RE: Timing.1 Sep 2020 15:43
@Paddy "will they just start to buy first thing on Friday the 18th and keep going until they've satisfied the order?"
Someone posted (maybe AM90, he obviously knows this stuff) that what they've done previously is buy near the end of the day -- in America. So that makes it very interesting because our markets will be closed by then. Will they bring the buys forward because of that? I think if they try to buy GGP near the end of the day on the 18th they won't get close to filling an order for that many shares that quickly.
It will be kind of a game. If they try to buy at 16p, and don't get many takers, it will have to go to 17p, then 18, etc. If you are wanting to top slice, you don't want to be the guy who sells at 16 whilst it is on its way to 20 or more. But you don't want to hold out for 25p and have them fill their orders at 19-20, and then you sell into weakness as it drops back to 18-19, or something like that. (I'm just throwing numbers out, I don't have a clue how high that big of a buy would drive us.)
The longer sellers hold out the better price they are likely to get -- if they don't hold too long. And no one will know when they are done buying. We'll be able to see volume on the day and that might give us a clue, but we won't know exactly how much they are buying and we won't know how much of the activity will be them.
And it's very, very likely that once they are done buying, the market will catch its breath. Some people who didn't know what was going on will wake up and say, "Wow, my GGP SKYROCKETED," and they'll sell or top-slice. If this really happens, I'm guessing wildly that we'll see something over 20p -- and then a drop back below 20p after they finish buying. It's going to be fun to watch it, not just because I'm a holder but because of professional interest in market behaviour.
The thing that makes it really hard to predict with GGP is that the shareholder base is much more tuned in than most shares. I'm sure there's some front-running on this "rumour" -- but I still think most shares are in the hands of people who still want to hold the shares and will, at the most, top-slice, rather than sell out completely. This shareholder base is more committed than most. With so many shares in sticky hands, it's really hard to say where a buy of 4% of the company will take us, and how the mechanics of it will work out -- especially since we don't know for sure when the buying will start.
Fun times, everyone should have plenty of popcorn to watch the show on the 18th and 21st, if it happens.
Wish I could read GH's mind, pretty sure he knows. Looking forward to his tweet one the index news drops!
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