Member Info for TakingMyTime

@FSA re: inheritance tax
To say this is debated is an understatement. But there certainly is a risk that the interpretation you've cited is the one HMRC would take.

If we hold onto our share of Hav, even though it is a JV, it will certainly strengthen the argument that we are trading and not just a land company.

I asked this a few days ago. No answers.

Why, when a vaccine for H1N1 was rushed out under Obama because of a health crisis, was it a good thing to expedite it to save lives?

But, when the same happens now for a much worse crisis, it's lies and Trump forcing it for political benefit?

Isn't it possible that this is legit and really good news, and that (given how many people this virus has called) it's a good thing to fast track a vaccine for those at risk who want it? Or are we so politically focused that everything has to be seen through a political lens? Would we rather people just die from the virus, or let them have a chance to take a vaccine early, even if there's more risk, if they choose?

I don't get the attitudes on this.

@RA re: GDX, it's an interesting one. Using the official London Stock Exchange closing price at the end of August (Friday) of 14.8, and the official GGP share listing of 3,793,940,416, you have MCAP of £561,503,181.56. Using the BOE exchange rate for the day of 0.7502, you have MCAP of USD $748 million.

If you use the US close of 1.335 you are over $749 million. If you use the US close on Monday the 31st, you are over 750 million.

I don't know which exchange rate they use. They are supposed to value end of the trading month, which would be the 28th since we had a bank holiday on the 31st. But they were open on the 31st, so did they take closing SP on the 28th and exchange rate on the 31st, or use the exchange rate on the 28th?

I haven't looked more closely at GDX inclusion, because I think we missed it on MCAP, barely. It wasn't even on the horizon when we talked about GDXJ but the SP went up and we had more shares issued, too. I expect they used the exchange rate on the 28th. I could be very pleasantly surprised.

If we were that close GH will be kicking himself that he didn't exercise more options, LOL.

Hi, Speedy. Unless I'm totally missing something, GLDX was rebranded to GOEX and tracks a Solactive index, not the MVIS index. Open to being corrected if I'm wrong.

@aprogerson
Based on the reading by several of us of the index rules (accessible from here: https://www.mvis-indices.com/indices/hard-asset/mvis-global-junior-gold-miners), we believe it is highly likely that GGP will be added to the MVIS junior gold index this month. The review results will be announced 11 September, and take effect 18 September.

Based on the same reading, GGP's weighting in the index is likely to be somewhere between 0.4-0.8%, but there are factors that make it hard to be more precise.

The index says there are $8 Bln (USD) in assets tracking the index. We've not been able to specifically identify any other than GDXJ, which is $6 Bln. Depending on the weighting and on whether it is $6 or $8 Bln, there could be somewhere between £19 million and £50 million (pounds sterling) of purchases of GGP shares by a tracker or trackers on 18 September. We don't know how many actual shares it will be because we don't know how what the price the tracker(s) will have to pay -- it may be quite a bit higher than today's price by the time they are done buying, perhaps even before they start buying.

It is possible there are mistakes in this, some knowledgeable people have discussed it but as far as I know none are particular experts in this area. None of this is absolutely certain at this point.

There have been some recent large purchases (7 million shares in one buy yesterday). That might suggest that some institutions (I'm guessing hedge fund) are aware of this and front-running the 18th. If that's the case, it's highly likely that they will sell when GDXJ buys and turn a quick profit. So that means the SP increase that you might expect on the 18th won't be quite so big, because we're getting some of the increase from it now, which shouldn't bother anyone. We might see a steady increase until the 18th as more people clue into this and then an actual drop on that day or thereafter -- but the floor will have been raised a long way, IMO.

Hope that covers it.

Elise, it wasn't CS that bought. They were agents buying on behalf of these people: https://www.sprottetfs.com/sgdj-sprott-junior-gold-miners-etf

Jerry, I had another look as well and you are right and I was wrong.

That suggests if there's another $2 billion actually tracking the index it is likely to come in the same day as well. (Although, it may take more than a day to work that much buy volume!)

I'm not persuaded there really is that $2 billion. I suspect the leveraged etfs are included in that amount and that they won't be buying actual GGP shares, or at least not very many. Owning the shares won't get you to 2x performance. They have to use derivatives.

FWIW, I agree with your assessment of the future of nuclear in the east.

The article said that he didn't understand why the Greta groupies are anti-nuclear. The answer, IMO, is in the history of the movement. Because of environmental carelessness in the West, the Soviets found environmentalism a useful way to destabilise the West and undercut its economies. They pushed the movement and pushed propaganda that stoked fears of nuclear to push for Western disarmament. Environmentalism became another argument for disarmament, which was obviously in their interest to encourage. And they used fear. So fear of nuclear became a rallying cry of the environmentalists and environmentalists and the disarmament types became allies. This is of course over-simplifying but I'm pretty sure it's the essence of why nuclear has become a dirty word in the environmentalist mindset.

In the long term, this could change. Eco-warriorism is practically a religion. All it takes is one of their beloved prophets / prophetesses to start to say things like, "Nuclear is better than spewing carbon into the air," and "If they'd just do it safely, it would be ok," and it might turn. I don't think there's any "hostile" funds pouring into the movement to keep it on track or aligned with disarmament goals any longer.

I wouldn't invest in uranium on the hopes of that happening but it's possible that a turn in eco-sentiment could juice the upside to this investment.

All my views only and I'm good at being wrong.

There's nothing magic about "on arrival". If tests on arrival only capture 7% then tests in the community only capture 7%. There's more to this story somewhere, and for some reason I find it hard to trust pronouncements like this.

Jerry, not according to the way I read it, but I don't have time to look it up tonight. And, as I've said before, this is not really in my wheelhouse so I could have it wrong anyway. Makes no difference to me whether it's all at the same time or varies by a few days, I'm not trying to trade it anyway. But it will certainly be fun to watch and see what happens (if it happens at all, of course).

I found this: https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-junior-gold-miners-bull-bear-2x-etfs

But I'm not sure whether they will actually buy the shares. They buy derivatives and other etfs -- potentially even GDXJ. They are trying to double index performance, so they are heavily leveraged, it's not a normal tracker. I don't know if they are included in that $8 billion or not.

Jerry, GDXJ rebalances a week after the index changes are announced. There's nothing that says the others rebalance at the same time.

@Spratt
The criteria is that they match an index (https://www.mvis-indices.com/indices/hard-asset/mvis-global-junior-gold-miners). The rules of the index are clear. The weighting will be based on free-float market cap as of 31 August. It's all in the Index Guide on the sidebar of that page.

I think the absolute lowest the weighting will be is 0.3%, and that's probably too low. Another poster (AM90? I forget) is obviously pretty knowledgeable and he guessed 0.8% or so, I'm not that optimistic. I'm guessing between 0.4-0.5 and hoping he's right and I'm wrong.

0.4% of $6 Bln is $24 Mln, which runs to maybe £18-19 Mln.

Jerry pointed out that the index says it is tracked by about $8 billion. If accurate, that's maybe another £6 Mln from other buyers besides GDXJ, though we don't know what those other funds are, so we don't know when they rebalance.

So if the more conservative 0.4% is right, we might be looking at close to £25 Mln coming in before long. If 0.8% is accurate, £50 Mln.

Exactly how many shares that is depends, of course, on how much they have to pay for them!

@hydro "I think it’s not inconceivable that we spike to 25p and settle at 21p"

I couldn't begin to put numbers on it but that kind of behaviour would not surprise me at all.

"Do we think Hedgefund Analysts read this board? Possibly... but unlikely. Unless you follow ggp closely how wound you know we meet inclusion criteria?"

I don't run a hedge fund. But if I did, I'd know the rebalancing dates and rules of every large tracker operating within our target sphere, and trying to identify potential additions at least a month in advance of the announcement. And I'd be watching them and if the price started to move up I'd buy, too. I wouldn't be relying on this or any other forum, I'd have an analyst on top of the whole thing.

Today's buy happened after the end of the month. It's month end values they use. So someone has an algorithm that triggered at month end, and they've bought. That's my guess. I hope I'm wrong and it has nothing to do with GDXJ.

@CB, the specifics of 4-6% don't matter much, that's really just the mechanics of trying to work a trade that big.

@Spratt, I agree. There's probably one day in the near future that they could move that many shares. So, either it's a fund buying for the longer term and decided if they want to get in, they need to do so now before GDXJ hits, that it will never be this cheap again. Or, it's a short termer like a hedge fund intending to sell on the 18th after a quick turnaround.

If the former, they might be done, it might be all they wanted. If the latter, they might well keep at it for a while.

Or, maybe we'll get an RNS in the morning and find out it was actually a sell and GH was top-slicing, LOL.

My preference is that it be a fund buying for the long term, but who cares, really? It's just a fun time to hold GGP.

So, let's be clear. A buy of approximately £1 million has bumped up the SP perhaps 4% today. What if GDXJ has a buy of £20 million?

Now, of course, today's buy could just be someone front-running that and they'll sell into strength when GDXJ buys. In fact, that's probable. So you can't say 4% times 20 equals 80%. And there may have been a lot more front-running already. But this helps illustrate why some of us think the GDXJ thing is big. Really big buys can have a significant impact, a lot of which (like today's, probably) comes in before the actual day.

Well, perhaps that explains the nice SP movement this morning.

@naph " if you think its goibg higher u maximise that"

Wrong. If you KNOW it's going higher you maximise that. If you THINK it's going higher you should hedge your bets.

"You let emotions take over the fundamentals."

Someone following their plan is not letting emotions take over, quite the contrary.

"Just seen a 1mil sell go through at 16.25..A bit daft to be selling.."

That £162.5K might mean someone is now mortgage-free, or retiring several years early. Or they might have 10 million shares and the price increase has them feeling it's just a little too much risk, and now they are on a free carry with 9 million left. Or maybe they want to start a new business and this is the ideal time to buy what they need because sellers are hurting. Or kids are starting school and they need money. Or maybe he just lost his job.

We all hope to take significant profits sometime, and we'll do so based on our own circumstances and attitude towards risk. I wouldn't sell at this level and this time, but congratulations to whoever just banked £160K, nicely done.