Member Info for TakingMyTime

@desjwhite
ChristopheB first suggested it as a possibility, I think on a Friday night or Saturday. Several of us pushed on researching it through the rest of the weekend and became pretty sure that all the boxes have been ticked. No one claims to be an expert in this area, so we could be wrong. But also no one has identified anything in the rules that would keep us out.

I'm calling out TomE as a deramper.

Shame on you, 20p by Friday. Hang your head in shame, man. Quit talking down our share!

LOL. ATB, Tom, you got it and more.

@Jet, I agree. When we abolish income tax, inheritance tax will be justifiable. Until then, it's double taxation.

Inheritance tax is one tax for which I endorse all legal avoidance measures.

Thanks, Lifesagame, didn't see those. I especially liked this from Paddy:

"I think they are setting the stall out for a big inferred resource number that may include all the breccia in a caving operation. Of course that's years away yet and they will mine the high grade first as they develop the cave but I think they want the world to know that Havieron is gonna be a multi-decade tier 1 mine IMO."

Why? Because for anyone who thinks NCM might be trying to downplay what we have here to get a cheap price for our share, this says the opposite. They want everyone to know it's big, really big.

So it not only speaks well as far as the size of the asset, it also seems to me evidence that the working relationship is still good and NCM is not trying to play games to the detriment of the junior. Since I'm still in NCM, I'm happy for that on both counts.

Thanks, Jerry, hadn't seen the Hannam note. Interesting. You wouldn't expect them to have that much influence but this was ready to pop anyway, and it's a pretty optimistic note, isn't it?

Anything important happen in the GGP world whilst I was busy?

LOL. So, stellar results, mining lease granted. Looks like SP did little until the American markets opened, then flew.

I'm going to guess an American hedge fund or two is front-running GDXJ, and the results sparked them into action today. And the results meant no one much wanted to sell to them, and perhaps others got involved, too.

Also, MMs may be looking to grab some shares to sell to GDXJ, realising after today's news it might actually be hard to get the shares if they wait until the last minute. I don't think they are actually supposed to be doing that kind of thing but there are ways and means.

Lots of exciting money to be made, some big boys getting involved now I think, those of us who got in beforehand get to enjoy the ride.

Thanks again to ChristopheB for flagging up the GDXJ thing for us and AM90 for all your research on it. I did my own research to convince myself, of course, but because of you and a couple others who contributed to the knowledge share, I've made a lot more money in the last couple weeks than I would have.

I expect more of the same tomorrow. The opportunity is tomorrow for those who have figured it out before the announcement. Next week, those who try to front run will be in competition with everyone else who knows.

My biggest fear has been losing the company because of a hostile buyout at too low a price. Getting the SP up to a better level is the best way to defend against that threat. The drilling results show we're still a long way from a proper SP given the resource we're sitting on, but at least it's a lot better than a couple weeks ago.

Quite happy this evening.

Then he can use his rights to buy a lot of shares at close to 80p. LOL.

Why do the hens resent the fox so much? LOL.

@Soundman, thanks. The part about "depends on one's perspective" was meant to communicate tongue in cheek but it clearly fell flat. Thanks for your concern but I'm doing great and enjoying myself probably more than I deserve, as is usual.

Spy "Remember, it's just a guess."

Too bad, I hoped you'd heard it from a Canadian.

You asked this yesterday in response to a post talking about when they announce the updates to the index. If you look up GDXJ to see what it is you would understand. Or, you could look back through in thread view and find lots of threads talking about it. Do we need to recreate one of them just for you?

His have been deleted all the way back to yesterday afternoon. Probably all responses to them went with them.

Maybe they've finally decided it was too disruptive, if enough people reported him.

@AM90, nice analysis. I liked your 0.8% more even if I was doubtful of it. I do think my earlier 0.3 / 0.4 was understating, if we're in it should be better than that. You've had great comments on this thing all along. I do hope we're right, if we aren't, the usual weekend rumpus will be targeted at us this time, and there will be blood in the water, doesn't matter how many "not certain" disclaimers we've made. Really seems like the market thinks we're right, too.

@speedy, the move seems to be happening gradually right now but it's happening, I expect it to accelerate, personally. It's already happened substantively in my portfolio.

I include "land" among commodities, BTW (not everyone does). I'm also in a housebuilder and in BBOX. If we have crazy inflation, their assets should move with it. I'm also in ABF because food is the ultimate commodity and I think Primark's lower prices will also do well if inflation hurts people. I've got a spectrum of things I think will do well in a high inflation environment and then on top of it I've dropped this big wad of pounds into some gold explorer drilling holes into the WA desert. Way too much by all my rules but there it is.

It's getting trendy to be in commodities/PMs, which probably means we'll get a bubble but I think we're still well short of that.

This is not financial advice, which I'm not qualified to give anyway. A bunch of personal opinions. Knowing more than some others about how the markets work does not make a person better able to predict which assets the market will like next week or next year.

Jerry, I'm in management for a company that provides support services for the institutional investment sector. Probably don't want to get more specific than that, and am not on twitter.

Our main market is European and my division's main focus is equities, not metals, but we have enough clients in the US, and in different sectors, that I should have twigged to the sub-fund thing right off -- it's not a new concept to me.

It's contingency planning. Not expecting a buyout before next summer at earliest, but can't rule out it happening sometime in 2021 and I like to be well ahead of the game.

If it comes next summer I think a lot of it will be going into housebuilders. I understand the nervousness right now (and it's a much smaller part of my portfolio than it was as a result). But by next summer the Brexit uncertainty is likely to be resolved, Covid is likely to be well-controlled, and there will still be a housing shortage and a government that wants to encourage first time buyers. Central banks will still be printing money, the economy still will be recovering, so interest rates will still be low, but the money should be starting to flow and buyers looking to get in. I expect HBs to boom by this time next year.

Don't know if we'll get a Brexit slowdown in HB or not. Won't be surprised if we do but don't much care, the housing shortage will remain, any drop will bounce back.

@Tobler, I made the same mistake on the sub-fund, and given my work I probably have a lot less excuse than you. Don't kick yourself too hard, no one else should.

Here's a provision worth really keeping an eye on:
2. Companies covering the top 60% of the full market capitalisation are excluded. Only companies
ranking between 60% and 98% qualify for the selection. However, existing components ranking
between 55% and 60% or 98% and 99% also qualify for the selection.

If Goldfields and Kinross get tossed because they've breached that 55%, our percentage gets turbocharged -- effectively maybe take what our percentage would have been and multiply it by 1.12 or so.

Or, they might bump that 55% to 50 or 52.5 to keep them in to prevent tracking problems.

The other thing that might happen if those two are jettisoned is it might skew the gold/silver balance. If so, they might have to bump down the weightings of silver companies and bump up the gold companies a little bit.

Fun times!

@Tobler, you're looking at the UK sub-fund, if on your broker's site that's what they usually show because that's what you can buy here. The US fund was $6.4 billion, as RS just linked it's now $6.6 billion.

What's $0.2 billion, here or there? LOL.

@Spratt "the mid boggles"
My mid used to boggle all the time but during lockdown I exercised so much it's now pleasingly firm. ;)

Very unlikely to be 1%. AM90 figured it around 0.8%. But even if 1%, that would be around $64 million, at current exchange rate say £49 million to be put into GGP on 18 September.

If it's announced this Friday that we're going into the index at 1%, and £50 million will be invested on 18 September, the SP is going to be well above 20p by the time the 18th hits. It's likely to be above 25p. And if GDXJ is buying at 25p, their £50 million will buy 200 million shares.

There's no way they buy 300m. Not even close. If the buy is going to be huge, the SP will go up, which will reduce the number of shares. It will be shocking, amazing, glorious, spectacular, incredible, thrilling, marvelous, stunning, sensational (trying to help GH with superlatives here) if they buy 200m. It's likely to be 100-150m.

This SP rise that we are seeing right now is already starting to reduce the effect by reducing the number of shares they'll buy.
Not that anyone's complaining, LOL. The more it goes up between now and the 18th the fewer shares they'll buy.

Tig, that's bizarre. Perhaps someone said something on the thread that they didn't like and so they zapped the whole thing. I'm sure it wasn't you. The only comment of yours that I saw on the thread was a masterpiece to which no one could really object.

It must be hard to be a moderator, so I won't judge them harshly, and anyway, perhaps there was stuff I didn't see.

All the best to you, hope you can get your meetings going again soon!