Member Info for TakingMyTime

@QF "Hi TMT I would be intrigued to know what your share level treats to yourself would be "

15p -- smiles and writes another long comment on the BB
18p -- smiles and writes another long comment, and tells the Mrs to quit bagging about her first full-bagger ever, we're not done
20p -- smiles and writes another long comment
25p -- looks anxiously at GH, sees he's still not talking about selling the company, smiles, and writes another long comment.
30p -- another long comment
Seems to be a trend here.

If company is sold at 30p, it's going to make for a really nice holiday upon retirement. Anything north of that and it will add to the money my kids will have to waste.

If we get to £1, it would probably mean retiring a year earlier than expected, and so at that level I'm sure we'd at least top-slice. A whole extra year just to do what we want to do? Yeah, very tempting.

We're not the type to just spend money because we have it. So the SP doesn't mean that much until we get high enough to really matter. I don't have as many shares as some others because we got in late.

@Jerry "I think a lot of people are missing quite a good bullish signal on these Director option exercises"

A couple of weeks ago I was intrigued by the fact that GH was exercising options early. It did not make any sense to me, why should he do that? I got a lot of flack for talking about it here because people thought I was focused on him selling some of the shares, but it was the early options exercise that I wanted to understand.

As best as I can understand from Australian tax laws, you are correct. It is advantageous for them to exercise before the share price skyrockets, if it is going to.

The other reason under Oz tax laws to exercise early is that if employee shares are held for a year before being sold, only 50% of the capital gains are taxable. So if they are thinking maybe the company will be bought out sometime late 2021 (after finding lots of gold in Scallywag, maybe?), then those shares will incur less capital gains tax by the options being exercised now.

So it may be that they see a potential future buyout and want to get the shares into their names now as a result to reduce future capital gains tax.

Either way I see the early exercise as strongly indicative of their belief in the future. It's not just "Oh this is a good deal, I can get these assets for a lot less than the current market value." If it were that, they'd turn around and sell them all. That's not what's happening. This is "we think some very good things are going to be happening and since that's what we think, there are good tax reasons for us to go now."

@dave, "all the time" in casual language doesn't necessarily mean "always" or "in every single instance", it can also mean "very frequently". You are right, brokers are not wrong in every single instance, neither inferred nor meant to imply that they are.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/all-the-time?s=t

Hopefully that's finished that one.

The RNS for the day has been dealt with, we all know the SP will close at 12p again today, we've already done what QF will do for a celebration at various share price levels. Nobody wants to go back to electric cars or, God forbid, percentages. Nobody wants to talk about politics. What should we debate now?

Guess I'll actually work the rest of the day, LOL.

@Dave, target prices can be either too high or too low. The 12p was almost certainly too low, go forward a year from when they set it and you'll likely see something considerably higher. I expect the 15p is too low as well.

Anyone with a brain knows there are both upside and downside risks. Brokers have to try to balance the weight of probabilities of both and pull a single number out of their backside when setting a target price. It's a mug's game but it's become the thing to do, so they do it.

I'm waiting for the day a broker says, "Honestly, we don't have a clue what the share price will be a year from now. There might be a pandemic or a market crash or an asteroid, or Donald Trump and Xi Jinping and Vlad Putin and Hossan Rouhani could all fall madly in love with each other, world peace and no-border trade could break out, and the markets could treble by this time next year. If you want a look in a crystal ball, go pay some dodgy lady in a tent at the circus. But we can tell you that we think this share is undervalued compared to its peers, here's why, DYOR, but we're recommending our clients buy it."

@dave, LOL, should we say "most of the time"? They are predicting where they think the share price will be a year from now (that's what they usually mean by "target price"). Probably less than 10% of them are accurate within a 5% tolerance.

That's the one, TomE. I think that's the kind of thing that could really help a new/potential investor trying to make a decision.

@All, don't compliment ME on GGPHelp, that's not MY work, it's all BottleRocket! I've made a few suggestions, is all.

@BR
On 2) updating cash, maybe just say, "As of" and "check RNS for more recent updates." That way, if you are out of date, anyone who cares to research can find it.

On 4), the warrants stuff was written on yesterday's coffee, LOL.

On 6) it is fact, but what kind of fact? The fact is that there are some brokers that are high on GGP. Most people thinking about investing are going to be asking, "How come the brokers aren't talking about this?" The fact is, they are. Nobody expects broker ratings to be perfect, they get stuff wrong all the time, but the fact that there are brokers talking about an AIM share is a good thing. As long as you are clear that it is broker ratings or broker targets, anyone who doesn't understand what that is can google it and learn.

7) Some explanations from magic would be great, if he wants to do it!

Again, mega kudos from me!

@lseo, that 88e page is amazing. Thanks for pointing that out. Somebody's been doing that one for a while.

Great stuff, BR. Suggestions (take them or leave them):
1. On the FAQ, you've got Rundall instead of Rudall. Hope you'll take the suggestion to fix that, LOL.
2. Also FAQ, does Greatland have enough cash, you could link to the RNS that just said how much they have, it's more current than the results to which you linked.
3. On shares in issue, your number is out of date already, LOL. I would recommend, so you don't have to keep updating it, that you just say something like this: "Because the company has outstanding warrants and options, the number of shares outstanding changes most months. Full details of currently outstanding shares, options, warrants, and contingent liability shares can be found here:" and then the link.
4. If you want to explain the warrants, feel free to lift any of my text that is helpful from my two long posts in the recent "block listing" discussion. It's a little long for a FAQ so if you want to slash a lot of it that's fine. Alternatively, if you wanted, you could take it out of FAQ and add another page on the Greatland Gold Company (below The Greatland Gold Projects) called Greatland Share Capital. It could link to the same page on the company site that you currently link to, and include discussion of warrants, options, and the contingent liability. If you go that way, you could also maybe link to the GH interview where he talked about protecting shareholder value and using debt financing to mine Hav -- indicating he wants to minimise future dilution.
5. This one is sort of larger. The FAQ is not really limited to "company information". I think it would be better if it were bumped up to the main menu alongside "Company Information", "Private Investor Findings", and "Items of Interest".
6. I'd add Broker Ratings somewhere. You could list Numis and their old target, and when it was updated, and Hannam & Partners, and when they initiated cover and their target. Probably shouldn't go any further than date, target, and a link to their site. Maybe add this as a separate section under Items of Interest?
7. Finally, under Projects, this looks great, but I wonder if you asked, if GGP would give you permission to reproduce any of their maps (like https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Figure-2-Schematic-Plan-View-of-Horizonal-Slice.jpg) on your site. People are tweeting these kinds of things all over the place. I wouldn't do it without asking, though. But they just might say yes, and if it were me, I'd try.

I wonder if anywhere else in the world of investments, any private investor is doing something like this. I suppose it has probably happened somewhere but it's unique in my experience. When we talked about it initially I never really thought anyone would take it to this level. It's rather incredible. Good luck to you.

@l-a "no evidence for this atm"
He said it was "just a hunch" when he first said it.

I don't agree with his hunch, it doesn't make sense to me, but I don't ask for evidence for hunches, either, LOL.

"I've never understood why people block others who post things that dont suit their narrative or thoughts?"
Always interested in a well-thought out contrary view. Not interested in assertions based on unsubstantiated predictions and other silliness which have no basis in reality. Especially not from someone who is clearly simply deramping for his own purposes.

At least one of the people I've filtered has admitted that he sees a long-term future in this share but doesn't want to buy in at this price. He's obviously trying to talk the SP down to the level at which he wants to buy -- as if that would even be possible for a company this size. That guy does not have my interests at heart, he's trying to influence me in a way that is contrary to my interests for his own benefit. I have no interest in reading him.

@Barcode "IAG are dysfunctional at the moment"

I quit even thinking about answering you some time ago, but this one finally convinced me to say this: Barcode is dysfunctional at the moment and I'm now filtering him.

And George, if you keep answering whatamess then I have to read what he's saying in your posts and I am filtering him precisely because I don't want to read what he's saying. Total waste of time reading or responding. So if you keep answering him I'll be forced to filter you, too, even though I don't want to. Sorry, but that's the way it is.

For some reason, the idiot derampers love this share and answering doesn't work, the only solution is to filter them.

Unless you were intending to sell the whole lot of them. Otherwise, you'd wait, in case disaster hit, and the price dropped below the exercise price.

@MDC1, but why would you exercise early? Likely in most cases you wouldn't, would you?

@noobz
Can't quite decipher everything you said there, but if the 24m shares issued for warrants this month were all sold, it would have helped hold the price down, certainly. But they've been absorbed, which suggests that someone (or multiple someones) have been doing some serious buying, too.

@schlemiel
I think that any substantive coordination would require disclosure and might even be illegal market manipulation. It's one thing for market makers to play games with bid/offer spreads and quite another for the company itself to be coordinating with shareholders as to when they will sell shares.

There might be some "wink and a nod" going on but I'd guess most people are just doing what they perceive to be as in their own interests. I don't see enough warrants in today's RNS to make me think this is a huge factor in what we've seen in the market, either.

@aidinandabettin
Right. So here's part two. As you said, "the warrant holders buy them at 2.5p and sell them at 12p," and as you said, "fair dues." No one should complain about it, we might not be where we are if they hadn't put up cash back then.

Except, maybe not. There's no guarantee that the warrant holders who are exercising their warrants are selling -- but probably most of them are. Their warrants don't expire until next year, so why would they exercise them now, and pay that 2.5p / share, if they aren't intending to sell them? There's at least a few reasons they might be exercising and holding.

1. There might be tax considerations. Depending on where the warrant holders live, they might have a big tax hit when they exercise the warrants at a price far lower than the market price. Different jurisdictions have different tax rules. It might save them a lot of money on taxes to do it now when the price difference is 10p rather than next year when it is maybe 20 or 30p.

2. I haven't researched the terms of the warrants, but they might not have the right to convert and have a vote if there's a takeover offer (hostile or otherwise). If they don't have that right, they may want to convert now so they have actual voting shares if that happens. If a warrant holder thinks that is imminent they might put up the cash to convert now.

3. They might just feel uncomfortable about the thing and want it done. Most people won't be this way but some will. Maybe they want the liquidity immediately if they need it. Maybe they just aren't logical and so won't wait, even though from a purely mathematical / logical perspective it makes sense to wait. Whatever the reason, they are doing it.

4. Maybe they want to increase their shareholding on a break-even cash perspective. They exercise their warrants and sell 20% of the new shares, and get their money back. This isn't entirely logical, either, logically it only makes sense to exercise the shares you want to sell, but people do that kind of thing.

Some of all those things may be happening, but mostly, people who exercise warrants early are doing so because they want to sell. So those who say the selling is probably warrant holders are certainly at least partly right.

Note: The warrant holders will certainly have the right to fully take part in any takeover, so the warrants should be included in any calculation of the distribution of takeover proceeds. I suspect they also will have the right to exercise the warrant and have a vote, despite what I said above -- it will be in the documentation, one way or another. Also, warrant holders will undoubtedly exercise if there were to be a special dividend after, for instance, a sale of part or all of our share of Havieron.

Apologies if I've made any mistakes in these last couple of posts but I think that should give a reasonably clear picture of what's up with the warrants.

@Steven, a lot of people seem confused about this so will try to help.

Last 12 August, GGP raised funds for exploration by issuing new shares. You can read about it here: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GGP/greatland-gold-plc-greatland-raises-42m-and-appoints-joint-broker-q9mgbp276msbrhc.html

Briefly, they sold 225m shares at 1.85p per share. That was a good approximation of the market price at the time. Since the new shareholders weren't getting a discount to market price, they were instead offered another incentive -- warrants on a 1-1 basis. For every share they purchased, they got a warrant for another share which they could purchase at 2.5p per share. Those warrants were good for 2 years, if they aren't exercised by August 2021 they expire.

Obviously, it made no sense back then for warrant holders to pay 2.5p per share, they could just buy them in the market for around 1.85p. But now, it makes lots of sense for them to do so, since those shares today are worth around 12p (depending on what mood the MMs are in at the time you sell, of course, LOL).

These are the warrants that are being talked about. Basically, it's a contingent liability for the company that they have to sell these shares to the warrant holders at this absurdly low price (given today's market) anytime the warrant holder says, "Do it now." The drawback is it dilutes the shares. The advantage is that it gives GGP more cash to drill holes wherever on God's blessed earth GH and CB choose.

End of part one, will scribble more in a couple minutes I hope.

Yes, although IMO NCM, if they buy all of Hav or all of GGP, will do so with cash and debt financing, so their SP is probably not a significant factor. But certainly an increasing SP does give flexibility to do equity financing if they decide to go that way.

"Pippa peaches..have you thought about therapy?"
Maybe a holiday in a mountain hut.