Member Info for TakingMyTime

@AKA, sorry, I didn't know it was coming across confrontational. Yeah, there were some other posts he had earlier (especially towards someone else) but on the Saudi discussion I didn't notice a bad tone, I just thought we disagreed. It's no crime to be mistaken on Saudi security/politics.

It might damage his investments sometime, of course, and I hope he never goes to live there without actually learning something first. But I didn't think our discussion on this was detrimental. I'll leave it be now.

"With the technology NCM has for drilling and assessment why wouldn't you use your mate to help you with the drilling.?"
Because they might want a bigger share of ownership than you want to give them? Because you are going to be able to do it all on your own (and retain full ownership) reasonably soon?

Why should NCM do it unless they are getting an ownership share? They can get farm in agreements with others where they do get an ownership share, it would make more sense for them to pursue that, unless they are in for a percentage.

And why give them a percentage before we know what we have? What if it's a Kalgoorlie, and we're going to have all the money we need from Hav to do it all ourselves? Why give away 70-75% again?

It made sense to do that with Hav when we didn't have the resources. Resources are going to be pouring in before all that long. We should only give up a percentage of Scal if it makes sense, and if waiting a little bit might mean hundreds of millions, even billions, more in shareholder value, then we should be prepared to wait a little bit.

This isn't a buddy-buddy game, this is business. It's good to have good business partners but that doesn't necessarily mean either partner should not be looking out for their own interests.

@mushroom "small wonder NCM are throwing everything they can lay their hands on"

Indeed. Although the other reason they might be doing that is because, no matter the state of Telfer, a multi-billion gold find is better to be removed from the ground than to be left in the ground, LOL.

@SP. You just described the Shah of Iran's regime, I think.

Clearly, we won't agree, and it does affect how we see the future of oil prices, and to an extent, BP shares.

Will never happen. Their constitution puts stringent limits on what the federal government can and can't do.

American mindset is to not trust their government, not let government run their lives. That's why they don't have an NHS, why they do own guns, etc, etc, etc. Totally different attitude to government over there.

They've heard the rallying cry, "Give me liberty or give me death!" all their lives. Lockdown is taking away liberty to provide safety. They've been conditioned to believe that's a cowardly and immoral decision.

You can't really expect a nation that was founded on rebellion against central government to preserve individual rights to take kindly to central government restricting individual freedoms.

The two weeks since the last stellar results has been interesting. One would have expected some upward price movement after those results. You might have a brief "sell the news" drop but one would expect the news to eventually win and the price to move up.

Hydro noted that virtually every morning there's been a really large trade, around a million shares. It was often denoted as a "buy" but I've never been persuaded of that. The reason I've doubted is because almost every day, we've seen prices drop in the morning to 11.8-9 and then come back at close (or after close) to 12-12.3p. That suggests a large but careful sell in the morning, being absorbed throughout the day, that someone has been taking profits but quietly so as not to spook the market.

That would also explain why the stellar results haven't driven the price higher -- someone has been cashing in. It's not credible, with those results, that the price would struggle to maintain its level at the same time someone is snaffling up a million shares a day.

If my theory is right, we might start to see the move up, once that seller stops taking profits. We're marginally higher at mid-day today than we've been most days recently, and it isn't because the market is flying and dragging us higher. We might be on the verge of the upward move everyone expected after the last results and the Numis upgrade.

Just a theory, though.

@mushroom, you asked how long the cash has to hold before production starts to pay off.

I keep saying I don't know mining, so this may be completely wrong, but it was my understanding that, because there is so much cover at Hav, even going hell-for-leather (which appears to be NCM's modus operandi right now), from the MRE we're at least 18 months and perhaps more likely 2 years from the first production.

Unfortunately, I don't know where I read it. Hopefully if that's all wrong someone will correct it.

I don't think there's much doubt that GGP can get debt financing once the MRE comes in. But obviously, the more cash we have and the less we need to finance, the stronger our negotiating position.

I'm about 99.9% certain there's not going to be a cash call. NCM is going to buy 5% of Hav from GGP. That, and possibly some kind of deal for the remaining 25%, is going to happen before GGP needs more cash.

It's possible these tenements will be sold to help finance our 25% of the cost of mining Hav, if we hold onto that 25%. It's possible those mining costs explain why we aren't spending money drilling Scal, too.

Perhaps GH is keeping as much cash as possible to strengthen the negotiating position with NCM ("sure, we'll have the money to mine and we'll do it if we aren't happy with your offer"). These tenements might end up being part of that.

"The Saudis financial turmoil it's very real but I was also wondering, is it any worse than some Wester countries. Italy and Spain had to beg in EU for a financial relief measure,UK freestyling, US in tail spins and the list goes on."

You really don't get it, mate. If the government in Italy or Spain falls the people in charge retire on a nice government pension, and occasionally get paid stupid amounts of money to go make speeches to groups that like what they did.

If the Saudi government falls, they will be beheaded.

Can the Saudis outlast everyone else? Maybe. But they don't dare find out how long they can outlast others, because a miscalculation is too costly.

I do not foresee any kind of extended price war on the part of the Saudis with the current regime in place. Russia might play that game again but the Saudis won't want to play it at all and certainly not for long.

""They can't afford to scale that back, it's existential."
- They are not quite a Democratic country ,dissent it's not tolerated ,heads end up in spikes outside Riad's desert."
Yeah, Iran wasn't democratic in the days of the Shah. They aren't worried about dissent, they are worried about militant Islamists, financed and armed by Iran and others.

Ok, so you got in at less than the ideal time. That's most of us on most things we buy.

The question remains, why did you buy? Did you buy because you believed the company itself was worth more than that and that the shares would eventually reflect that better value? If so, has anything happened that changed your view on what the company itself is worth?

For me, I think the company is worth a lot more than the shares show right now. So, I'm holding. Doesn't matter what the shares have done the last 9 or 19 or 90 days, it's what I think the company is worth. Because the shares will eventually move close to the true value. In the short term, they'll be all over the place, of course.

If you just bought on a wing and a prayer (well, since we're talking airlines, two wings, I guess), then I guess you learn your lesson and don't do that again. Start now by making an assessment of what you think the company is worth. If you think the shares are higher than that value, then sell, now.

Then, factor in the fact that given current volatility, it might take a while before the shares reflect that worth. Can you afford to wait, if it does take a while? If not, again, you'd best get out. If you can afford to wait, then there's one more question -- do you have a better investment, some place where you'll make more money or be more comfortable with the risk/reward factor? If so, then again, sell, and put your money there. If not, then just hold and wait on.

The other stuff is on ggphelp.co.uk, hopefully BR will get these added as well.

One has to recognise that the Saudis are sitting on a religious tinderbox, some of which they've actually encouraged, and that they've kept it down by pumping oil money into their economy and their state benefits. They can't afford to scale that back, it's existential.

They can play the price war game for a while but they can't sustain it.

@Redirons
1. They aren't mutually exclusive. They can proceed on both joint ventures.
2. Starting the decline doesn't mean we start producing gold the next day. There's a lot of cover. The Antipa/NCM JV, there's very little cover. It's definitely possible that it could be feeding Telfer before Hav is, even if everything is being done to bring Hav forward.

I don't have any money in Antipa and don't intend to. Just saying that "we have a JV with NCM" is not, in itself, compelling, nor is the idea that Scal would come ahead of others just because we've got a good relationship with them.

Antipa's known reserves at Chicken Ranch and Tim's Dome are not large (compared to Hav) but could presumably feed Telfer fairly quickly. https://antipaminerals.com.au/project/wilki-project/

@WF, Antipa has a JV with NCM on ground closer to Telfer than ours. Their deposits are much smaller than Hav but also much nearer the surface, and I wouldn't be surprised to see NCM move ahead quickly on those with a few to feeding Telfer early.

They also have a JV with Rio.

@Savvy, fair enough. My "target" on this is the 600-700 range. I think if it's a V recovery that could happen much earlier than we might think, maybe 2-3 years. My horizon, though, is 10 years. If my investment trebles over the course of 10 years, I'll have done very well. If it happens faster than that, it's a gift.

Long way of saying I agree that this is a long term investment. How long it takes to get there I don't know, but relatively sure it will.

"They are unlikely to be from a large II considering 1m buy at a time or may be they have asked the broker to facilitate in this cheeky manner to optimise"

I'm still not entirely convinced it is buys and not sell orders. But if it is buys, it certainly could be a large II.

There's two kinds of funds, passive and active. Sprott is passive, they are tracking an index. So, when GGP got added to that index (and at a pretty high level), for Sprott to continue to track the index, they bought quickly. Some trackers may move more slowly, it was an interesting decision by Sprott. But usually it happens fairly quickly if not all the same day.

But an active fund manager, he's trying to get the best price. If he can buy in smaller pieces without driving the price up, that's a good move. So if we really do have someone buying 1-2 million a day, the same person, it could well be a fund doing it.

@SavvyInv
You contradict yourself. You say air bridges are already priced in, so it isn't going to go up. You are probably partly right, they probably are partly (mostly?) priced in.

But then you turn around and effectively say we should wait until closer to the time airlines are profitable before investing. In fact, by then, that will be partly priced in, too.

These shares are going to go a lot higher before we ever approach profitability on the expectation / assumption that profitability is coming. We can't assume that the near term good news is priced in but profitability won't be priced in by the time it starts to get closer.

You may be right that there's bumpy times ahead, but likewise you may be wrong. If there's a vaccine by the end of the year, this share will be flying, and profitability will return very, very quickly, more quickly than anyone imagines.

"Brother suggested GGP when at 3p. Got in at 5p after research "

My sister never listens to me, either. Wish I had this kind of evidence to educate her.

@Jambo "Give one solid reason why you would expect the SP to have risen in the last few weeks"

HAD066, high mineralisation 200m further than previous known, less than two weeks ago. SP is lower today than when it was announced.