Member Info for TakingMyTime

@hydro "I personally don't think there was much was front running at all with this GDXJ. "

Hope you're right. Don't bet the house on it, that's all I'm saying.

If you're right, we might hit 30p. If you're wrong, we might not breach 22p. I'll be happier if you are right than if you are wrong.

"OMG TMT, losing respect rapidly, did you sell last week? You cant be that naive?!"

Huh? Where did I say anything that suggested THAT? Like I said, I think it is more likely to go up more next week -- but it's not certain.

There was a single 7 million buy. That wasn't just some PI who decided to take a flyer, that a cool million quid plus. There was 200 million shares bought by somebody the last three days. Some of that was news, sure. Are you sure it was all of it? Are you going to guarantee it for everyone, tell them to risk everything to buy in Monday morning at maybe 24-25p and guarantee it won't go pear-shaped for them?

Look at what other shares that go into this ETF have done. Some of them go up just like we have and then level off. Some go up in the last week before the buy. Some spike big time on the day of the buy and then drop off. Any of those things could happen with us. Nobody knows.

@merc
I'm pretty sure I understand how funds work, better than most here except maybe JS. This is how the hedge funds do it:

1. Hire a consultant who knows the MVIS rules inside and out and have them go through all the candidates in each index that has a big tracker, a few weeks before the rebalance.
2. Identify the ones that are sure to be in and the ones that are borderline.
3. Track the ones that are sure to be in and grab some shares as soon as others start to figure it out (i.e. when the price starts rising), or immediately after the rebalance cutoff date (in this case, 31/8).
4. Track the ones that are borderline to the rebalance cutoff date and see if they got in, then start buying.
5. Hold until the price rises, then decide whether to take profits before the buying date, or take the risk of going for max profits and hold until buying date.

That's exactly how they do it. The difference is that they have an expert consultant to tell them who's in and who's out. We were kind of winging it so we didn't have certainty. They do. Easy money. Why would they not follow that plan? The rules are precise.

I’m as stoked as anyone. I bought a lot of shares after we figured it out, because I thought we would never see the 12s and 13s again. But some things here concern me and I hate to see people getting hurt so this word of caution.

If some private investor nobodies could figure this out three weeks early, don’t you think the big boys could as well? They can, and they did. Maybe not when we did but they've been buying. Three weeks -- 12.8 to 19.9p. Some big money people know the rules, watch the trackers, front run these things, and it's been happening here.

They aren’t LTHs. They bought millions of shares to sell to GDXJ, knowing GDXJ would be buying a load. They’ll be queued up to sell.

Some of the increase might have been the news. Yes, we’re drilling Scal. Yes, Hav keeps getting bigger. If it weren’t for GDXJ, we might be up to 15p or so. But it isn’t Hav that took us from 13 to 20p, because the market still doesn’t really “get” Hav. So please do not do something foolish on the assumption that we’re going up to 25p or 30p or more in the next week. GDXJ has taken us from maybe 15 up to 20 already. It may or may not have more to run.

I’m not telling you it won’t go up that high. It might, and I'd be as happy as anyone if it did. But there’s a significant chance it doesn’t. Please don’t do something stupid thinking it is certain. It is far from certain.

The next week is likely very volatile. No one, including the MMs, knows how much front-running there has been. Those who try to front-run run a risk that it’s already over-done. Those who don’t front-run run a risk that they are missing a golden opportunity. To front-run more or not? No one knows. That likely causes volatility.

Those who sell early when GDXJ starts buying risk selling too soon and missing the peak price. Those who wait risk of waiting too long and missing the opportunity. Some front runners might sell any time this week, thinking they’ve made their profit with the recent rises. The price could bounce like a drunken kangaroo this week. There’s no telling what will happen.

The real value here is determined by Havieron, Scallywag, Panorama, etc. LTHs can enjoy the show as the price bounces and not worry about it. The GDXJ boost is nice but only really gets the SP closer to where Hav says it should be. If this gets you to your target and you want to take profit that’s great, but this should all really just be a side-show for anyone who believes in the value of GGP.

GLA and enjoy the show, but assume nothing. Anyone who tells you what the SP is going to do this week is either lying or confused. I think and hope it has higher to go but I really don't have a clue and neither does anyone else. It's a very, very high risk/high reward week to be trading this share, you could make some very bad and painful mistakes.

My view, for what it's worth, is that 'Eureka!' is great and 'You reek!' is not.

Celebrations, friendly banter, get-togethers, why not? People are human and are making friends here, in a world with not enough friendship, too much isolation, too much me-focus. I value that stuff even if I have to work a long day and can't really make it through everything.

Insults, gratuitous criticism of others, maligning motives without clear evidence, that I can live without. I don't mind calling out bad behaviour if it's clear and obvious, that kind of stuff detracts from the community. But abuse and unnecessary sniping, accusing people of lying when you couldn't possibly know, all that stuff, we could do without.

I'm not the board policeman, that's just my views.

@Jambo
That list is way out of date and would not be used for this purpose. It's almost a year old.

Good luck, MrEMC2!

@selecta6
Trackers have very low fees. You're not paying a manager to improve your performance.

With a tracker, depending on what it is tracking, you might lose 0.1-0.2% a year on this stuff. With an actively managed fund, you try to plan your buying as inexpensively as possible, and usually do so as a result, but you also pay the manager a much higher fee.

You get to choose which kind of fund in which you invest, a dumb tracker (that people can take advantage of this kind of thing) or an actively managed fund.

I don't know why you keep posting on other people's motives. I'd suggest giving it a rest.

There's very friendly relations between most posters on this board. I don't see any significant deramping going on. I see LTHs who have been posting for a while admitting that they've top sliced because of their personal situation or their personal strategy. Good for them. Not for me, I'm holding for the next big find after Hav, and maybe the one after that, too. But if someone who's 71 wants my opinion on whether he should top slice to redo his bathroom, I'd say good on you, mate, go for it. It's a personal opinion on what I'd do if I were in his situation.

I might suggest he might want to wait a couple days. I think chances are good we'll see 22-23p and maybe higher, at least temporarily. If I were him, I'd wait and watch to see what happens.
But there's a risk we might also never get that high, too. Maybe you don't understand about front running. If there's been enough of it, we might not go much higher at all.

Schadenfreude and infatuation are not the same thing. I don't begrudge anyone gloating a little bit over him missing out on the recent rise.

Better to learn from it and not make similar mistakes in future in my own investing, though.

@Jambo, what list are you looking at?

Let's remember that there's a skewing of the markets when new assets enter a tracker, but it's small in the overall picture. It's huge for us, but not for the ETF.

They are going to put 0.44% of their money into GGP. Perhaps the advance knowledge that they will do so means that the price will be skewed by 5-10% compared to if they just did the massive buy without announcing it. So, perhaps it's a difference of 0.02-0.04% to the value of the tracker. That's actual money, no doubt, but hardly a game-breaker.

This happens with all trackers. People can look ahead and say, "Hey, looks like Homeserve is going into the FTSE100. I'll buy." Price goes up, then the change is announced, then the trackers buy. It's not ideal but the skewing is small compared to the total index / tracker fund.

@Jambo
If MMs hold and haven't disclosed, then they presumably haven't disclosed to MVIS, either. So I don't see how that could impact the free-float numbers.

FWIW, I suspect MMs have been quietly building a lot in the last few weeks in anticipation of this and that next Friday/Monday may disappoint some people. I think we've probably already got a lot of our SP increase from GDXJ.

Remember, when we clued in to what was happening, the SP was 12.8p. We're already up 50% since then. Some of that, at least, is front-running and MMs will already have some shares ready to sell GDXJ on the day. I'm guessing they already have at least some of them now. These people are not stupid, some may even have spies who read this board, once we started to clue in to it they'd have done their research and started to acquire cheap shares in preparation.

Anyway, since their holdings are not published you'd think they'd have to be included in the free float.

@AM90
I don't get it, either. I also wondered about nominee holdings but that would be crazy.

Depends on if you are trading or investing. If you are looking to make quick trades to make a quick profit, using a stop-loss can protect you if things go wrong and it doesn't go the way you thought it would. Note, however, that the protection is limited. If your stop loss is at 100p on a share and the price suddenly drops from 105 to 90, you'll probably get 90, not 100. But at least if it drops later in the day to 80, you'll be out at 90.

But if you are buying a company because you believe in it and intend to hold it for the longer term (investing), why would you want to sell when it is low? That's the time you hold. You only want to sell those shares if your analysis of the company has changed.

I never use them. I only buy shares I intend to hold because I think they are good value at their current price. If the market perception of them changes and the price drops lower, I don't want to sell-- I might want to buy more, instead. So using stop losses is completely against my interests.

They aren't buying 2.3 billion shares. That is the number of shares they used to calculate the free float number that they use for weighting. I don't know how they arrived at that, doesn't seem to fit with how I read the rules. But like I said before, I'm not an expert on this stuff.

2 deletions has to be the heavy hitters at the top, doesn't it? None of the bottom feeders were at risk of dropping out, I think. If those two are gone, percentages are higher!

"lol my bad...tbh, think some here could afford membership of Wentworth with how it keeps going..."

DYOR, eh? Yeah, that's the same thought process several of us went through that weekend.

"No, we miss on this." "Wait, we dont!" "Well, we miss on that." "No, not that either." "I think we're in!" "Yeah, but what about...." "No problem, see this?" "WE'RE IN!!!" LOL

@Dodge
GDXJ is an ETF (not an index). The MVIS index that underlies it announces its review tonight. To get in you need a certain market cap and certain liquidity levels, and to either have a certain level of revenue or have a prospect that is expected to produce revenue. People like AM90, Jerry, and Paddy have all clearly read the rules carefully. We all are optimistic (they may or may not be as optimistic as I am).

If we are in, then the GDXJ fund, which is a tracker, will buy the shares in the index, in the ratio specified by the index, next Friday. We think we'll be somewhere between 0.4 and 0.6% of the index, though there's a chance it could be higher if some of the top holdings in it are no longer considered Juniors.

If it is 0.6%, because GDXJ is a massive fund, they'll be buying maybe £30 million worth of shares next Friday. No one knows the impact on the SP.

I think some of the increase we've seen the last three weeks is because Beetham isn't selling any more, and because of the good news. But I also think some of it is "front-running" -- individuals and perhaps institutions figuring out what we figured out and buying in before GDXJ. Those people may just be looking to sell next Friday when the SP surges. If they do, the SP may not go up as much as expected -- but a buy of £20-30 million pretty much has to push us up higher than we are now.

That's the story, pretty much.

If GDXJ buys, they'll hold for three months, and then then index resets again. Depending on what happens between now and then, they'll either buy more then or sell some then.

IMO, the GGP ride has become a wild one, at least for the next few months.

IMO, 95/5. I wouldn't have said that before close of play today because I wouldn't want someone to buy on it, but that's how sure I am. I bought on it.

Revenue not required for junior explorers if you have a mine-able asset that is going to produce revenue. We do.