Member Info for TakingMyTime

I think the US thing is accurate. I contributed to the confusion by saying one would be coming, it may not, or it may be delayed further due to the US thing. Sorry for not checking my facts more completely on this.

"Morning Hydrogen, Why are they buying more in December?"
Weighting is based on free float market cap. Higher price means higher market cap means higher weighting in December, if the price holds.

" Easy to say something was predictable when it’s already happened."

I did predict that it might happen. Check the board history. Got abuse for it but I was right.

Sorry, but we only have one asset that is going to be proven to be really big in the next year, and that's Hav. The bigger it gets the more it will cost to buy us out, but the bigger it gets the more resources NCM has, the easier it will be for them to get financing if they want.

The only reason they haven't made a move on buying us out yet is because it hasn't suited them to, and that's going to be the case going forward. If they decide to, they'll be able to. Might have to win a bidding war to do it, and that might leave them vulnerable to takeover themselves. But they'll be able to.

@Bamps, totally get your feelings. Totally. Finding it hard to stay engaged here. Greatly appreciate you, you were a huge force in my getting invested here. Now, I might get to retire earlier than expected, you've had a big part in that. All the best to you whether you go or return.

Prediction thread bump, in case anyone cares

@Dce, it was predict closing price on 24/9. Last posted 17/9 at 20:39. SP has some going to hit your prediction, LOL.

I think it needs to be noted that here, on this thread, on 22/9/2020, at 16:28, Paddy Gall accepted for his own the title of Pamper. :)

@strudel, to save anyone looking for it, it was me at 18:57. Not sure it really deserves a lot of credit. If there was no hope of a find at Scally it would still be the sensible place to put the road. Anyone who isn't ramping to the max would see that.

I mean, come on, it's a road. It's not the second coming of the World Trade Centre or the Taj Mahal. It really doesn't matter that much where you put it because you don't have to move it, you can always build another blinking road.

If it didn't go through Scal, and they end up mining at Scal, they'd then have to build another road from Scal to connect it to the Hav-Telfer road. That would cost nothing, nothing at all, in the overall picture. Sure, it's convenient if we happen to find gold next to it that we want to send to Telfer. It would also be convenient if we found gold 10 miles from it that we want to send to Telfer.

I might get a little rampy at times myself but I do try to at least maintain a semblance of critical thinking towards my own rampiness.

Yes, you can take it out. You'll miss out on any future share price increases, though, but there's no tax on gains on shares held in an ISA.

Congratulations on a brilliant purchase back then, by the way.

@schlemiel

My guess as the answer to your question:
Volume before last week -- people wanting to get in on the benefits of the anticipated GDXJ buy, and people attracted by the major good news, especially the mining lease approval, which removed the doubt of whether it would really be mined.

Volume first part of last week -- people wanting to get in on the benefits of the coming GDXJ buy.

Volume Thurs-Fri -- partly driven by people wanting to get in on the benefits of the GDXJ buy, partly by MMs trying to get shares to feed GDXJ, probably partly by some of the people who bought earlier simply deciding to take profits rather than risk the COP auction.

Volume today -- probably mostly driven by profit-taking, but there's a lot of appetite for shares. That's probably the feel-good sentiment about Friday's GDXJ buy and the historic highs, probably because the market is waking up more and more to what Hav is, more publicity over the weekend about the surge in our SP, and perhaps some other IIs besides GDXJ.

That's where I think the volume is coming from. I suspect there was a very high volume of profit taking today -- we crossed the 25p threshold, that was a likely target for a lot of LTHs and some will have sold or top-sliced. Also, there may be some who bought because of GDXJ a few weeks ago, only looking for a quick profit. They waited to see what Friday's close did and then took profit today.

In my view, today was a great day for GGP on the market, because the market tanked, profit takers sold, and we are still at a price we never saw before last week. Incredible volume but all is good.

@TT, thanks for the correction on reporting.

@Mahen, you should be careful with that. What if the price had gone up to 30? Then, you'd have either lost out on continuing to hold GGP or you'd have had to pay more to get your shares back.

It makes sense for Tom because of the number of shares he owns and the price at which he bought them, and the fact that he wants to move shares out of that account, anyway. If the price goes up, well, he wins by moving shares and because his other shares are worth more anyway, so it's not a big deal. If it goes down, he gets to buy more shares. He wins either way. But if you don't have a lot of shares, it's very risky for you.

Just because it worked this time for you doesn't mean it will next time. Be thankful it did, but don't count on it.

ATB

@mickey "Announcing selling shares on a BB is looking for validation"
Well, maybe, but since he discussed his tactics beforehand and asked what others thought of the approach it seems reasonable to report on how it went for him.

Hi, speedy. I remember you asking now and yes, it got lost. Sorry about that. The biggest implication is a lot of shares in sticky hands. Second biggest is it drove the price higher (I think we'd only be at 18 at best without it), which will make it more expensive to buy us out, harder to persuade weak-minded PIs to sell at 30-35, and offer now has to be at least 50p and probably more like a pound.

Also, a little higher profile but honestly, that was pretty much getting here among the institutions that might buy.

Others have written more but not persuaded about some of the things they have said.

I think you are right in that, as we trend upward (which I expect), GDXJ just becomes one of several larger holders. It's always nice to have a big tracker buying your shares, of course. Someone told me most trackers won't vote on takeover bids, but can't confirm that. If so their presence actually gives more power to the PIs, which is nice.

@TomE, glad it worked out for you. In your case, it's a good strategy, from what I can tell.

@Hydro "21-Sep-20 16:18:39 25.40 1,500,000 Buy* 24.50 25.00 381.00k Fund money that peeps."
You sure? I suspect HNW individual, and not sure how sticky it is (if who I think it is).

@Smouse, thanks for the info on DD drilling. Stuff I didn't know.

@strudel, it's good to be smart and better to be lucky. But for the evil of your ways, you must do penance and look up RRR's posting history and read the last 50 posts.

@Bronze_age, the road is going through Scally to stay on GGP land as much as possible on the way to Telfer. "We can cross this land that is ours, for free, or that land and pay Antipa gobs of cash, which should we do?" The rampiest interpretation of facts is not always accurate.

@Jerry, you don't sound surprised that GDXJ was the big buyer Friday. LOL.

All, no TR1 today. Has to happen within two trading days. Not exactly sure, since the buy was after COP Friday I guess it might not have to happen until before the markets open on Wednesday, but you can probably expect it tomorrow.

The SP dropped some today. Shame no one warned that might happen.;) Doesn't matter, it's temporary, just profit taking. Remember, as recently as 16 July the SP touched 11.9. Anyone who bought then has a full-bagger in two months. The gold is still in the ground, the market is finally starting to wake up to Hav, there's over 120 million shares in sticky hands and I'm pretty sure another big incoming GDXJ buy in December, by my preliminary calcs I think over £20 million. MRE is coming. II buying is likely if not here already. Even if corporate action doesn't blow us all away, I can't see any medium-term direction other than up, and long-term the upside is mind-blowing.

Good luck all. There's a strong case for adding if you have free funds and a stronger case for holding what you already have. All IMO and I'm wrong often enough, DYOR.

LOL, it wasn't a summary, just some of the things discussed on which I wanted to comment. Other things (like Bamps' discussions) I can't add anything. Bamps is a genius on mining and our assets, I just stand back in awe when he gets going.

One more. Steven, almost certainly no more now until the next index rebalance in December. At that point, it depends on the share price at the end of November as to how much more comes in, but at this point I'd guess in excess of £25 million. That is a guess, though. We'll know more on 30 November.

I'm just going to shoot out some quick comments.

1. Jerry, I get frustrated some times, too. I keep posting because some people, at least, say they find value in it. Won't cut them off because of some idiots.

2. @BR and others, Zak Mir is obviously ramping. But if Scal gives promising results or some other insto is building a stake, he might be right anyway!

3. All, shorting is a useful tool for risk hedging by responsible fund managers. It is also often abused as simply a gamble. Sometimes it helps holders because the shorters get caught in a squeeze, which serves them right. Largely irrelevant for us, shorters can't make the gold go away. They can only cause temporary aberrations.

4. Re: mining/selling. I really don't care how GGP monetises it as long as they keep finding more gold. Mine, sell, hold royalties, dividends, buybacks, whatever.

5. There is no "Motley Fool". Different writers, different views, just like newspaper columnists.
That they contradict each other means nothing. That most articles are poorly researched means everything. DYOR and you won't need MF, and will find them laughable sometimes.

6. Hydro, great post on the medium/long term value here. Essentially derisked even at this price.

7. Lenigas is knowledgeable but not to be trusted. If he's pumping he'll probably be dumping soon.

8. BR/zoros, I'll try to find out tomorrow why the small GDXJ buy on Thursday. An interesting question. Will let you know if I find out.

9. @RacingCyclist, I think we actually have to be producing gold to join GDX. Too bad, at this point we'd easily qualify on liquidity and MCAP. We'd rocket, obviously.

10. @Bully, re: dropping out of GDXJ for being too big, LOL, we've got a LONG way to go for that. Sprott's junior ETF, however, is another matter. $2 billion mkt cap. If Zak Mir is right, we'll be out in November for being too big. I suspect it won't happen in November but will next May.

11. All, don't get freaked if the SP doesn't behave the way you expect this week. More good news is coming. If we get a drop, it's not a trend, it's an aberration. The trend is still up, if not this week, very soon.

Good luck all.

All the best to you and your lady, Mushroom! Ever since I started reading here, you've been one who has tried consistently to make this not only an informative but an enjoyable forum. Hope your new adventure is all you want it to be!