Member Info for TakingMyTime

@Loggy, so now they've removed it there, too. LOL. It's still out there in the wild, though, LSE can't police the whole world. It's been copied to another relatively public place. There's still nothing untrue in what I said. Bizarre, given LSE's own rules (5.b, 5.c, and 5.d) that they removed my post calling out people for breaking those rules, but it's their site to do with as they choose.

"I think we are very fortunate on this board to have quite a lot that contribute so much."

I totally agree with this. Anyway, thanks for the comment.

@Loggy it's here: https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/takingmytime/
8-10-2020

It's all true, of course. Perhaps someone deleted it because they thought it was targeted at just one individual, but we've had a spate of these "I'm the keeper of the secret knowledge" comments from several sources recently.

"Trust me" is the total antithesis of DYOR.

Come on, people, change the thread title.

The question is legit (whether the questioner is or not), the answer is -- "assets".

Out again.

Actually, Nige, I don't care if we have that 50% drop as long as we hit that 2.5x you are talking about. Would be fine with me if you get back in cheaply, I'm in it long term anyway so it doesn't matter much what it does in between.

It's not just Covid, of course, it's also Brexit. I suspect that's the biggest difference between us, in that I expect a temporary blip and then to have Brexit be a positive, while I think you expect it to be a bigger hit in the short term.

Eventually the housing shortage will outweigh other factors, on that we're agreed.

Hi, Nige. I'm very happy to say you've been wrong about the builders' drop so far, and hope you stay that way, it's one share I'm still in. Definitely got out of some other stuff and good timing, too, feel very fortunate about that.

@poppy
https://www.grammarly.com/blog/verb-tenses/

"Getting slack"
Why do they not teach kids the difference between present tense and past tense any more?

@Paddy -- oops, that will teach me to trust a FM, LOL. He's using your number and 1 g/t obviously -- if your number is right, 1 g/t seems very reasonable. We've all seen the results from NCM. It really is interesting that he attributed the 15 moz to you, though. Hmm.

@Bully, you forgot 30% tax. And you should divide the net by 4.2 billion shares, rather than using current MCAP which doesn't reflect contingent shares.

@Bamps, thanks for a thought-provoking post.

"To suggest GH relies on PG's calcs....errrm nah!"

To suggest that is what I was saying....errrm nah!

There's perhaps more than a microscopic difference between "relying on" PG's calcs and maybe tacitly accepting them with a hint that there's even more there. I suggested the latter, not the former. Feel free to point out any flaws I missed in what I said, but not flaws in what I didn't say.

Thanks for coming to play but you don't get to substitute the ball we're using for a different one with no air in it and then complain about the game, LOL.

Ok, I really don't have time to get into defending this, it's there if it helps anyone, but as noted already it includes some uncertain speculation. GLA.

"Is 20m oz not 60pTMT?"

Do you want my honest opinion, Mickey, or my, "Man, I don't want to sound too rampy" opinion? My honest opinion is your prior predicted price is in serious jeopardy, and well done for changing it. But I do not know if we are selling our gold in the ground or keeping it, and if we do sell it, what we will get for it, so there are too many unknowns. But in my view, it's locked on that we'll be at least 50% above current SP based on known reserves.

Tuesday I liquidated two assets and put more here, smashing my diversification rules further. I expected little from Monday. I came away amazed. I’ll give my reasoning.

Facts:
1. GH follows Paddy on Twitter.
2. GH knows of Paddy's 15-30 moz estimate.
3. I've never seen a fund manager name-check a PI as WM did. Unprecedented. Some FMs may respect some PIs but they assume PIs can't possibly compete with their own research.
4. WM is no fool. He's a well-respected fund manager.
5. He didn't just name check Paddy, he commended his calcs / research.
6. GH emphasised the cemented breccia is not getting enough attention – from whom? Not the market as a whole, because the market is clueless on Hav.
7. Paddy's calcs, as near as I can tell, do not reflect the higher concentrations (the cemented breccia) discussed by GH on Monday.
8. GH and WM likely spoke very recently, in prep for Monday.
9. GH knows Paddy is avidly watched, and will see Paddy’s views as highly representative of the shareholder base.

Speculation / conclusions:
1. Since both WM and GH follow Paddy, chances are high Paddy's resource calcs were mentioned between them whilst prepping for Monday. If so, GH would be very careful, but could basically let WM know (without explicitly saying) what he thought of Paddy's calcs.
2. In any event, WM has nothing to make him doubt Paddy's estimate, either from GH or his own research.
3. I’m concluding GH thinks Paddy's calcs are reasonable (or low).
4. I’m concluding his emphasis on the cemented breccia means not just “the market” is underestimating Hav, he was telling us we (as represented by Paddy) are, too.

I now assume an eventual resource of at least 20 moz, probably more. I was working off a baseline of 10-15 moz (hoping for more). It's huge.

20 moz, at $400 / oz for gold-in-the-ground, is over 30p / share just for Hav. And that's conservative, $400 / oz is very low. I’m sceptical of some AISC numbers suggested, but compared to most gold-in-the-ground sales, it’s going to be low AISC, low CAPEX, and early production start – and lots of potential buyers.

So, I bought more. Just like in late August, I thought we’d never see 12-13p again, I think we’re departing the low 20s very soon on this share.

I sound like a ramper, reading too much between the lines. But I'm blown away by WM citing Paddy, just after GH said something that must mean he thinks Paddy is leaving out something important (whether thinking about Paddy’s calcs specifically or not). Willem knows what he’s about, and fund managers don’t cite PIs as a source of research or value estimates. That’s partly a well-deserved tribute to Paddy. But it also means we should pay attention and maybe even read between the lines.

DYOR, I might have made a mistake, don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose, all the usual disclaimers. GLA.

"I get exactly the same information as you do - if you go to the company website you can see all the publicly available RNS announcements - I'm sure they are not put on there just for my benefit."

Oh, come now, Paddy, you really should make full disclosure. I'm sure you also read Mr Heddle's tweets, too. LOL.

For the idiots: the reason Paddy is trusted here is because he doesn't ask people to trust him. He gives the source of his info and his reasoning. We don't have to trust him because he tells us how he did the research and we can do it ourselves to verify.

Yes, am on sabbatical but asked by a friend to post something he thought would be useful to others, so plan to do so later. But it is very related to this topic, so decided to comment on this as well.

Just watched the presentation, stopping in long enough to say congratulations to Paddy on the name-check. Must be somewhat satisfying. They've got their own analysts but their work is confidential so he cited Paddy's, which is public.

I'm out again, but worth saying befor I go that I know something about how these fund managers think. WM is very confident or he wouldn't have said what he said. He's not a PI, his wealth is in his reputation and he's not going to risk it without being quite sure. He has little to gain by ramping and much to gain by being cautious, and he suggested over 15 moz.

GLA

Hi, wilfie. Based on past history I'd guess the next dividend will be March. If trading is A LOT better than anticipated they could bring some forward, since it's been a bad year compared to normal, but I doubt they will. If all goes well March's dividend should be better than the recent one.

Hi, Bamps, I knew you had it backwards but the distinction was still sound. I believe Sandeep used the word "inferred" recently, someone else will remember when. So I suspect inferred is coming. I agree that people will be disappointed if it is indicated. I don't know if they do a hybrid where they give both an indicated and inferred amount? That would be interesting.

I really do need to let this go for a while. It's not because of Spy, I just got tired of him playing the know-it-all and dissing other people when he's done some stupid stuff, too, so I thought I'd remind him, LOL. That's not why I'm taking a "sabbatical". Real life, mostly. I knew work was going to be blowing up on me, and it's started to.

I do plan on being back, and may pop in briefly if we get big news. BOL.

Hi, Bamps. Did some thinking about this yesterday after signing off, thought I'd come back to you on this.

I think you are probably right and that we're going to get an inferred estimate, rather than indicated, and that gives scope for a higher number. If they are going for inferred, which it now sounds like they are, I think that means they want it to be big, which means your numbers are likely to be better than mine.

BOL to you, Bamps. Be back after a while.

@Spy "Too many Know-it-alls on here...... they mostly know jack schit about what's going on."

Yeah, it is a problem.

Look, I enjoy your posts. I suspect you really do know people who work for miners. But for someone who posted the following to say others don't know what's going on is a little rich.

I give you all Spymaster25 himself:
22-9-2020 20:19 "Should see 26p tomorrow with some luck."
20-9-2020 09:56 "30p is coming end of month"
19-9-2020 18:51 "Another Huge buy will drop very soon."
16-9-2020 10:47 "We have big buyers trying to get in before the fund. i expect to see a raft of TR1 a some point. Far too many are concentrating on this week/next week. massively bigger picture here."
15-9-2020 20:52 "There is a 50m buy winging it's way in apparently."
12-9-2020 20:49 Responding to my warning that people should be careful if it went to 25-30p, he said: "There are people far more understanding of what's coming before 30th September, I doubt your in that group."
12-9-2020 13:09 " I think we will get MRE around 7moz by mid November."
11-9-2020 22:38 "RE: Who's seeing an SP of 25p" was the subject, he said, "No doubt mickey, that's a minimum Monday I reckon"
7-9-2020 22:17 "Far too many variables to know if this GDXJ rumour is actually valid or not." (TMT comment -- who knows what's going on, then?)
14-8-2020 08:07 "Nobody will make a move until NCM show their hand."
(TMT comment -- ooh, our man has inside knowledge on what the BODs of Newmont, Barrick, Rio, Anglogold, etc, are all thinking! NOBODY will make a move before NCM!!!)
24-7-2020 08:57 "But as seen all year, this will drop a bit then pick up. SW drills start in August, expect the SP to be moving again by then." (TMT comment -- yeah, it did move -- down to 12p.)
22-7-2020 23:44 "20p in July. All non-believers, jog on...."
22-7-2020 16:47 "I stopped but that does not mean I no longer pick up whispers. i do, just dont post it."
(TMT comment -- glad you cleared that up)

I thought these two just belonged together for some reason:
15-9-2020 12:05 "Lenz, i dont want to be labelled as a ramper....lol"
14-9-2020 21:43 "Hey mickey. You hoping for 30p this month?"

II won't be surprised if Spy is right about 40-50 by the end of the year, I won't be surprised if he's right about the MRE, won't be surprised if he's right about this going over a pound and a possible bidding war. But this guy is still full of (a word that Mrs TMT doesn't want me using).

I'm taking a sabbatical from this board for a while. Still holding, my target SP is £1. But this board just isn't much fun anymore. GLA. Maybe I'll be back in a month or two, the biggest news is probably not until December anyway. Hope you all enjoy yourselves and achieve your investment dreams.

"I have been told categorically by contacts at 2 separate companies "

To be clear, and to lessen the chance of it being removed, neither of those companies are GGP or NCM, right? So this is not legally insider info, this is industry chit chat, right?

So LSE should not care that you've posted it.

Nor can we safely assume that your contacts have certain knowledge. Useful for us to know that's what people in the industry think, and appreciated, but it isn't locked-on, and we use that information in our decision-making at our own risk.

@Bamps, I'm not in much doubt there's that much gold there. But isn't the initial MRE usually more cautious?

@Merc "6-10m oz sounds sensible. Remember Telfer MRE was 8m oz and ended up being 30!"

This is a big part of what's driving my thinking here. If it's 8, we can probably expect over 20 and maybe 25 or more. At six, I'm still going to be thinking it is likely to end up 15-20 or more. And if we have 15-20 moz of gold, a lot of us will end up very, very happy even if we hit absolutely nothing else of value at Scally or elsewhere.

If the MRE is 10, we're on our way to £1 / share, IMO.

Just to say, I'm still invested here but this board is intolerable. Might or might not check back later.