Member Info for TakingMyTime

Probably means the mods are cleaning up the politics, LOL.

"If anybody wants Uranium exposure at extremely low MCAP, then have a look at THR who acquired high grade Uranium & Vanadium deposits in USA."

If anybody wants a different kind of uranium exposure they may want to look at YCA (which I am in, full disclosure). A uranium holding company which is currently trading at a significant discount to the value of the uranium they hold.

"Thx TMT .. if we were all perfect eh !"

I am.

I keep telling Mrs TMT this. She seems to be a slow learner on this topic, mind, but I still have hopes for her. It's harder because she bought into GGP before I did, and she somehow thinks that's evidence of my imperfection.

For those taking a pop at Lenz, yes, he made a mistake, but he's not the only one.

Anyone who is expecting a similar rise for GGP from a Scallywag RNS is making the same mistake.

To be clear, Wishbone's RNS has added what, £5 million to their market cap? That's a huge percentage increase, but let's remember, the market has said that RNS is worth £5 million. The market may or may not be wrong but that's how much the market's valuation of the company has moved.

If we get a Scally RNS with some results, it will be actually results, not nearology (like theirs). So that should be worth more, right? Maybe even worth 10 times as much (£50 million on our MCAP). What's that? A little over 1 pence. Maybe the market will value positive results 30 times more than nearology. If so, we might even see a 4p rise.

Sure, if we get 120 m @ 9.3 g/t, with less cover than Hav, we might see more, because that would suggest it's very likely worth mining. Maybe we'd go to 30p, that would be cool. That would also be adding about £300 million to our MCAP.

You can't compare the percentage increase in SP that others see from an RNS to our percentage increase. You have to compare the MCAP increase -- and because we've got a massive asset that is at least getting some recognition from the market, our MCAP is massively higher than these other explorers, so the same MCAP increase is not going to result in the same percentage increase.

How come everyone taking Lenz to task for his error is overlooking this one that others are making? Maybe we all make mistakes....

To be precise, December is another rebalancing. It might be a large buy, large sale, or not much change at all, depending on the weighting. The weighting will be based on the free-float market cap at the end of November. At this point, it looks like a substantial buy (though not as much as the first buy), but this remains to be determined.

But in between rebalancings, they will buy or sale based on net inflows/outflows into the ETF by investors.

When investors buy the ETF, they have more money to invest. They invest it in the shares they own at the same ratio determined at the last reset.

When investors pull out of the ETF, they have to sell some of their shares, which they do at the same ratio.

If they own more shares it is because they've had more new investment into the fund than they've had money withdrawn from it.

Again, TTB, I hope you are correct. But the key word there is "potentially".

We've got a different kind of investor now. No longer can you buy a million shares for a thousand quid, so you do it on a wing and a prayer. Now, you are buying an asset, and even if you are underpaying for it still, you ARE paying for it. That means the share price is driven by researched investors rather than "my mate/dad/brother-in-law/co-worker told me so I'll throw a few quid at it."

For the sheer speculation investors, a "possible" Tier One is enormous. For the more careful investor, a "possible" Tier One is "interesting and that would be really cool but I'm not throwing money at it, nice bonus if it happens."

Due to Hav, GGP attracts more of the second type now. Yes, the fact that Scal is 100% owned is appealing on the surface, but a find at Scal is probably at least 5 years from production if it stays 100% owned, so that diminishes the value. If we JV it, then it might produce very quickly, sure -- but then it won't be 100%, will it?

I can hold this for up to ten years, so none of that bothers me -- another big hit at Scal is going to give me a very nice retirement, better than I ever thought. Eventually, though, not this year, and probably not next.

US Invesco Gold and Precious Metals fund, 574K shares, bought in July, now reporting.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership

Funds usually report three months after their transaction, so we should see any other funds that bought in July showing up on this report by Monday or Tuesday.

It will be the next 2-3 months that I find particularly interesting, as we see if funds show up that bought in August and September, when we launched from 12p to 20p+.

(Tracker ETFs like Sprott and GDXJ typically report immediately because there's no secret about what they are doing, their investment rules and procedures are transparent.)

@Condorlini, that's a fair point, in that if Callum has figured out how to find buried gold, and it proves out twice, it just might prove out again.

@ttb, "No longer will the market be able to value us just on Havieron."

The market will do whatever it wants, LOL. Remember, it's taken nearly two years for the market to come close to valuing Hav as a Tier One. Even now, the market doesn't really get it. I'd expect a similar timeline if we find another Tier One at Scal, though are factors in play that could speed it up to your timeline. But what I hope might happen and what I expect probably would happen are two different things, and what you are saying fits a lot more with what I hope than with what I expect.

ATB

@Bebeto, great comment, I agree. So many of those factors are different from the time when one really good hit at Hav brought a significant upgrade in SP. Different company now.

We'll probably get Scallywag results soon. We've had so much ramping of this share based on Scallywag expectations. This can damage some shareholders when the excessive speculations don't come off and some shareholders get discouraged and sell. In the short term, this can actually hurt the company and the rest of us, because if the price drops due to panic, it can make us vulnerable to a low-ball takeover.

1. It's not likely the results will include an announcement of a JV/Farm-in with NCM (or anyone else). If the results are good enough to move the price, the best thing for GGP would be for GH to announce good results, and then talk to NCM (and maybe others) -- just like he did for Havieron. Don't get sucked in to that speculation and then disappointed if there's no JV/Farm In immediately. That will certainly be an option before long if the results are good enough.

2. Scallywag might be a duster. If so, Hav alone is still worth more than the current SP. It was before we learned about the eastern breccia, which might be better than anything we'll get at Scal! Disappointing results from Scal would be no reason to sell shares. Some will, though, if they've been led to believe that Scal is the company maker/breaker. Don't get dragged into thinking Scal is key for this company. It isn't. Hav alone makes GGP a winner, Scal is just one of our other targets, one of several.

3. It might be encouraging. We might get a hole with 342.2m @ 2.0 g/t Au, with some Cu thrown in as well. That would suggest the possibility of an economic-to-mine resource! We just got a result like that in a place where no one knew there was gold, and the market shrugged. We're no longer a company with MCAP of £3 million that will skyrocket at the first good result. If we get that kind of result at Scal, people would notice, but it's no guarantee you'll have a mine, and the market may not move much at all. The rampers will get embarrassed and those who believed them might get hurt.

4. It might be spectacular, say 120 m @ 9 g/t Au. If that happens, the price might move a couple pence and there will be 43 posts about how the MMs are holding the price, and some people might even get disillusioned and sell.

Scal probably only puts a rocket under the SP when it becomes likely that there's enough there to mine. One set of results isn't going to get us there.

I'm becoming optimistic about Scal. But don't expect the SP to lift off because of Scal -- it's not very likely to happen. If Scal turns out to be a huge hit for us, awareness of it will build over time, and the SP boost will be gradual, not all at once. Don't buy the hype, there's no need to. The upside here is still huge, whether Scal hits or not.

I did this before I knew about the reports of 12 drills. It makes no difference. I did it because of my investment strategy and because of my confidence that this was a good move.

I see now that the 12 drills thing appears to be confirmed. Is anyone actually surprised? Hasn't everything said that NCM wants to hurry along getting ore out of the ground? If there's more drilling that needs to be done before starting that, is it really surprising they'd look to add more drills to further the process?

GLA

@zoros
Thanks for the reply. I suspect you misheard but presumably if it has happened we'll get a confirmation very, very soon, in maybe about 30 hours.

"Thanks for assessing the rest of my post - should I be grateful?"

Only if you think my assessment has any value. ;) I suppose its value is one of those "eye of the beholder" things, LOL. Probably should have prefaced it with "FWIW, IMO."

GLA, expecting good news tomorrow!

@zoros "Box cut and decline started."

You've said this twice. Evidence?

Most of the rest of your post appears to be true, however.

"Hi All. It makes no sense to hold physical gold in a SIPP"

100%, speedy. Anyone who doesn't understand what he's said, please, take advice before doing this. Do not hold physical gold in a SIPP. You will just give money to Hector that you wouldn't have to give.

Yes, exchange rate shifts have their impact, too.

LOL, as long as you get the blind luck right, you're ahead of all the professionals.

The GDXJ shares were purchased at 27p. The dollar amount to be invested was based on a price lower than that but it was invested at a higher price, which means there should be a significant adjustment.

@Mush, things to consider.

1. MRE's tend to be smaller than expected. It doesn't mean there's less gold, it means the maiden estimate is always cautious -- they want to spare the maiden's blushes. It is possible, I think it is probable, that ours will be lower than a lot of people here expect, and that the initial market reaction will be negative, until cooler heads prevail and the SP recovers. If I am right, and you are needing to access funds, waiting for the MRE might be a mistake. Those ramping the MRE might not be doing you any favours. The SP will recover, I'm very sure of that, but if you don't have time to wait for a recovery....
2. It is common for GDXJ buys to see a big runup prior to the buy, and then a drop off. The drop off ends at a much higher level than the pre-runup price, but much lower than the spike. We saw this last time. The best time to sell, if you were selling was into the closing auction on Friday. But the Monday-Wednesday preceding were great times to sell as well, especially Wednesday. This time, that's the 15th. Behaviour may be far different this time, of course.
3. The size of the GDXJ buy is undetermined but is not going to be as big as last time and so probably won't have as much effect. This is determined by the SP at the end of November. You should be hoping it gets above 27p by then for the largest GDXJ impact.
4. Scallywag is a wild-card. If we have bad results, it's going to hurt whenever it hits. That's silly because Hav is worth more than our current SP but it doesn't matter, if Scally doesn't appear to be economical to mine, the SP will drop. If we get good results, it will go up. But there's no way to predict when this news will drop -- hopefully before December. Hopefully early enough that if results are bad we'll have recovered by the time you sell.
5. GH knows how to read the markets. It's possible he knows the MRE is going to be lower than a lot of PIs expect, and that he's planning to drop good Scal news on the same day that a lower-than-expected Hav MRE comes out, to support the SP. Would he do that? You decide.

Good luck with it all. No one can tell you what's going to happen, what the MRE will be, how the market will react in the runup to GDXJ, when Scally news will hit. But these things are all likely to be factors in SP behaviour in mid-December when you are thinking of selling, so things to consider. You'll know more by that time. Good luck with it, hope the SP goes high enough that you can raise the necessary funds whilst still holding some of your shares.

@fallen "asking for a friend"

In the interests of DYOR, is there any evidence you can provide that would make anyone think you are the kind of person who has a friend? Asking for a friend.

Hope you all (including poppy) have a good w/e.