Member Info for TakingMyTime

@fallen
Hedge funds. Brokers / MMs. Some PIs. Anyone who can read the rules of the index, look at the size of the fund, and say, "Man, if I figure out how this works I can see where the big buys are coming in three weeks in advance, get in ahead of the rise, and sell at a profit."

We saw it coming, and talked about it here three and a half weeks in advance. I know of one broker that put in a million a week later and cashed out and took their profits on Tuesday because they didn't know what would happen Friday. Others no doubt held until Friday and sold into the GDXJ buy, or the price increase would have been greater.

Doesn't matter now anyway. If there's more profit-taking to come, it will come. Won't last long, we should be up more by the end of the week at the latest, and probably sooner.

@Holla, 100% correct.

To add to which, if a managed fund DOES buy, it still proves nothing. They make mistakes, lots of them. Neil Woodford did his research and got it wrong. If anyone said, "Oh, Woodford bought GGP, it must be good," they'd be laughed out of existence and rightly so. DYOR.

@MFU, the only way we drop out of GDXJ is if the share volume drops below $0.6 million (USD) per day (never happening with this share) or if the market cap drops below $75 million (USD) -- around £55-60 million. If that happens, we've got much bigger concerns than GDXJ.

If Antipa dig a tunnel one night from their tenement and sneak under Hav and steal all the gold, we might drop out of GDXJ.

The other way is if we sell our share of Hav and pay out a big special dividend. After the dividend, the SP would drop a lot, and we might drop out of GDXJ then. I'd be surprised if it happened exactly like that, though. I suspect even if we sell we'll retain a royalty stake which should keep the SP high enough to keep us in the index.

@FSA, would be good if lots of people reported it. We've seen that spam before.

@smalltrader
POG is interesting. Just like GGP, started an upward trend in late August. Not as big a trend up as we had, but we had good news along the way. They, on the other hand, have had some board instability and had a broker downgrade on the 17th. Some people apparently don't like me saying it but it looks to me like their GDXJ entry was heavily front-run, and the entire SP boost came before the GDXJ buy.

Inclusion has still been a great thing for POG shareholders. SP up around 20% over the last month despite the news flow being (on balance) negative. No way to tell whether they'll drop on Monday or not, though. It may be that their profit-taking is already done, and they'll go up again. Glad to be invested here rather than there, though.

@Tony, not a prediction, more a "could happen, don't be fooled if it does" thing.

Hope you're right about someone building a stake. Certainly possible and the market has to wake up to this sometime. If you are right we will find out soon enough. I think Hav alone puts us in the 40-50p range (and probably more) once the market wakes up. The market "waking up" is a strange thing, though. A share can be undervalued by almost everyone for a long time and then suddenly it becomes something all the cool kids (er, fund managers) want a piece of, and it takes off. It's not always logical.

@Viking "From my view and not including the UT transaction, there was a lot of buying which overshadowed easily the sales figure."

No doubt. But if no one had been selling they'd have had to abandon the day-long tree shake and drive it higher to get the shares they needed. Too bad they got away with it, but that's life.

@Jerry, interesting thoughts on the MMs. Yes, I could easily see it panning out that way, a tree shake first thing in the morning, then a rise through the day as they have to cover their shorts.

Seems like a risky game for them to be playing, though. They have to know that a Scal RNS could drop in the morning, and to have gone into the weekend with any shorts at all seems a little crazy. But they probably made enough money on Friday to give themselves a lot of room.

No rush on the weighting thing. Obviously, it would be nice to know if we have another huge buy coming in December, but the fact is, we're now in an environment where we could have a huge buy coming in at any time from other places besides GDXJ. The world has changed for GGP due to the last results and the mining lease, and GDXJ has merely helped the SP catch up a little bit to the reality.

You know what, fallen? I shouldn't have posted that last one. Your motives are your own and I have no call to suggest you had a bet or something. I apologise for that.

If I had done what you are suggesting I wouldn't be telling people to hold for the value and not get fooled by a drop, that any drop is temporary. Why would I be saying that if I was hoping to buy on Monday? Your suggestion has no more basis than mine did.

Done for the night. Good luck all.

@fallen
No, I wasn't looking for that when I looked at them and I can't give an example, if there is one. It's the reason I've said any drop, if it comes, will be temporary. It's why I've said all along it would be crazy to be trading this share.

I'm going to turn this around. Why are you so desperate for everyone to believe it MUST GO UP on Monday? Why do you care so much? What's so special to you about Monday? Got a bet on it or something? Why does even the suggestion it >might< drop bother you so much? What's the problem? Are you that insecure in your investment that you can't stand to see a down day or even have it be mentioned as a possibility? I can't imagine you are, your posting history doesn't suggest that. So what's the problem exactly?

I could extend that question to others as well.

Thanks, threeturn. Re: Scally, I'm pretty optimistic. Those NW holes are really, really intriguing. Why would you drill more than one there if you didn't find anything?

Well, Spratt and earthling (I unfiltered you to see what you'd said after Spratt referenced you), I warned last weekend that there would be a lot of volatility but the long term value here was great. I took some abuse for it, but the volatility did hit the last two days. The uber-rampers never warned anyone about that, but I did, and you, earthling, didn't like it and were abusive. Since you're still singing the same song, I'm filtering you again. Too bad, sometimes you say things worth reading, but I'm not interested in the abuse.

Spratt, I don't get it, but if you want to filter me, ok. The fact is, a drop Monday / Tuesday might happen. MMs might play games. People might take profits. If that upsets you to read it, if you don't think it is good to give people a heads up to that, and remind them of the long term value, then filter me. I won't be filtering you because you say things worth reading, but will try to remember not to reply to you.

Good luck to you.

@Holla, understand you now. Very good question. I believe a fund would have to hold more than 5% of the company for their shares to drop out of the free float. But if they did, you'd be correct, it would reduce the number of shares eligible for the free float. I don't know, however, if MVIS excludes Van Eck's shares from the free float. I'm guessing they don't.

@fallen
Hope you're right. If you are right, my warning people that there might be a dip on Monday will have done zero damage. They'll say, 'Man, that TMT is a pessimist and he was so wrong.' Cool, being wrong will be good for my soul.

Suppose, though, that you are mistaken. If people with little market experience had no warning, they might panic and do something they'd regret. If they have a warning that it could happen, but it has no negative impact on the medium or long term value of their asset, they are less likely to panic. That's a good thing.

Have you done ANY research on what happened to other companies the day after GDXJ bought in? A lot of them do have a dip. We're different, so maybe we won't. Some drop permanently. We won't do that either way.

If you can show me that all the companies that go into GDXJ hold their value the following Monday, I'll shut up. History says quite the contrary.

Again, I hope you prove to be right. Not that it matters to me personally. I'm holding. The MRE is coming. So is Scally news, and Goliath.

@Holla, I'm pretty sure they just fixed our free-float numbers and recalculated the percentages for everyone in the index. So I don't see that mistake having any impact going forward.

I'm not sure I totally understood your question, though.

@parry, if you want me to click on a link on a BB, don't make it a tinyurl one. Thanks.

Thanks, Jerry. Hope you're right about this week. Hadn't thought about MMs going short. Why would they have closed the deal at less than the 35p bid if they were short? Seems risky to me, but I must admit am not an expert on how they work.

This time is different from Sprott -- with Sprott, they didn't get all their shares on Friday, so they had to come back for some on Monday, and that kept it going. Pretty sure GDXJ got all of theirs.

Part of my thinking is that there may be some LTHs that had targeted 25p, and will now get out, or at least top slice. Monday seems like a day for profit-taking. I'm guessing, though, and very bad at timing markets.

I'm going to give my logic on this weighting thing because I can't see where I'm going wrong. If you can set me straight, would appreciate it. If I'm right, all the better:

1. Our weighting was set based on end of August MCAP, SP about 15p. That gave a 0.66% weighting, resulting in £33 million. That meant, at 27p, close to 120 million shares.
2. Assume a price of 27p still on 30 November. That should give a weighting of about 1.18% (if the rest of the index is stable). That's £53 million (assuming stable exchange rate).
4. The 120 million shares will still be worth £33 million.
5. Therefore, if the price is still at 27p 30 November, they'll be buying £20 million or thereabout.

There are two key sub-periods. The first is from end of quarter valuation (31/8) to the ETF rebalancing (18/9). Any changes in SP during this time unbalance the weighting. The second is from ETF rebalancing (share purchase) to end of month valuation. Changes in SP during this sub-period don't unbalance the weighting, because they are reflected in both the MCAP of the company and the value of the ETF's holding.

So, if GDXJ bought at 15p, changes after that would not skew the weighting. But changes between the valuation point and the purchase point do skew the weighting. As long as SP stays above 15, GDXJ is going to be buying again in December. How much they will buy depends on how far above 15 it is at the end of November.

That's my logic, shoot me down if I'm wrong.

Yeah, me too. Smashed all my rules to bits.

@mickey "That’s why it needs to be considered as still showing very little bought on the VanEck list"

It's also still showing 9/17 (that's Thursday). They haven't showed Friday's transactions yet, so obviously it wouldn't show there yet.

I don't know, Mickey. I agree he's no dummy, though maybe a wee bit rampy.

Perhaps there's other stake-building going on (at times it looked like it) and he's heard about it, and mixing up other stake-building with GDXJ on Friday. It's not necessarily a case of either/or, it might be both. But Friday had to be GDXJ.