Member Info for TakingMyTime

@jdt "TMT I do agree with you that talks of £1 are very much ambitious targets for the long term (certainly not unfeasible) and some people are in here for the long term that is for sure."

Precisely. Or, indeed £2!

As to your other points, I fully agree. I'm persuaded Hav is undervalued by the market, both because people aren't really paying attention to how big it is and because (IMO) they are ignoring the Cu and its impact on the AISC. I think the market is expecting a somewhat normal AISC of $800-1000, and I think it will be way, way lower than that.

I think Hav SHOULD be valued at close to 20p / share, right now, and if the drilling keeps bringing back magic results, that will go up. But it takes the market a long time for the SP to catch up to these things, and with new finds in Scal, perhaps even longer, since there's no guarantee NCM will be ramping those.

If you are waiting for £1 (or £2!!!), that's only going to come if Hav keeps on giving and giving and giving. Scallywag, and this new tenement, are not going to be major drivers of the SP for quite a while. That's not how the SP on gold explorers works -- IIs aren't going to buy without compelling evidence of real resources.

Not wanting to cool the excitement too much, but let's just remember that the market as of right now is putting a value on Hav of 11-12p / share. If one of these targets turns up another Havieron and it gets to the same point we are at with Hav (Farm in, extensive drilling), the market would probably value it at 12p, once it gets to that point. Maybe Hav will be valued more highly by then.

If you are looking for a really high SP out of this, it's going to take a LOT of time.

Another sign of a well-run company, IMO. Now's the time to just get on with things like that, get it done.

LOL, BBB on a roll again!

Spoonkey, you've launched into your political stuff at least three times on this board. This one didn't even have a pretence of being IAG related. You always say you aren't going to do it again, and you do it again.

It's too bad because when you talk IAG / investments you bring useful thoughts to the board.

But if you do this again I'm not only reporting the thread, I'm also going to report that it's a repeated pattern that can be seen in your history and you've repeatedly disrupted the board with it.

@dave, not sure the point of copying the whole thing just to bump it, we're quite capable of checking the start of a thread to see what's under discussion. And for a long post on something that's not been discussed much, if you want a thoughtful discussion you might want to give people time to think about it before bumping it and demanding they discuss it.

That said, in brief, a spin-off is one of many possibilities. It may well be worth giving some consideration, but we still don't know if NCM is going to make an offer for our share of Hav, an offer for the entire company, or if someone else will come in and make an offer. Or even if there is going to be a bidding war. Or what the offers might be.

If someone wants to pay a high enough price, there won't be any need to take complicated measures.

"That surprised me that telfer has only produced 6million ounces."

Surprised me, too. To be precise, the statement was " it has generated more than 6 million ounces of gold," which is technically accurate but misleading, because it is far more than that.

It produced about that much before it was closed down in 2000. After the restart it has produced another 5moz.

Some people didn't get that the AIM100 is not the FTSE100. Several people did mention this would take off once the trackers had to start buying it. Of course, there aren't any such trackers.

It might let some funds buy that had internal restrictions on AIM shares not in the 100. That doesn't mean they will, it means they could, now. It might get the attention of more funds, but that doesn't mean they'll buy, either. It might get the attention of more PIs but that doesn't mean they'll buy.

It can't hurt. It probably will help over time because it probably will mean more buyers. It might help a lot if some funds who couldn't buy before are now looking at it. We still could see several such funds buy in fairly soon, and if so, it could give the SP a nice boost.

But it was never going to be an immediate boost. I know some people thought that, but not that many.

Petrochemical sale will reduce gearing and support dividend. Not sure now there will be a cut this time, and if there is, it won't be as big as it would have been.

A cut was more obvious last time than it is this time, and they didn't do it then. Yesterday, I'd have said this next div was likely to be cut, probably at least an 80% chance. With today's news, it's probably closer to 50%.

"I still beleive GH and SB are making joint arrangements behind the scenes whilst Hav takes priority."
As a shareholder of NCM I hope so, but as a shareholder of GGP I hope not. I doubt NCM offers much better terms for Scal right now than at Hav, just as I doubt Rio would, either. Drill it, prove you've got a significant resource, then let them bid for who wants to mine it.

Just imagine if we were going to own 40% of Hav instead of 25%.

The next question for you -- if you can't get in below 230p, what are you going to do? Ideally, you plan now because you may have to decide quickly.

I think there's a realistic chance it could open higher than that. This share is manic. Not quite as volatile as Evraz, I think, but it's definitely all over the place. I could easily see this opening at 235-240, and go above 250 very quickly -- and then drop to 230 or lower on Tuesday or Wednesday. We've all seen that kind of behaviour.

On the other hand, we might now have turned the corner. Apparently, a deal with the pilots, lots of European travel opening up, we might never see 230 again. If it opens at 235, do you want to risk that, or do you want to say, "This is a good price, I'm getting in."

If you want to get in, you would do well to decide in advance what's your cutoff point. Is the 230 a hard line, or would you take 231, or 233, or....

GL.

RA, really nice discussion of some of the possibilities out there.

It's possible that at the completion of phase 4 it will still not be possible to have any kind of realistic estimate of just how much gold and copper there is. What then? How do you value the 5% then? Was the agreement written with that in mind? So many unknowns.

I agree, I've never seen a share like this. Takeover speculation, yes, speculation about world events / POG, yes. Seen that lots of times. But this one is in a class by itself. The collective knowledge on this board about this company is far beyond what even the best institutional investors are likely to assemble. If GH were to sneeze, someone would pick it up on a seismograph reading, report it here, and we'd have 15 posts debating whether it were a cold or pollen allergies, with the force of the sneeze cited as evidence, LOL. But a lot of things discussed here really are relevant, or potentially relevant. It's very interesting sociologically as well as, of course, financially.

@redleader "I feel this is the exact reason Hav will go to NC 100%."

It all depends on what they offer and if GH thinks it is good value. If he's not persuaded it is good enough for what's down there, he'll borrow the money he needs, he's made that pretty clear.

Of course, this is not a "one thing or the other." By the time this is mined we could own anywhere from 0-25% of it. We're going to own 30%, but NCM has the right to buy 5% more and almost certainly will. Maybe GH sells them another 10%, taking us down to 15%, which should give us plenty of money to pay our share of the mining costs, with plenty left over to do all the drilling you mentioned and more.

So, maybe NCM will own 100% but there's so many possibilities out there it's really hard to say what will happen.

It really is a fun time to own these shares.

@TimberTrader, totally agree.

The only reasons not to start drilling somewhere would be if 1) we can't because of COVID or Martu people or 2) we can't because we are conserving funds that we will need for Hav.

I don't at all think that drilling Scal or anywhere else brings any risk into the picture. H&P figured the value of GGP by calculating what they thought Hav is worth and tossing in a few pennies, Australian ones at that, for everything else. It was less than 1p / share for Scal and everything else combined.

So if you drill every site of interest at Scallywag and find nothing economical to mine, maybe you turn that 1p for Scal and everything else into 0.1p. To which I say, who cares? Because if you have a good find there, you might turn that 1p into 10p, or 20, or 30. It's going to have no real bearing on the value of GGP unless it's good news, and if it is good news, it could be massive.

Prove up a valuable resource in Scal and you've just strengthened your hand on any negotiations anyway and put rockets under your SP. Would be great to see drilling started, if it makes practical sense to do so.

It hasn't solved our US flights problem, but it should put to rest the idea that people will be too afraid to travel. There will be some like that, but a lot of people are just fed up with being penned in, told what to do, given no freedom. People will give up their freedom for a while if there's compelling reason but they don't like it, and once they can travel, a lot of them will.

That's phenomenal, BR. An incredible amount of work you're putting into this.

Share pricing is always speculative.

This company is losing money right now. Bucketloads of it. It's at war with its staff. The press hates it and so do a lot of MPs. There is no good hard news that would make this company worth anything.

The only reason it has any value at all is because of speculative news already being partly priced in. If it weren't for that, the share value would be zero. The only reason anyone thinks it is worth owning these shares is because they think good news (that hasn't arrived yet) is coming. That's speculation. The price reflects it.

I'm not sure why this is hard to understand.

@Joe, fortunately I type fast and post lots of blather that takes little thought. Like this one.

Just me, though, never had another ID here. I don't think people get banned for posting a lot.

"Yes, I must admit it did cross my mind that someone would jump all over me for the share price gag!"

Oh, well, lots of really nice people have grumpy days, too.

And honestly, the news and social media make it worse. How ever did our great great grandparents manage to survive without knowing how many people were in intensive care with Covid-19 in Vietnam and what the most recent R rate was in Chula Vista, California, and how many care homes in Rio had current cases, and the latest analysis as to whether the Swedish approach is better than the South African? Or, for that matter, which politician just tweeted something stupid this morning, and which of their opponents have tweeted something stupid or clever in response?

Somehow, despite lacking all that vital knowledge, they managed to scrape together enough food and shelter to both survive and procreate so that we'd be here. They might even have been happy sometimes!

Would be surprised, Stephen. I think most market participants knew this was coming before long, so most have already factored it in their investment decisions. No one would have been buying this if they didn't think it was coming before too long.

I expect the certainty will help, and there will be a boost, but probably not that big of a boost. This share is also sensitive to the markets, when markets go down, it goes down, up and it goes up. So if the markets move up, that will help, too. But I think we only see 250 on Monday if the markets get a big boost.

The news this share is waiting for is US flights opening up. Everyone expects that, too, but no one really knows whether it will be August, October, or 2021. If we got news it was August, we'd probably see 300 in short order, probably even higher. Maybe even 400.