Member Info for TakingMyTime

Have a look at Not-So-Clever, one of Chris Akers fanboys, ramping on another board yet again.

Could almost turn me into an Arsenal fan.

@Dodge, respect is mutual, of course.

Let's put it this way, whether you think those buys are buys or sales, someone (or someones) is selling a load of shares these days. But they aren't doing it in a way to zap the price. That's unusual. That makes me think there's a brain behind the selling at least as much as behind the buying, maybe more so.

But certainly the consolidation is good, the very high volume means a lot of shares are moving into the hands of people who want them. Forget long term, even in the medium term that's very good news.

BTW, remind me never to contradict myself on here, you or someone else will catch me at it, LOL! The best insurance against that is to type loads of tripe that no one wants to search through all of it. Method to my madness after all.

GL to you!

@TOF, thanks, mate. Usually lower liquidity on AIM means more volatility, not less, so not sure it would really qualify for IC even if it were good enough for that.

In this case I think we've got a rather unusual combination of one (or more) very savvy seller(s), probably multiple ready buyers, and the normal small-cap low liquidity, all combining to produce this "stagnation". It's been interesting to watch.

@Dodge
"If anyone wants a quick fix, try C-19 stocks.
All serious investors in GGP, you're more than welcome to stay on board for the ride."

IMO, that's not quite fair. We've had news that there's very significant mineralisation out 200m further than previously known and the SP hasn't moved.

That kind of news in a large-cap share would immediately drive the SP. NCM is up 10%, and Hav is far less than have of NCM's value. For us, Hav is 80-95% of our value right now, and our SP is down, not up. And the only market change since then is that POG is up, which should be helping us, not hurting us.

For someone not used to AIM, it's confusing, and it was a reasonable question. In a large-cap share, it would mean there's some kind of bad news out there that the investor should want to know about. In this case, it's just AIM being AIM -- but new investors might not know that. It doesn't mean they aren't serious.

QF, AIM shares are not like FTSE 100 shares.

In the FTSE 100, short term price movements or stagnation are based on news and (shall we say) "expected" news / market sentiment. If the market sentiment as to the value of the share improves, the price goes up. If not, it goes down. Many private investors and huge institutional investors are paying attention and will make decisions based on news and sentiment. That means the market is fairly efficient -- high liquidity, and the share price roughly matches the average perceived value of the company.

AIM isn't like that. GGP's liquidity is phenomenal for AIM, but it is still AIM. Most investors have never heard of GGP except for a quick blurb they read somewhere about some wacky AIM gold explorer having the best returns in the market so far this year. Most institutional investors will not be paying attention because it isn't a share they'd buy. If they buy AIM, they want something with reliable earnings and probably regular dividends, certainly not a gold explorer.

The result is that share prices for AIM, in the short term, are not based on news. They are based on who is buying and selling, and how much. Pretty clear right now there is a lot of top-slicing going on. People who bought in at a much lower price are selling enough to move to a free carry position. People who lost their jobs, or who have family members who lost jobs, are taking profits because they need them, and hey, they've got a 3-, 4-, 5-bagger or better, they can't complain.

One big buyer can move the market on an AIM share, we saw that when Sprott came in. So can one big seller -- unless they are careful, and drip-feed their shares in to keep from killing the SP. Then, you have temporary stagnation.

I don't know for certain if that's what is happening right now but it looks like it. The market is absorbing those shares, which means there are buyers at this level as well. If we run out of buyers, the price will drop a little and our top-slicers will probably stop selling. If we run out of sellers, the price will go up some, and probably some new top-slicers come in. Right now, we're at an equilibrium that has nothing to do with the real value of the company and everything to do with how many buyers and sellers there are.

It will take a significant shift in balance, either because the top-slicers finish or the buyers finish, or a new big buyer (like Sprott) comes in, or because of significant news bringing in more buyers, before this moves much again. No one knows which will come first. But I'm pretty sure that the big news is going to keep coming and that this stagnation is meaningless.

I checked their year-end cash and decided it wasn't enough for me to feel comfortable. The RNS says they have sufficient liquidity to go to 2021. If true, then it looks pretty good. But I'd want to better understand that before I'd put money into it.

Obviously, there's significant potential upside if the company comes through unscathed.

I don't want to put any more money into this sector than I currently have in IAG, and I'm happy to leave it there. FWIW.

I agree. Why should Greta's Grumbles get better treatment than Pippa's Priorities? You go, Pippa.

Mountain huts NOW!

"Just checking was that meant to be $?"
Later he clearly used $, I assumed it was just a mistake on the graphic.

I'd say that's very conservative. If GH thinks there's any chance of this exceeding 10moz, and I think everyone thinks that's possible, I can't see him agreeing to sell GGP for 15p / share or anything near it.

@BottleRocket, some comments here reminded me, this might be a valuable resource for newbies as well: https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/8-576-7530?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1

@Suno
It may be that it's going to take a year of drilling to get a good estimate of how much gold is on that land. If so, that's in no one's interest -- they want to start mining.

That means it is in the interests of both parties to negotiate an amendment to the current agreement that allows the 5% to be purchased even if we don't know how much gold is there.

That Farm In agreement was made when no one knew what an absolute beast this thing might be. I'm sure they'll find a mutually beneficial way to amend it, without delaying starting the decline.

"Calling someone who cares about the environment and the future of BP a Greta's groupie is abusive"
No one called you that, if you want to appropriate it to yourself you can, I guess.

Do you think there aren't people like that?

Teddy, if you can't understand why someone who thinks news is "partly priced-in" still expects a price increase when the news comes, yes, we'll draw a line under it.

Just spare us snarky comments when those of us who know what it means talk about it, ok? And really, good luck to you. I think you're on a winner here. We don't have to agree on what we've been discussing. We can still both see value in this share and think it has a good future.

@Davielad, we just joined the Aim100. That may mean more of the small cap UK funds will be looking at us.

Given the relatively low market cap, compared to a lot of other shares, a £1-2 million buy from a fund or other institutional investor could drive us up pretty significantly. It could take out all the shorters and all the resistance lines and could take us through the 13p mark and higher pretty quickly. If two or three funds do the same, we could fly.

Something else that could drive things up is if Hannam & Partners update their guidance with a much higher target price.

A third possibility would be if another broker or two started covering us and gave us a buy rating.

It's possible that we could start drilling Scallywag before the next results, and that could also move the price.

So, yeah, lots of things besides further drilling results could drive it.

@Chrisatbirdies
Yeah, I think I remember you suggesting that. I think we've been hung up by Covid, etc, on Scal. This approach would give us funds to drill lots of places.

I've sort of been wondering if we were also having kind of a go-slow on other resources to conserve funds for the mining costs.

Fair enough, Teddy, we'll see. When the news comes, if the price jumps all the way from the low of 160 to 300 (or whatever), then it wasn't priced-in at all. If it jumps from 260 or 270 to 300, it mostly was already priced-in. So let's see what happens.

Do I expect a price increase if the news is good? Sure. Do I think we already got some of that price increase, climbing from 160, because the market expects good news to be coming? Of course.

@Teddy, "I am well aware of how things work in this business."

Whatever. Don't respond to discussions of whether things are "priced in" with "news is news." It makes you sound like an idiot, something you obviously are not.

@WF " makes a Havieron buy out even less likely in the short term."
That's the most interesting part of the whole thing.

I've been thinking for some time that, until there's been some serious drilling in Scal, the BOD was unlikely to recommend any offer to buy out GGP. Too much chance of another Hav in Scal, and losing it on the cheap.

So I've thought if any buyout were happening, it would be NCM buying GGP's share of Hav. But how do you do that if you are hitting gold up there, and maybe down in the SW? There's no way to value it and no way to assess it all before starting the decline for the main hit.

If they are hitting gold either place, I don't see a full buyout of Hav, or an agreed buyout of GGP. That leaves two possibilities -- a hostile takeover of GGP (not necessarily by NCM) or a partial buyout of Hav leaving a huge royalty stake. Like, say NCM pays GGP a big wad of cash and takes on all mining costs in exchange for another 10% of proceeds, leaving GGP with only 15%. Something like that makes it not quite so necessary to accurately value the thing, if the upside is huge GGP's 15% is going to look pretty good anyway, and they can take the cash and go drill Scal.

I'm starting to think something like that, a partial sale of our Hav stake, might be the best option. Loads of lovely cash to go do our exploring AND an ongoing revenue stream.

@Dodge, if this were a weekend we could really run with this! LOL.

@MKumar "Merc, Spy , paddy , TMT , Magic and the learned on here."
Thanks, mate, but one of these is not like the others. I know something about some of the markets but hardly anything about mining.