Member Info for TakingMyTime

@AM90 "TMT - i think this seemingly controlled SP rise is exactly that - hedge funds etc buying to make a quick buck by selling to VanEck."

Seems very possible. If so, they also know that buying this week drives the price higher now, which means a higher percentage and VE buying more. More power to them, buy, buy, buy, LOL.

Just important for us to remember that the more that happens, the more they'll be cashing out and damping down the big rise on the 18th. So we're getting controlled rises leading up to it, probably still a very nice rise then, but we may be giving a little of it back after the 18th, too, as any who still have shares take profits.

@Matt
I recommend you celebrate now and then again when you get to 16.5p. And again when you get to 30p, and 31.5p.

Hope that helps.

Nice post comparing WAR, Hydro.

One caveat. If there's a lot of front-running going on by hedge funds and such, those people will be looking to make a quick profit and get out. So some of the ETF buying will likely be absorbed by quick-profit sellers.

I actually don't mind, if that's what is going on. Any opportunists who are buying now are pushing the price higher and so increasing our weighting in the index. It means we get some of the increase now, and less later. It's all good. If this is real, we're still going to see a really nice increase here.

Hi, ChristopheB, thanks for flagging this up for us.

So, what you are saying is they probably sell what they need to sell through the day (in the US) and then buy at the end of the day. If that's the case, the buys might not hit here until Monday 21/9. Wouldn't that be interesting! Especially for those who try to front run it and then sell on the 18th, LOL. If you sell on the 18th you might be too soon. On the other hand, if you sell on the 21st and all the buying is already done, you might have missed the best time to sell.

I read it. The writer appears not to understand the farm-in, thinking that it's for Scallywag and that if we mine it we could sell the product to NCM (??):

"Recently, Greatland commenced systematic drill testing at its Scallywag prospect area in the Paterson region of Australia. And things are looking good.

But, according to its farm-in agreement, if it manages to develop its product, it could sell it to its partner Newcrest. Alternatively, it could process the mined deposits at Newcrest’s nearby Telfer mine. "

Doesn't even mention Havieron.

Thinks that the GGP price rise is driven by the POG increase:

"So, although there is a market demand for investing in gold, I don’t think Greatland Gold is in the best position to take advantage of it. But, it’s this same gold-optimism that appears to be driving the Greatland Gold share price explosion."

It's Havieron-optimism that is driving the SP explosion, the writer doesn't have a clue, and she totally discredits herself.

Worth remembering that MF has different writers and they all have and express their own opinions. The next one may say to buy GGP. It may not be any better researched than this one.

"I can’t believe the US congress allow the president to use this platform to promote his opinions"

This wasn't serious, was it? Even if they passed something, he'd veto it and it takes 2/3 to override it, and then he'd challenge it in court and win.

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Hi, Bamps. Your rants are always interesting.

I think it needs a little time to shake out what exactly society is going to look like. Are the days of huge centralised offices in city centres over? Or will we get a vaccine soon and everything go back to the way it was? Will office buildings be turned into flats? Do people want to live in city centres? I was sure glad I didn't when lockdown hit and I could walk out the door and into the countryside.

I think there's one big issue about the "everyone work at home" push that no one wants to discuss. Very simply, too many people lack the integrity to be effective working from home. That's going to start to kick in before long. They might do ok most of the time if someone is always around and looking over their shoulder but with next to no accountability at home they struggle.

I don't know what should be done about town centres. I don't think there's any obvious answer. Even if government provides incentives, I don't expect most traditional house builders to jump on it. There's so much involved in building in a town centre, or converting existing buildings, that doesn't fit with the way they usually work. It might be that one or more big housebuilders would acquire some small specialist firms and use their expertise to expand.

I must admit I haven't given any of this as much thought as I should have.

Added HZM to my watchlist and almost bought it at 2.3. I'm not always as smart as I try to pretend.

@aidinandabettin
"Thanks TMT, so, more QE no move in POG, as this is expected by the markets and already in the price. No more QE, POG takes a knock, potentially."

Mostly. Unless I guessed wrong.

"What do you think will happen to the POG when the South Sea Electric Car company and its compatriots collapse?"

That one is more difficult, of course. I expect POG to move up in that case. Or down. It might stay the same but it usually doesn't. So, up or down. Past performance and all that. I reserve the right to change this prediction depending on what the Mrs cooks for dinner on the day and how it agrees with my stomach. It's only fair to disclose that my stomach is neither as volatile or as bloated as POG, so it could understate the upside. Or the downside, for that matter. If this is TMI, it serves you right for asking the question.

1. GGP
2. GGP
Tie for 3rd. GGP & GGP

"Hey TMT, bit of a noobz question, but what do you mean by the inflation protection is already priced in, is that gold is priced for QE or the opposite?"

To be clear, I said that I'm guessing "Average Inflation Targeting" is mostly priced in. This is a change in the way the Fed targets inflation that will mean almost certainly mean more QE.

When market participants says something is mostly priced in, they mean that it has been talked about so much and is so widely anticipated that a lot of people are investing as if it is reality, so when the reality comes it isn't going to have that much impact.

We see it with GGP all the time. The news, before it comes is "mostly priced in" so even good news doesn't have that much impact because everyone expected it anyway. That's not always the case but the market often moves before news, when the news can be reasonably predicted.

@spoon "Is the GDXJ stuff all speculation?"

I'd call it beyond that. You can read the thread over the weekend, or just look it all up yourself. GDXJ tells when it resets, and what it tracks. Then, you look up the index, and see what the index rules are and when it resets. Then, you look up GGP's MCAP (that's easy) and trading volume over the last 9 months, do the maths, compare it to the rules of the index.

Then, you conclude (or I did), yes, it's going into the index on 11/9, and so the ETF will be buying on 18/9. It's possible I've read it wrong somewhere but I'm very confident.

It's very difficult to predict the weighting and so virtually impossible to predict the size of the investment, especially since we don't know how fully it will be invested. But if I'm right about it happening, it will be substantive enough that the price should move.

@Paddy
"it's a tracker fund, it doesn't matter to then if the price is 1p per share or £1 per share.
They will buy the appropriate number of shares for the fund on the prescribed date regardless of the cost - the rules is the rules when it comes to ETF's - that's my understanding anyway unless anyone knows any different."

Mostly. But there's this from Page 2 of the Summary Prospectus:

"The Fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Fund’s benchmark index." And later in the same paragraph: "The Fund’s 80% policy is non-fundamental and may be changed without shareholder approval upon 60 days’ prior written notice to shareholders."

I'm pretty sure that doesn't change the dates or the behaviour. It might well impact the amount of the investment -- the fund will not necessarily be 100% invested in the index. That's partly because there has to be enough liquidity to fund redemptions.

@BR "How many times have you been burned to learn that one TmT?"
If I'm being honest with myself, I don't know or want to know. :)

Now that the CDC has changed their guidance on quarantine, something like this is almost inevitable. People will cheat but they'll probably have to affirm (with very punitive fines if they cheat) that they've not cheated. Most won't cheat, and the risk that those who do cheat actually have the virus will probably be quite low.

It's not like either place is virus-free, anyway.

Hi, Bamps. Your comment about where prices will drop and where they will rise is part of what makes me bullish on PSN. They build, for the most part, where prices are likely to be stronger due to societal shifts. But I do admit it is getting tempting to top-slice. And Novacyt does look appealing, doesn't it.

YCA isn't a miner. Uranium holding company, FWIW. But as you say, each to their own.

Targets move, you know. There's a lot of people that say now that of course they'd sell at 20p, or 30p, or 50p, or £1.

If we actually hit those targets, they may not. Maybe they won't because they are greedy and don't want to miss out on the next increase. Maybe they won't because drilling results, etc, have convinced them that their original target was wrong.

The difficulty with any share is knowing when to change your target price (upward or downward). You've made an assessment, it's getting closer, you need to reassess, but now you've been drawn in. Hang on just a little longer, it's got more to run!

Don't change your target upward out of greed or downward out of panic, change it based on solid research and firm conviction that the situation has changed or your original target was wrong due to incomplete research to begin with. You've got to be honest with yourself, and that's probably the hardest part of investing, and of life.

No matter how good Spy's agents are, they don't know what Powell is going to say.

I'm going to guess that Average Inflation Targeting is already mostly priced in, if it comes gold bumps up a little bit, if it doesn't, gold drops.

Oh, we have a >relationship< with Newmont, no doubt of that. LOL.

My guess (just a guess) is that the US isn't going to let Europeans in as long as the Europeans are slapping quarantine on Americans. And most Europeans aren't likely to do a deal on that until after the US election because they don't want to be seen as doing anything that props up Trump -- unless they have reasonably reliable polls that tell them it won't matter. But if the election looks like being close, they won't want to do anything to help Trump.