before, with a database that the airline can access so they can see you've been certified in the clear. That would be more efficient and probably a lot less expensive than doing it at the airport. A little bit of room for fraudulent testing, though, so you'd have to have some significant safeguards in place.

"What you have to remember is BP make very little money from Petrol however downstream and it's associated products will be required for as long as you or me will be alive."
Yeah, but the other thing to remember is that, whether they make money or not from petrol, if it starts being used again it starts to cut into the huge over-supply problem that is killing profitability right now. BP doesn't need to sell a lot of petrol but they do need petrol to start being used again.

"This happened to L&G when Aviva after saying they would pay dividend didn't."
There were major market-shaking events in that case. There'd have to be something much bigger than anything now anticipated or BP would lose all credibility. I really, really doubt this dividend will be cut.

If he went into politics, thousands and maybe millions of people could ignore him, instead of the tens of people who ignore him here.

I gather from your response that he hasn't expressed any approval of PSN's furlough decision. In fact, he probably thinks they are being bailed out again, since the furlough plan will help the economy and so PSN will benefit. That's a bailout.

A fortnight's quarantine will not open up flying again. Some combination of the following measures will start to open things up, I'm guessing:
1. Testing for the virus at passport control, followed by quarantine for any who test positive.
or
testing for the virus at security, any who test positive won't be allowed to board
or
testing for antibodies at security, those who have them can bypass the other testing
or
certification of antibody tests within the last X weeks would allow the passenger to bypass the other tests.
2. No one enters the airports without a mask.
3. All passengers required to wear masks from entering the airport to leaving the airport.
4. No middle seat passengers (this will require a 50% increase in airfares, at least). Families of three or more who live (and are traveling) together could purchase a middle seat, which would be at a significantly reduced price.

The testing would require an increase in cost of air travel as well. The total cost of airfare might double.

IAG would survive in this environment, some others may not. Sometime in the next few years there will be sufficient progress on either vaccine, treatment, or preventative measures that those airlines that have survived will then reap the benefits as those restrictions are lifted.

IAG may be better off, in the long term, if it takes a while for restrictions like the above to be lifted, because it may eliminate more rivals.

WB always talks down stuff after he divests, to justify his losses. He hopes to drive the SP down on airlines so he can say he sold before the lows.

Undoubtedly we'll see a big drop today. He's not said anything that should be new or surprising, it's what everyone can see -- this is going to take a while to rebuild. I may buy more. If I'd known he was going to do this obviously I'd have waited before buying in. But he hasn't said anything that changes my view on this share.

@FG, that's cool. I said it was my view.

@AKA, he probably has a calculator and probably was looking for confirmation that he's doing it right. Lots of people are nervous about calculations involving money.

Stay well all.

"Should be £294.29 according to site"
Yes, there or thereabouts, but it depends on the exchange rate, which can fluctuate considerably.

"Are they right? so in effect are moving averages and other indicators obsolete until this crisis starts to go away?"
In my view, yes, they are right. Moving averages and other indicators can be useful because they can tell you where there are likely to be automatic buy/sale signals. So if the market is moving up but it hits one of those places where there are automatic sales, that's "resistance" -- those sales will keep the price from going over that point until they have all been sold out.

And if the price doesn't break through that resistance, more automatic sales may be put in place, making it even harder to break through it the next time.

But big market-moving events blow through resistance and support. The stop-loss orders aren't going to be enough to stop it going through resistance, no matter how much there is, if someone announces a successful drug trial, or a vaccine.

Right now, every rumour is a huge market mover, every Trump tweet, every "major announcement." The market is hypersensitive right now, and the least bit of news blows through the resistance or support levels. They are pointless. The normal rules just don't apply.

My wife bought some GGP recently but I'd decided to skip it. Now that caitlin has dissed it, I think it's probably worth a flyer, might buy some on Monday. :)

"The best scenario is to hold both, which I do. " I'm curious why you say that if you think BP is a better value than Shell right now.

BP vs Shell, fun choice.

Which has the worst gearing?

Which has the most exposure to North American shale, and do you think that is a good or bad thing?

Which has the most exposure to potential Middle East upheaval?

Which has the lowest breakeven point for price of oil?

Which is best positioned if the whole world decides to go hyper-green?

Which do you think is better managed?

So many factors to consider. I think BP is better right now, too, but there are many things to consider on that one.

"Hey guys,
What are your honest thoughts on where this share price will be in 1 month and 2 months?
Suppose it massively depends on whether there will be any news elsewhere and lifting of travel restrictions etc, because can't see much new news coming out of IAG for a while after this."
That's a crap shoot. If you are looking at a short horizon on this share you are gambling, pure and simple, on what the news will be.

I expect the news to start to improve and we could see 250-270 in that time frame. But it's totally a gamble. I'd have never bought this share in this market if I had a short horizon like that.

I expect to see 5-600 on this share but it might take one year or five to get there. I can wait 10 years for that if I have to. But I'd never invest based on what's going to happen next month when there is so much uncertainty in the world. Crazy times out there.

@whatamess "but because it s nice to be right."

Yes, I guessed this about you. You're not stupid enough to really think you can affect the market by what you post here. So the only reason to keep on with it is simply the egotistical "I'm right and everyone should agree with me" motivation. That also explains why you can't see the validity in other viewpoints and treat those who don't see it your way with disrespect.

You are expecting to be right because it's nice to be right. That pretty much tells us all we need to know about you.

Those investors that are successful over the long term are never quite as sure as you are. They recognise that they don't know the future and that there is a chance that they are mistaken. They make a risk-reward assessment and invest accordingly. They know there is no sure thing.