Member Info for TakingMyTime

And I hope you're right, napth. But if you aren't I won't be disappointed because I expect the actual gold, when all is said and done, to be twice or more what's in the MRE.

No, it's the road to his 200 millionth wife. :) Not sure whether he's lucky, exhausted, or both.

@napth
You talk of what we "know" but what we know is only estimates by non-professionals. And the MRE is going to be cautious based on drill results, not on any speculations. It's only going to include that which has been proved up, and proving up takes a lot of drilling.

One specific example, the northern breccia. Everyone knows it is there, everyone is pretty sure it's going to be economically viable to mine and worth a lot. But how many holes have they put in it? Just a few. So will it be included in the MRE? Not likely, they haven't proved it up.

What's the northern brecchia worth? Let's say it's 1 moz, just for discussion. That's 1 moz that isn't going to be in the MRE.

Our crescent, we are now told, is an oval. How wide is that sulphide zone at the northern end? No telling. Not enough drilling to say. Is it worth something? Sure. Will it be in the MRE? Probably not.

Or, if these things are in the MRE, the estimate for them is going to be very, very conservative, because they haven't been proved, we have no clue of extent, depth, etc. A lot of gold is not going to make it into the MRE, even though we "know" it is there. We do know -- but not how much.

Please, please everyone remember, the E in MRE stands for "Estimate" and the "M" for the first MRE stands for "Maiden". There will certainly be a lot of gold in the ground that is going to be mined which will not be reflected in this first MRE.

Hav might be 15 moz and the MRE might still only be 5-6.

Please do not hype the MRE and then have you and others discouraged when it doesn't come in that high. An MRE of 5 moz would be great -- it probably means that 10 moz or more is coming out of the ground eventually, and how many junior explorers have a resource like that?

I'm hoping for something over 6 moz for the MRE, but if it's only 4, it won't change anything at all. There still might be 15 moz or more. It's just an initial estimate.

I think this board is on track to do with the MRE what we did with GDXJ. Overhype it and then leave everyone discouraged when reality doesn't match the hype. We aren't likely to get a massive MRE and we don't need one.

Good morning, Christophe. Why would Rio make more sense if it's primarily a copper find? Telfer is still close, it was a copper/gold find, their mill handles copper and has plenty of capacity. NCM doesn't turn up its nose at copper, they are producing a lot of copper at Cadia, too.

@Broom, nice post, good thoughts.

I think we are so used to increases in the GGP share price being news-driven by sustainable news, that when a different kind of price increase came along, no one was prepared for it.

A few people looked at how GDXJ affected the SP of other companies and so were not necessarily shocked by what happened. But even most who did that probably got it wrong.

Of course, the correction was undoubtedly magnified by what happened in the market at large as well. Both shares and gold got hit. If that hadn't happened we might have ended up with not quite such a sharp correction.

Hope we all learn lessons.

Good point about no tweet, Dodge. Hadn't thought of that, am sure you are right.

@Dodge
I thought I was conservative, too, at 22.6, and I was wrong, too. I said that thread was just for fun when I started it but I found it very instructive about investor psychology, don't you think?

I agree, I don't think the 27p will be our all-time high by the end of the year. But it will be driven by things that actually affect the value of the company. Things like GDXJ can help us get the share price to better reflect company value, and I think that it has helped, but what a ride! Yes, I'd have loved to see the GH/CB response -- but I suspect they knew GDXJ often triggers this kind of stuff.

We're at 20p, though! With all that's happened, Mrs TMT still has her first full-bagger ever! Six weeks ago we'd have called someone who predicted 20p before the end of September a ramper!

Have a great weekend!

"mapp - you say "AIM is not for investors""
Indeed, well said, Dave.

AIM is risky for traders and investors who get spooked by short term price movements. For those ready to really research a company, and leave their money invested over time, there's money to be made. You will lose some and win some, but the winners can be really, really big. You have to stay the course through trading volatility but winning companies become winning shares eventually.

This was on another thread but it so reminds me of my father, who taught me to invest by taking me step by step through all his investments and his reasons and his concerns.

Tymers: "If you all stop the clock now today and looked ahead and had a risk factoring of 1 to 10 ie 1 being 0 risk to 10 being High Risk where do you place GGP investment currently?"

What's your risk factor for short term, medium term, long term? What would change it? What would increase it, and at what point would you decide it was too risky? Does the risk-reward dynamic justify the investment? What would decrease the risk?

If you have considered risk factor changes in advance, then you will often recognise them immediately when they hit. If that happens, you can move (to add or sell shares) quickly to readjust your risk/reward balance and risk exposure more quickly than perhaps others will, and be ahead of the market.

For me, a big risk factor for this investment was that full benefit might not be realised due to SP being too low and so a low price takeover succeeding. That's why I loaded up when we figured out GDXJ was buying -- it removed that risk as well as most / all of the short term risk.

So, what's your risk factor for GGP and what would change it?

Short term, on a scale of 0-10, my risk factor is about 20, LOL. Long term, it's about 1. If Sandeep went to Rio it would concern me that it might damage the NCM/GGP relationship, but even then, NCM still needs Hav at least as much as we do. I'm pretty well convinced our share of Hav is worth above 40p / share, so risk is very close to zero at 20p.

What's your risk factor and what would change it.

Agreed, Bamps. Although I think the 6p assumes the rest are byproducts that help to push the AISC lower, like at Cadia. Even so, happy days.

"Silly question maybe, and mostly in ignorance but what has the effect of GDXJ had here?"

There are different views on that but I'll give mine. 22-23 August, SP was 12.8p, and we figured out on this board over the weekend that we were almost certain to be in GDXJ. I was so certain that I went from about 18% of my investments in GGP to 40%, something I never thought I'd do.

You can see the price history. We closed at 19.9p on the 11th, the announcement was 10 pm. Some of that increase was due to some really good news (drilling results, mining lease), but I'm convinced at least half of it was due to people buying on GDXJ expectation.

Once it was announced, things went crazy, up to 25p on Wednesday. Then, a couple things happened (again, my view). Some who had bought in earlier took profits, rather than wait for the uncertainty of the actual buy-in, also some LTHs took profits (we know of one on this board who paid off a mortgage, another LTH said he sold out as well), but combined with that, the market makers engaged in a massive tree shake to try to collect enough shares to satisfy GDXJ.

That lasted for two days, and then at close of play, GDXJ bought their shares at, as it turned out, 27p. It didn't last, it never was going to. Massive profit taking this week. Perhaps also more tree-shaking by MMs to harvest shares -- they might have gone short a little bit to feed GDXJ and so needed to pick up more shares.

Net effect, in my view, is a gain of about 7p in the last month, over 50%. I'm guessing half of that is due to good news and half is due to 120 million shares being taken off the market and put in sticky hands.

This is my view only, others have different thoughts on it.

"I am very keen on Fibonacci numbers"

LOL, would definitely take that.

@Spratt "Sorry TmT you believe the drop this week was just profit taking, including yesterday’s drop?"

Primarily, yes. I want to preface by saying I've never worked with a MM so I could be wrong, but this is my theory.

I believe there's been some big sells coming through. The MMs are taking time to fill them and so the spread is moving down before they are filled, so it looks like a buy. Nobody is dumping 5 million at a pop or anything like that, most big sellers are smarter than that, but I'm guessing a lot of these big "buys" are actually sells.

I don't want to say there hasn't been a tree shake here and there, I'm sure there has. Why wouldn't they, especially if a bunch of short term traders from the last couple weeks set stop losses? Harvest those stop losses, for sure. Undoubtedly some of that.

But people keep posting that they bought. I think you did. So if you were able to buy at the low prices, that says it was a real price, not an artificial one.

Again, I could be wrong and there might be more manipulation than I think. But remember, there is more than one MM and they all want your business. Manipulation is limited unless they are all in cahoots and that's not likely to be the case that frequently.

Glad we're still talking to each other. :) ATB

"Is 20 the new 12?"

You mean, we might sit here at 20 for 5 weeks or so and then shoot up by 65% to 33p over a month's time?

If so, I'll take that.

Personally, I'm not persuaded by the conspiracy theories about MMs and hidden buyers, etc.

If anyone was thinking about taking a big stake (more than 3%) in this company, whether a mining major or an institutional investor, they'll have done their due diligence. They'd have known GDXJ was coming. If they wanted a big stake, they'd have probably started building it back in August before GDXJ was on most people's radar.

I just think we've got a lot of profit-taking going on, and thus market volatility. It's less today and is probably winding down. I thought it would be done by now, and we'd have started to rise again. I expect next week will be upward, perhaps significantly upward.

@Bamps
"so 6m oz is an out of date figure but as he says better to air on the side of caution."

Well said. Didn't Numis use 3p / moz, risked? And we've become significantly less risked since then, so maybe 4-5p / moz if their values were right. In which case, 6 moz would mean SP of 24-30p.

We don't have to have a 30 moz MRE (and we won't) for this to be phenomenal value. Even 10 would blow away today's SP. I'm expecting more like 8 and would be happy with 6, because even 6 would justify a re-rating. Does anyone who has researched this extensively really think it is less than 6 moz? Does anyone really think that a 20p price is justifiable if it is 6 moz? I don't.

The rerate may not come until the MRE, but an MRE of 6 moz should boost the SP, and anything 8 or above should turbo boost it.

I have several thoughts on this.

1. You guys discussed sanity. Sanity is overrated -- if anyone doesn't agree with me, just look at the last two weeks of GGP.

2. MVIS probably does not include options in free float MCAP. Therefore, these employees are really only doing this to boost our weighting at the next rebalancing, because they love the shareholders. Honest. Nothing in it for them at all. LOL.

3. Since these are not directors their sells do not have to be reported. They/he have certainly sold some of these shares to pay the taxes. They may have sold them all -- paying 2.5p to get 20p seems like a savvy move to me, and more power to them. If so, this may have contributed to the drop this week.

4. Glad we're using options as part of the compensation package, makes the cash last a little longer.

@Dodge
Great post describing what happened. As for this: "He was right, he probably didn't want to be right,"

I absolutely did not want to be right, and I did not profit from it. I didn't know it would happen. All I did was say it might happen. If I'd known, I'd have sold a bunch of shares at 25 and loaded up at 20. Too bad.

No complaints, though. I knew we'd have a surge, and loaded up at 13p in late August. We had the surge. It was bumpy to get here but if you'd told me a month ago that my 13p was going to turn into 20p, I'd have said, "That's brilliant." Too bad it isn't 30p. But I put a lot of money (for me) in at 13p a month ago, and my wife thinks I'm a genius (which has benefits besides financial, LOL).

Stay calm, everyone. There's a lot more upside than 20p to come, I'm sure of it. The MRE is still coming. More drilling at depth. Decline starts in less than six months, probably. GDXJ buys more shares in December -- likely more orderly this time. Maybe Scally or something else hits big and this once in a decade share becomes once in a lifetime. I consider that a strong possibility.

Watered down but without the numpties seems pretty appealing right now.

There's no info to be had at the moment. The only info to be had is that we had a sky-rocketing price, in part because of excitement over the GDXJ buy-in, followed by a typical bout of profit-taking, probably in part from some short-termers who jumped on board for the GDXJ and in part from longer term holders whose target price was reached.

Possibly the MMs have taken advantage of that to close out some short positions. Lots of people think they are manipulating, I'm not so persuaded.

But that's the news. Here we sit, with a SP at 20 when it was 12 six weeks ago and everyone is upset because they thought it was going higher, and it briefly seemed to be. But that higher was based on hype, not on news. The news is good enough to justify a higher price but the news is not why people bought and drove the price up to 25-27. So when their reason for buying was gone, they've been selling.

And those who didn't know how these things worked and believed the rampers that last Friday was going to drive the price over 30 and it would from there just launch even higher, those people are upset, frustrated, depressed.

It's hard work to read all that geology and specific gravity and copper concentration and think about what those other byproducts are, it's hard work to think about AISC and toll processing fees and CAPEX and all that stuff. If you'll do the work you'll feel pretty confident about this share and decide the current SP is way too low. Or trust Bamps on that if you are too lazy.

Don't buy GGP because GDXJ bought in or because they are likely buying another big swathe of shares in December. Or if you do, don't get upset if you get bit by the very share volatility you tried to leverage.

Now we're onto the next big hype thing, mergers and acquisitions. These things happen if they happen when they happen. Don't trust some lion or some bowl of soup on a bulletin board. Do the research to find out if we've got an asset that sustains the share price. If we do, buy and hold. Maybe you'll get lucky and an acquisition will come along some time and make you richer than you expected. Maybe not and you'll end up getting nice dividends for the rest of your life.

These people with "inside knowledge" are just as likely to be LTHs who are pumping while dumping, or STHs who wanted to take a profit and want to ramp the price back up to where they want to sell. Those with inside knowledge of M&A activity who spill it publicly are liable to prosecution, so those hinting around about it are, 99% of the time, just lying or deceived by something they heard.

Well said, Elise.