Member Info for TakingMyTime

mylsemt 38p
Spinrock 33.3
Oz_in_UK 33
mercedesman 31.75
Dce2020 31.5
Dimvestor 30.0
Deecay 29.6
Wallyboy515 28.0
Gratomo1969 27.6
CountTheChickens 26.25
Mrs TMT 26.1
SomewhatGullible 24.3
mushroomkid 24.2
TMT 22.8

Jester16 loser :)

@fallenpoppadom "Cant really understand why riches are being promised tomorrow."

Every share is different. Yes, I think a lot of this is overblown. I posted a warning about that this weekend and caught a lot of grief for it. I don't think this takes us to 30p, for instance.

But GGP has some things going for it that a lot of shares don't.
1. A very clued-up shareholder base that includes a lot of people who aren't going to give up their shares at 20-25p. The available shares for GGP are probably lower than a lot of companies because of this site. People are going to sit on their hands if offered 22p. In most companies, if you went from 12 to 22 in three weeks a very large percentage would take profits. Maybe not here, though.
2. More phenomenal results on Thursday. Few gold explorers have a "This is a Tier 1 mine" RNS a day before the MVIS announcement.
3. Mining Lease approval just came through. Few gold explorers get a "This is actually going to be mined" release a day before the MVIS announcement.
4. Scal drilling results are expected soon and this board is very, very optimistic.
5. MRE expected and it's expected to be big.

Because of all those things, GDXJ may find it hard to buy the shares. If so, the price may go way up.

I think there's been a lot of front-running by hedge funds, etc. Others think not. If I'm right, we still, I hope, get another 2-3p increase, or thereabouts, once it all shakes out. If I'm wrong and there's not much front-running, I expect we're going to increase more this week.

That's my thoughts, but no one knows what is going to happen. Some spike a lot when GDXJ buys in, others not much at all. Hard to say. We've increased 7p in 3 weeks -- some of that was anticipation of GDXJ, I'm quite sure. I don't know how much of it was.

Spinrock 33.3p
Mrs TMT 26.1
mushroomkid 24.2
TMT 22.8

Hi, Rock. Lots of conspiracy theories that market makers trigger the stop losses intentionally. Maybe they do, maybe they don't, I'm not aware of any hard evidence of that. It does seem like it creates a vulnerability to manipulation. There's so much volatility in the market, especially when volume is low, you can have sudden spikes and sudden drops. It's less of an issue with a big high volume share like BP or something.

The main thing, though, is I don't want an involuntary sale if I believe in a company. There's no reason to have a stop loss if you think the long term value of the company is higher than today's price. The only reason to have it is if you aren't quite sure of risk/reward value, and if I'm in that case, I don't want to own it.

Good luck with it. I'd really recommend you work on studying the different aspects of the market and how it works before investing. It's easy to make bad mistakes. It's even easy to make bad mistakes when you understand.

Your prediction for the closing price according to LSE on 24/9.

That's after GDXJ has done their buying, all the short term profiteers are gone, LTHs that said, "Wow, I'm top slicing" have done it.

It's still this quarter so don't expect an MRE by then, but there might well be Scally news, it would be just like GH to drop a Scally RNS, if good news, a week Tuesday right after the GDXJ thing to keep the momentum going. So where will we be at COP a week Thursday?

The winner gets bragging rights for a month, which is rare, and also gets a personally addressed post right here on this board from TMT of less than ten words, which is rarer.

I'll leave this open for any suggestions before 0800 tomorrow morning.

My prediction 22.8p.
Mrs TMT 26.1p.

Wrong question, Mush. The really interesting thing is where it settles out. I'll do one of those.

@RTC "Just been perusing the VanEck website and have found that a junior miner with 0.44% holding is Westgold Resources Ltd, which is valued at USD1,640,000"

You're looking at the UK subfund. The US fund owns 16.3 million shares of Westgold for a market value on Friday of $28 million (USD), or around £22 million.

No, they reset every six months (next reset is in November). So that could happen in November, but more likely our weighting will be higher.

But Sprott does illustrate an ongoing benefit to being included in GDXJ. It seems likely that money will keep pouring into GDXJ over time. As money comes in, what do they do? Invest it. Where? In the companies in the index.

So being in GDXJ is not just a short-term purchase of GGP shares. It also means that if GDXJ grows, which is likely, it means on-going buys.

"Thanks mate. What a bloke."

On the ggphelp site you can click on buy him a coffee to say thank you.

Sprott has had net inflows over the last three months of $15 million. Around 5% of that will have been invested into GGP, as per the index weighting. That's $750K, or around £550-600K. At around 15p / share, that's around 4 million in new buys that will have happened in the last three months.

The weighting will have gone up because our SP has gone up.

It's all good news because it probably means in November they'll have to buy even more at their reset.

No problem, merc, I didn't think you got personal, strong disagreement is cool. No offence taken, but apology appreciated anyway.

Agreed, AM90. Another thought, though. It's possible SB did us a favour. By depressing the SP in prior months with his selling, he made it look to front-runners like the base price for this is 12p, when it's higher than that.

So, let's say a hedge fund was looking at this on Wednesday, wanting to get in before the announcement, and what do they see? It's gone from 12p to 17p, and they think, "It's already had most of it's run, that's 40%." They're not analysing the company, they're analysing price movements, and the price movement has been huge anyway.

So it's possible that the news-based increase and the removal of the Beetham-brake effect on the SP has held down some of the front-running in our case. You wouldn't want to front-run if you think the uplift has already happened, so maybe some of them got scared off. If that has happened, we could have further to run than I think, and hydro and merc will be back rubbing my nose in it a week from now (and I'll be loving it if it happens, LOL).

Hi, Jambo. The MVIS index guide (available on the sidebar of their index pages, including this one), defines free float:
"The Indices are free-float adjusted - the number of shares outstanding is reduced to exclude closely held shares (amount larger than 5% of the company’s full market capitalisation) from the index calculation. At times other adjustments are made to the share count to reflect foreign ownership limits. These are combined with the block-ownership adjustments into a single factor. To avoid unwanted double counting, either the block-ownership adjustment or the restricted stocks adjustment is applied, whichever produces the higher result.

Free-float factors are reviewed quarterly."

Maybe there's something about foreign ownership limits involved? I'm not finding anything that helps with that.

But Jambo, where's the list that MVIS used to arrive at 2.3 billion? That list you are talking about is disclosed at the AGM. For MVIS to exclude the shares that MMs hold, they'd have to know how many they hold, wouldn't they? And it doesn't have to be disclosed.

Basically it looks like we've got around a billion shares that they excluded for no known reason. I'm not saying your theory about MM holdings, etc, is wrong. I'm just saying I don't see how the mechanics of it could have worked.

My insults? Not worth it, filtered. Hope you enjoy your life.

23 August 22:04
"5. Again, if we are right, hedge funds and other institutional investors may be picking up on this soon and starting to drive the price up. They won't be LTH, they'll be selling as the ETF buys. So the increase may happen in the next week or two."
28 August 7:52, 10:56, 12:49
29 August 10:26, 15:23
1 September 10:50, 14:43, 15:27
2 September 11:02
3 September 9:52

From the very first weekend this was discussed I talked about hedge funds front running this and some or all of the price increase might come in early. I've discussed this all along.

@earthling, you said "Name another day before yesterday where you were anything but rampy?"

I posted Friday before the news came out that I thought it was 95/5 we were in. I've been very optimistic about us being in, and about a price increase. But about front-running and that the price increase might come early?

11/9 21:58, I said I thought some of the rise is front-running.
10/9 20:52, I talked about front-running.
8/9 9:40, I said this:
Sep 2019: https://economicalpha.blog/2019/09/13/mvis-gdxj-junior-gold-miner-q3-etf-rebalance-the-latest/

The last one is interesting because it shows price performance Royal Nickel, added 3 months earlier. It's a cautionary note for those thinking GDXJ changes the GGP world. Huge price spike due to GDXJ, basically gave it all back.

I expect GDXJ will mean a rerate and we won't give it all back but the main thing driving this will always be what happens with Hav (and secondarily, our other prospects). The GDXJ thing is a lot of fun but that isn't what makes a company.

7/9 14:24, I said this:
No clue how much it will spike. A lot of buys driving the recent increases, some of them big buys. Are they traders looking to sell to GDXJ on the day or are they investors who realised they need to get in ahead of the 18th (and maybe ahead of the 11th)? Will we get the entire price bump before the 18th and GDXJ just be buying out all the short termers? Could happen.

6/9 19:00 I said this:
Since this discussion started the SP has gone up by 3p, including some very large buys, one of 7 million shares. So it may be that some buyers are "front-running" this, buying in now at a lower price intending to flip the shares and take a quick profit when GDXJ starts buying (which would apparently be on the 18th). So they may find a bunch of ready sellers which may suppress the expected price increase -- basically, we're possibly getting some of the expected price increase early.

Is that enough days before today, or do I need to go back and find more? I've been talking about front-running all along. It happens all the time.

I'm totally guessing, Dce. No one knows how much front-running there has been. Hydro thinks practically none and he's a smart guy. I think a lot, but enough for GDXJ? If you want a guess, I'm going to guess not enough, and that there's further to run.

I do expect the next 7 trading days, at least, to be very, very bumpy until it all shakes out. I expect it to shake out between 20-25p but I'm guessing wildly. It could end up right where we are, or it could end up at 30p.

I don't think it will drop from here, that would surprise me a lot. I just don't buy the assumption we must go to 25p or 30. Would love it if we did but not persuaded.

@merc "The GDXJ categorically says that “managed funds” CANNOT be allocated prior to announcement. No front running."

We're talking past each other. I never said GDXJ is front-running. They can't. Hedge funds and very possibly MMs have been front-running. It just so happens that THEY can read the rules, too, and figure out who is getting in -- so why wouldn't they?

@earthling, if you are talking about me you are an idiot.

I don't trade, I invest. I moved funds around like crazy on 27-28 August after I confirmed to myself we'd be in, to max my investment here, and it's going no where.