Member Info for TakingMyTime

LOL, AK.

I still think that increasing my holding after the crash was a good move here, and these will rise, a lot. But mostly I'm looking for long term and I'm becoming less and less convinced, the greener they try to get, that this is where I want to be long term.

I expect massive money printing and potentially significant inflation. If we end up with high inflation, you want to own real assets. Oil is a real asset, if inflation booms, price of oil will boom. In some respects oil might be a better inflation hedge than gold, because gold is a luxury, oil is simply needed.

I'm not sure that wind energy, etc, will respond as well to inflation as oil. So yes, I'm thinking about moving some of my investment here into an oil company that wants to be one, rather than into an oil company that's trying to stop being one. Covid-19 has been a trigger on that for me, because of how I think they are going to try to pay for all this lockdown.

@prospector "Hb, you are right that it raises our profile."

You hit that ball for six. Right on all points.

There are both PIs and IIs who won't touch anything in AIM outside the AIM 100. No guarantee they will now buy GGP but it was guaranteed they wouldn't before and now we will be in their sites. Therefore likely SP boost, though maybe not immediately.

@Chain "How about a little wager,"

That would be a really stupid wager for me to make because I think there's a very strong possibility we'll be mining it. I think it's more likely than the alternatives. So why would I bet against the most likely scenario? LOL. My bride would shoot me.

But I certainly think the alternatives are in the running.

I'm prepared to hold this share for 5 or more years, if you are right. I'm also prepared to get cashed out and have to find a new home for the proceeds within the next six months. Already looking for the next investment if that happens, because all options are on the table (for both NCM and GGP).

Part of that "being ready" was buying some NCM shares. They are going to make a lot of money on Hav, whether with 75% or 100%. They are also likely to make money on processing ore from Scal (if there is any, which seems likely), whether in a JV with GGP or not. And if they buy Hav from GGP, or buy GGP, I want to benefit from it as one of their shareholders. Owning some NCM is hedging my bets against a huge asset being sold out from under me -- at least I'll then own part of the buyer as well.

"This again raises the point Tom, why would Newcrest Pay through the nose for 5 percent, and then another 25 percent only after they have purchased the initial 5 at FMV, when they've bought 70 percent for a comparitvely paltry sum."

Because they are miners and a huge asset is sitting on their doorstep and if they own it they get to mine it and keep the proceeds. It's their business, to mine, and there it is.

Doesn't matter if they already got 70-75% cheaper. That other 25% is gold in the ground which is worth considerably less than gold out of the ground. So they can buy it in the ground and then operate their business to take it out of the ground and make loads of lovely money selling it at the higher out-of-the-ground price. Why wouldn't they?

The only reason they wouldn't is if GGP refuses to sell it at a price they are willing to pay. But it certainly makes sense for them to buy it if they can get a price they like. And it certainly makes sense for GGP to sell it if they get a price they like.

I have no strong preference either way, but I think you'd be making a mistake to plan your investment strategy without considering it a very, very realistic possibility.

T&T, I don't think you are really following the Venus / Rox deal you are talking about.

The release says Venus is receiving $2m cash, another $1m in shares or cash, and Rox is funding development.

Why is Rox suddenly just turning magnanimous? Why are they shelling out all this money?

"This follows RXL exercising its option to acquire a further 20 percent interest in the OYG Joint
Venture (Figure 1) from Venus."

In other words, that's the trigger. Rox takes another 20%, Venus gets cash and shares, Rox will pay development costs. It's all part of the JV agreement.

Our JV agreement didn't have those provisions.

You say what a great idea, for NCM to pay development costs at 0%. Great idea for GGP. I also happen to own shares in NCM, and I'm asking, "Why should NCM do that?" All their other shareholders would say the same, and most don't own GGP. "What do we get for this multi-year interest free loan we're handing to GGP?" They'll want interest or they'll want GGP shares or to bump up their share from 75% to 80%, or something. There's no reason NCM would do this unless it was part of the farm in agreement / JV.

@londoner7
I also want to own an oil company. Starting to think it is time to start divesting from BP for that reason, they're becoming Greta Groupies. What companies have you looked at?

Yes, paid de-rampers exist. https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/. Sometimes they are right, too.

There's no way they'd pay someone to deramp GGP here. It wouldn't work. De-rampers here end up looking like idiots. No one would be stupid enough to pay someone to do it.

@Academy, no doubt it describes behaviour seen here. Most lies have a ring of truth to them or no one would believe them.

@Floater, it's theoretically possible that rampers / derampers on a board can move an AIM share, if you have a particularly active forum with a relatively illiquid share. Practically, no, it's unlikely to have any impact. The ramping/deramping has to have a wide enough audience to affect the behaviour of some buyers/sellers.

But if it has that wide of an audience, then likely it is because the forum is active enough that you have a lot of clued-in investors, an active community, and generally enough liquidity that the few people who might be influenced by ramping/de-ramping are overwhelmed by those buying/selling based on research / investment strategy.

Ramping by a board / company exec / broker can have an impact but ramping on a forum? Probably not ever.

The silly thing is when someone does it on BP or IAG or some other massive company. Multi-billion dollar company and you think that your words on a forum are going to convince enough people to affect the SP? Total lunacy.

@BottleRocket

You laughed at my joke. That might make you lonely but you are now my best friend.

It's been around for 15 years or more.

People who make bad investment decisions can't have made a bad decision, it must be someone else's fault. So they are ripe for this one and keep passing it on.

If you buy companies that have value, the value will come through even if someone plays a few games here and there. DYOR and don't worry about what some idiots might post on a forum. The great thing about forums is that someone is always able to refute the rubbish, so it might affect a few people, but not many.

Two main things will drive this SP up -- more gold, or more institutional investors. If neither happens, we'll stagnate. If either happens, the derampers and shorters will be powerless.

Urban myth.

@MD, of course there may be a short term drop.

Long term, helicopter loads of money is going to generate inflation that will flow into house prices as well.

@Herbie
I expect to see house price inflation, too. Housing shortage. London/South-east may hurt but most of the country will see house prices increase.

"Buy some more tomorrow sub 12 "

I wouldn't count on that. All it takes is another II to come in at close of trade today and we might be over 13 tomorrow.

Looks like this is the other half of the deal by which Rox acquired the next 20%, taking it to 70/30.

It's possible GGP could give up a greater percentage to NCM in exchange for them paying all the costs. There are many possible deals and possible ways they could be structured.

Everyone is thinking it's going to be A) NCM buys GGP or B) NCM buys the rest of Hav from GGP or C) GGP holds and goes to mining. In fact, there's many options.

It seems to be the done thing here to say it so I'll just say I added another lot to my holding earlier at 12.1p. Wish I could have done it yesterday, but hey ho. It's still enough to move retirement forward a year if Mickey's right, LOL.

Does reading Mickey's SP projection count as DYOR? Asking for a friend.

"14-18p next 10 days or so"

It does seem possible. Of course none of us know if any of the UK small cap funds are going to join this expedition on Monday but some of them have to be thinking about it.

Not really expecting any major news in that time frame or GH wouldn't have been trading on Monday. But a couple funds taking a position would blow through the shorters and any resistance -- we've seen that already.

@Spy "lol, confirms what you suspect and more. they had juicy gossip"
And Mickey suspects 74p.

Just waiting for you to call Paddy a ramper again, LOL.

"Are we going up today or down?"
Yes, we are going up or down. Or both.

Fortunately, no one can really tell you which or investing/trading would be boring.

My view, FWIW, is that having your money in cash is going to be a loser because inflation is indeed going to kick up.

It is not politically palatable to increase taxes or cut spending sufficiently to cover the debt, even if Covid19 hadn't come along. Now that it has, even more so. So the solution will be inflation. Central banks will keep printing money, and eventually inflation will come along.

That means cash and bonds will be losers and assets whose prices will inflate will be winners. Gold/silver, oil, property, etc.

Our politicians don't have the courage to take on the debt properly, they'll do an end run. The result is that savers/pensioners will suffer.